Did the author factor in all the voters?
Posted on 08/05/2016 3:21:03 PM PDT by JohnKinAK
WASHINGTON – The Politik is predicting that on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, Donald J. Trump will win a landslide election, to become the 45th President of the United States.
2012 and 2016
In 2012, Barack Obama won reelection with 65.9 million votes. Mitt Romney finished 5 million votes behind, at 60.9 million. That earned Obama 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206.
Just four years earlier, Obama had become the first African American ever to be elected president of the United States, winning the highest amount of votes (69.5 million) by any presidential candidate in history. Despite his historic nature and relative popularity, his margin of victory decreased from 2008. Consequently, Obama became the first incumbent in seven decades to get reelected with fewer electoral votes and a lower popular vote percentage.
Obama lost approximately 3.6 million votes from 2008 to 2012. Romney gained slightly on 2008 candidate John McCain’s 59.9 million.
The takeaway from the 2012 election, as it relates to 2016, is that Barack Obama was a once in a lifetime type of candidate. The first African-American candidate. He was young. He was fresh and his candidacy embodied the sort of ‘change’ that so many dissatisfied American’s felt following a long war in Iraq and the financial collapse of the U.S. housing market.
And despite all that popularity, enthusiasm and African-American turnout, he still only attained 51.1% of the popular vote in 2012.
Hillary Clinton stands no chance of besting the numbers of Barack Obama from 2012. She is far less popular. She has far less charisma. She does not inspire enthusiasm, and she comes with a lifetime of corrupt decisions and illegal behavior.
Primary Changes by the Numbers
In 2008, the last time the Democrats did not have an incumbent on the ticket, they had approximately 38 million Primary voters. In 2016, that number slipped to approximately 30 million. A loss of 8 million primary voters.
In 2008, Republicans had 21 million primary voters. In 2012, the number slipped to 19 million. In 2016 however, the GOP had over 30 million primary voters – approximately 9-10 million more than 2008.
That is a change of approximately 17-18 million voters in favor of the GOP.
John McCain lost by 10 million votes.
Mitt Romney lost by 5 million votes.
And since 2008, the Democrats have lost 8 million primary voters while the GOP has gained about 10 million.
Donald Trump the Rock Star
Trump is the most popular and captivating candidate the party has nominated since Ronald Reagan. A successful businessman, Trump has been in the world spotlight for years and became a household name over the past decade with a successful reality TV show on NBC, ‘The Apprentice’ and ‘Celebrity Apprentice’.
His name adorns buildings, casinos and resorts all over the world.
Everywhere he has gone, for over a year now, throngs of fans and voters stand in lines thousands deep and hours long. In early August, in a Daytona Beach arena, Trump drew 8,000 screaming fans, while Hillary could only muster a few hundred the same day at a high school gym in Colorado. Later that night, in Jacksonville, Trump drew 15,000 people. This is a normal occurrence on the campaign trail.
Again, Hillary inspires no confidence in voters. Donald Trump has to turn away far more fans that Clinton can even draw at a campaign event. This is meaningful as it relates to who actually will make an effort to vote.
To prove how far his national appeal is, Trump won big in every region of the map: Northeast, Southeast, South, Midwest, Rust Belt, Northwest, West and Southwest. He won more primary votes than any candidate in the history of the party, and he did so with 17 candidates running.
He won a landslide primary, in a year in which three very popular elected officials from the big states of Texas, Florida and Ohio were running against him. That alone made it impossible for almost any candidate besides Ted Cruz in Texas, Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio in Florida and John Kasich in Ohio, to win. Not only did Trump win, but did so with ease.
The Democrats’ Minority Problem
One myth among the typical media narrative is that Republicans have a minority voter problem. In reality, it’s the Democrats that do. In 2012, when Barack Obama won only 51% of the vote, it took him winning the black vote 93-6, and it also required historically high turnout from that group.
Hillary, at minimum, needs to match Obama’s 93-6 margin with black voters, and needs every single black voter that turned out in 2012. That isn’t going to happen. She may achieve the margin. She won’t come close to getting the same turnout.
The Democrats have an electoral problem, in that they need 95% of the black vote, with large turnout, just to win a general election.
Not only is a problem today, but its a far bigger problem for them in the future. As groups of a demographic grow in size, they also become more diverse. The chances are that Blacks will vote less and less for Democrat in the future, as they grow in size and diversify from evolution.
The GOP has been Destroying Democrats in elections since 2009
When it comes to elections, the GOP has been faring better against Democrats over the last 7 years, than they ever have previously. In 2010, the GOP took back the House of Representatives with a 63-seat pickup, and also grabbed control of 29 of 50 governorships and gained 690 seats in state legislatures.
