...it's really not good for you and serves no useful purpose.
Trump and Hillary each have their own internal polls, which are the only reliable ones - and they aren't sharing them with the public (they'd be foolish to do so).
Posted on 08/13/2016 4:29:42 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week.
(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...
I'm not at all concerned at this point. The election is almost three months away. Lots will happen.
“He needs to spend money on ads.”
Trump will spend money on ads when he deems the time is right to do so. Have some confidence in our nominee. Also understand Cankles has burned up multi-millions of dollars in negative ads against Trump and has maybe a 1-3 point lead nationally for it.
Vote Trump 2016
If you look at the places where he's holding rallies, that's what he seems to be doing. He's choosing places where his message has the potential of near-unanimous agreement.
Part of the reason for the incessant pounding of Trump by the media is to keep discouraged those discouraged non-voters. The elites don't want voter participation. Ideally they wouldn't have an election at all, but they'll settle for the pretense of an election where they control the candidates and keep the voting population to the true believers.
Trump should give more speeches like the Miami National Association of Homebuilders event. It keeps him out of the media trap plus bonus points for being informative and holding up a chart.
Totally agree. Plus, if the sample aims to reflect the national popular vote, it misses the point of the electoral college altogether. Other have pointed out that there may be a hidden Trump vote, a large cohort that does not participate in polling. If these various "pockets of support" aren't properly included in the sample, then the sample average will have a baked-in (and consistent, reproducible) error.
FNC had some “polling experts” on this AM and they all agreed Clinton is skyrocketing in the polls and Trump is diving.
Conclusion: Americans are idiots.
It's important to worry. I'd suggest a minimum of at least 42 minutes of focused worry each day, preferably before a meal.
“FNC had some “polling experts” on this AM and they all agreed Clinton is skyrocketing in the polls and Trump is diving.”
Part of the issue is he is not spending money on TV ad buys. She is running unopposed, basically. I cannot see how this is smart on his part — she is framing the debate without response. And big rallies aren’t substitutes. TV ads reach 10-100X more people, especially when run during Olympic prime time broadcasts (which is happening).
Voting will be useless anyway.
I disagree. The takers do not care about corruption.
I have no idea if they are playing with the makeup of this poll to affect the results but I must say that it is getting old to have to wake up every single day to find Trump further ‘behind’. If the polls aren’t really skewed, we are in trouble.
It has been discussed for years what the reduction in response rate has on the reliability of polls. PEW research published an article in 2012 showing that their response rate (actually making an interview) was now down to 9% (nine percent). I have seen another article indicating 8% response rate in 2014.
This is a problem for the pollsters since it makes it more expensive for the pollsters to sample a large enough group. But there is another problem: What if there is a difference between those who reply to the poll and those that don't? That could induce a large, an overwhelming bias in a poll.
Some research has gone in to answer that question, and in data published in WaPo comparing accuracy and response rates in polls between 1999 - 2014 it did not appear that the accuracy had declined, despite the fact that the response rate had gone from just below 35% to below 10%.
However, for the polling companies this is like skating on bad ice. Just because it worked yesterday, and an hour ago, it may not work now!
In some previous threads I noted that if there is such a low response rate then a single percent difference in response rate will cause a large difference in the polling result even though there may be an underlying 50/50 split in the preference for the candidates.
In the old days when the response rates were well above 80% then you needed much larger differences in response rates between candidates to skew your poll. Such large differences may have been picked up elsewhere.
So to this election: It is quite obvious that the media bias has been worse than ever before. One has to go back to the election 1980 to find anything close - and that was not an election which the pollsters remember with fondness.
Now, is it very unlikely that people who are thinking of voting for a candidate that is vilified almost universally are more (and remember we are talking of a difference of a few percent only) reluctant to answer a poll?
I think the answer to that question is pretty obvious, and therefore I am much less interested in polls this election than previous ones.
I agree with Mother Jones for once, although I hope we don’t have to wait until after Labor Day.
Donald Trump Is Doing Pretty Well Considering That He Isn’t Advertising At All
...it's really not good for you and serves no useful purpose.
Trump and Hillary each have their own internal polls, which are the only reliable ones - and they aren't sharing them with the public (they'd be foolish to do so).
Yeah, Trump has been excellent this past week starting with his Detroit economic speech. He’s been focused, detailed in his policy proposals, excellent at eviscerating Hillary, presidential, and (for some speeches) very mellow and measured. I think he final has found a nice balance between being entertaining and substantive. (I like the charts too.) He’s been working hard and making a ton of appearances. I really think over this past week he may have been the best he’s been this whole election cycle since he announced 14 months ago.
Yet, here we see he’s still dropping in the polls. I’d like to think this is just tinkering with the poll methodologies (and I’m sure it is in regard to the NBC/WSJ polls which have always been jokes this whole cycle), but this poll has always leaned toward being overly favorable to Trump like Rasmussen. Other usually fairly reliable polls show him down by large margins.
The only good explanation I think is that the non-stop, pro-Hillary, slanderous attacks on Trump from the “media” are really taking a toll, regardless of anything Trump does or does not do. It is sick to think the propagandists have such control and so few Americans think for themselves, but I already knew that from past elections and personal observation. The attack ads against Trump here in FL are also beyond brutal (yes, they are more effective and harder hitting than the ones during the primaries—and they really need to be answered with ads from Trump highlighting his positive attributes and letting Hillary have it for her criminality). I don’t know what can be done about the media propagandists. Their mendacity has probably cost Trump 10 points alone.
It follows that what Trump and Manafort are doing (I get the feeling that Manafort is really really smart about this stuff....the way he turned around the primaries). Nothing is better than those HUGE, enthusiastic rallies to show that Trump is massively popular! A fringe benefit is that when protestors show up, Trump gets to frame hillary supporters as the pathetic losers they are.
This is all so fascinating. I doubt if there's anyone except Trump with the inner circle he's developing who could figure out a strategy to beat the rigged system.
At least, Trump has a positive facebook post this morning, declaring that WE WILL DEFEAT CROOKED HILLARY AND THE CLINTON NEWS NETWORK!!!
Bill Mitchell also tweeted this past week that an insider source he knew said Trump was ROCKING IT IN OHIO and told him Trump was up perhaps 7 to 9 points there.
Great to see Reince Priebus introduce Trump at both of his PA rallies yesterday. He radiated confidence and dispelled accounts of the RNC pulling support from Trump!
Exactly. Public polling data’s purpose is to do one thing and one thing only: suppress the enthusiasm of Trump supporters and people who may consider voting for Trump.
They’ll read or hear about these polls and think “Oh, well, what’s the point? May as well stay home.”
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