These people accurately forecast the Obama/Romney race. They accounted for bias from either side.
That said, polling firms want to look more accurate the closer to an election that they get UNLESS they are getting big bucks to be manipulative. They sell their polling expertise to most firms that use survey data.
However, many of them will use manipulative polls during a campaign because of their own bias or that of their clients.
THIS is the time when manipulative polls are really significant political tools to shape opinion and energy.
Thanks for the reply. By “these people”, do you mean this poll accurately forecast the last election? How does their methodology differ from “major polls”?
The predicted turnout was D+2. It was D+6. That is where things went wrong. It will be between Even and D+2 this time. Our side will will. Gut feeling: Anti Mormon conservatives stayed home. Presbyterians don’t have that kind of bias against them.
The predicted turnout was D+2. It was D+6. That is where things went wrong. It will be between Even and D+2 this time. Our side will win.. Gut feeling: Anti Mormon conservatives stayed home. Presbyterians don’t have that kind of bias against them.