Posted on 08/23/2016 11:40:04 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Hillary Clinton is 16 points ahead of Donald Trump in Virginia, according to a new poll released Tuesday.
Clinton has 48 percent support to Trump's 32 percent among likely voters in the state, the Roanoke College survey found.
Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has 8 percent, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein got 3 percent. In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton's lead over Trump grows to 19 points.
The poll also showed improved favorability ratings for Clinton in Virginia. Thirty-nine percent said they saw the Democratic nominee favorably, while 45 percent saw her unfavorably.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
VA is never Trump HQ. The GOP led by Paul Ryan have given license to withhold support for Trump.
I have a Masters Degree and this poll is not worth $%&t. Their sample size is too small and their normalization of the data (massaging) using their predictive demographic models introduces greater than a +/- 5% error in the final result. In fact their error could be as big or even bigger than alleged lead that Hildy has in this poll. You need bigger representative samples of the demographic groups and this sample does not cut it.
The problem is that the Republican governors of Ohio and Wisconsin are at best lukewarm toward Trump and will not use their authority to suppress voter fraud.
Walker has been light years head of Traitor Kasich in supporting Trump. Appeared at convention, campaigned with Trump, etc. Ohio might as well have a Democrat governor for all the help dirtbag son of a mailman is giving Trump.
Well, it’s not like we don’t have some things in our favor.
I really do believe that there is a hidden Trump vote. Not only the few snowflakes that are intimidated into not admitting they support him, but more importantly, the great unknown is how many of the tens of millions of people that have never been inspired to vote show up this fall.
That said, in a state such as Virginia where polls show a double digit deficit, it is only being realistic to accept that winning that state is a longshot.
It’s still way to early to panic. We still have the debates, and the anticipated late advertising surge.
A lot of time to go still. And a lot can and will happen that we can not know as of now.
OH, FL, and VA were recent requirements; hard to lose VA as GOP and win; not impossible but very difficult
just a wild guess on my part, but somehow I think your logic is going to be overlooked on this thead...
The likes of Paul Ryan campaigning for Hillary hurts Trump most in places like VA. Those beltway suburb voters that are not Dems are mainline GOPe all the way, IMO. If the GOP wants the WH they need to get on the Trump Train now. Otherwise, it’s going to cost Trump in places like VA and OH.
This is really strange.
I appreciate your post. There may be a hidden Trump vote by people who will tell even pollsters they are voting for Hillary but may vote Trump in the booth, but it can’t be very large.
One big question is some Millennials haven’t made up their mind yet. I have two here. One knows Trump is better, clearly, even though he thinks Trump has problems. He will vote Trump; he’s just giving me a hard time. The other is apolitical and will need to be dragged to the polls. There are a lot like him. They will start paying attention, maybe at the debates, maybe in late October. We may have a lot of people to convince at the last minute.
They have a good scientific method which needs a greater sample size. They have too many factors to account for and their normalization of this small sample relies on extrapolating which introduces lots of error. The confidence level I would apply to this result is 55% at the best and I think this is a stretch.
Oh, no, no you can’t disguise...
If this is true, we should sell Virginia to the Chinese!!!;)
Very good post. I agree, Trump can win this, especially if he campaigns as he did during the past week. The trip to Louisiana was brilliant, and he gave excellent speeches on the economy, foreign affairs and to the black community, which has been too long ignored by the GOP. What he also has to do is ignore the personal attack responses; hard not to, but like today, there is ZERO to be gained and mucho to be lost from tweeting an attack on Joe Scarborough and Mika B. from Morning Joe; 99 percent of the American people don’t know who they are and could care less. Virginia is probably lost - Trump will win by landslides in the central, west, south and tidewater areas, but this will be more than offset by the NY/Mass dominated mess called Northern Virginia which bears no relation to the rest of the state and is by any definition, a godawful mess.
They have a map with no one winning yet, leaving a lot of battleground states as “grey tossups.”
actually, their no-tossup map has Clinton with 272 ev’s...
Some combination of Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania would put him over the top
none of those states has voted Pub since 1988...but then, that has to change sometime, so, maybe...
Rush told us this morning that the GOP registrations in all the battleground states are ahead of Hillary.
Of course, that means the registrations have to turn into votes .. but I’m beginning to believe it will happen.
A very thoughtful post, pleasant to read, lots of great points.
Hillary in my mind at this point should look like a ridiculous joke to anyone. A career criminal with felonies and murders connected. A woman with numerous symptoms of neurological impairment. Regardless of politics, how could anyone think she is fit to run for president? But they do. And they are somehow not ashamed to admit that to pollsters.
She is winning almost every state Obama was. There is not much critical thinking going on, just herd mentality with these Clinton voters. While you say that right now she “looks bad,” she sure doesn’t on paper, like these realclearpolitics maps. I don’t know which body parts could simply fall off her, what murders she really could commit on camera, and still keep these electoral Votes. Some, I’m sure.
It’s still a little bit early but not all that much. They will do ANYTHING to get Hillary in because then they can control the USA. We play honest so we are at a natural disadvantage. We need a righteous, moral populace in order to fight deception and fraud. We don’t have it.
We can do this. But it is going to take work, sneaky work. Getting out IN FRONT of what they try to do to Trump. He’s doing great at this. But we have to convince some of the most sheeplike humans on the planet.
Extremely anecdotal I realize. Much to my utter amazement, a good, longtime friend that has been an ardent nevertrumper texted me the other day to say he had changed his mind, and is now behind the “new and improved” Trump.
He and I have had some heated conversations, and had agreed to not talk politics in order not to have a brawl.
Moral of the story is if a Eric Ericson disciple as adamnet as my friend can come around, any nevertrumper can.
Were I advising Trump, I would do more visits to the Wolverine State.
The Poll had 75% democrats, 10% Marxists, 5% Greens, 4.5% Rinos/Never Trumpers, 4% Johnson Nuts, 1% Tea Party members and .5% Tump supporters
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