Then in 2014, The Republicans won 16 seats from Democrats, while only three Republican-held seats turned Democratic. The Republicans achieved their largest majority in the House since 1928. Combined with the Republican gains made in 2010, the total number of Democratic-held House seats lost under Barack Obama’s presidency in midterm elections rose to 77 with the 2014 midterms.
Other than Barack Obama’s unimpressive reelection against Mitt Romney in 2012, the Democrats have been losing every type of election imaginable to Republicans.
The Variable Factors
Hillary Clinton is also on the losing end of almost all variables that play in elections. 1.She is the incumbent party seeking a third consecutive term, which is rarely a good thing 2.The Economy is not producing with 90 million unemployed Americans and only 1.2 % growth. 3.ISIS and Terrorism is striking all over the western world and within the United States borders. The Democrats refuse to even say the phrase “Islamic Terrorism.” 4.Nearly 80% of the country thinks the United States is going in the wrong direction and Hillary Clinton has been directly involved in government for the last 25 years. In these times, experience is not a good thing. 5.Trump is unabashedly pro-American while the Democrats give off a perception that they are embarrassed by being associated as an American. 6.Trump has taken strong positions on two issues that are driving massive new voters to him: Immigration and Free Trade. Both of these issues hit right at the heart of the forgotten middle class, that has seen their jobs traded away oversees by their own elected officials. 7.Over the past 70 or so years, typically the more physically overpowering ticket wins. Trump/Pence or Clinton/Kaine? Who seems tougher to you? 8.Her husband Bill Clinton never received even half of the vote during his two Electoral College victories in 1992 and 1996. The Clintons are not as popular as the media would have you believe. 9.Hillary doesn’t have the heart of her party’s voters. Bernie Sanders did. And unfortunately for the Democrats, the heart of their party’s voters lost. 10.Trump, on the hand, is the heart of the party and beat the powerful interests groups trying to steal it from him and his record setting amount of voters.
The Secret-Trump Vote
Don’t even bother looking at a poll. If they were any accurate or valuable at predicting, then the people who ran them would be billionaires.
As we learned from the DNC-WikiLeaks scandal, the Democratic Party and Mainstream Media manipulate polls for nothing other than headlines and talking points, meant to drive narratives and suppress Republican turnout.
Instead, think of the facts.
In 2012, the voting age population was 235 million, but only 129 million voted.
Both parties left a possible 106 million votes on the table.
Because of Donald Trump’s candidacy, all the rules have been thrown out. We’ve seen that few of the old political playbook tricks work against him. Money being spent by his opponents have all gone to waste.
We saw every single professional political pundit in the country get the entire primary season wrong – on both sides.
The media and their phony polling consultants don’t have any clue what turnout will look like. If they did, they wouldn’t have bungled their Trump and Clinton predictions so badly in the primaries.
What we do know is that Trump is attracting voters from all over the map and into the Republican fold, just to vote for him. It’s how he unexpectedly massacred 16 opponents in the primary.
It’s how he will massacre Hillary Clinton in the general election.
When the media tells you that this race is close or that Hillary is leading, just simply laugh it all off.
This election is already over and Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States.
And yet he won the primary against 16 other challengers against all odds doing exactly what he's been doing all along.
Mom and Dad are stumping for her, also..
“The Republicans achieved their largest majority in the House since 1928”
And yet, Obama has gotten everything he wanted.
Bttt.
5.56mm
Did the author factor in all the voters?
Trump will defeat Hillary in a landslide, Obama will declare that the election was rigged and he’ll demand a do-over until the results say Hillary won.
Trump Will Defeat Clinton in Landslide
I agree.
Trump to the top
They sure do throw the “Landslide” word around a lot these days, don’t they. In all fairness, I don’t see anyone winning in a landslide the way this country has been polarized. That term just sound disingenuous to say the least.
We desperately need a Pinochet here.
Since Obama is not allowed to run for a 3rd term; just how do you propose Obama accomplish staying in office ..??
That could all change if there is any funny in regards to Mr. Obama. We could very well see an American autumn, massive peaceful protests because of the HUGH support for Mr. Trump/Gov. Pence.
Some emergency.
That, coupled with the fact that black turn out will be a fraction of what it was in 2008 & 2012. The analysis in this article is why the media is so desperately attacking Trump.
Such as ..??
All currently elected officials will be attacked by zombies ..????
WOW! Ryan will be disappointed he didn’t get to ascend to the throne from this 3rd place spot.
WW3 or a global economic collapse or both!
The author also forgets that there are voter fraud fighting and prevention organizations such as “True The Vote”.
Nonsense. The whole Khan muslim flap will actually help Trump. You've been fooled by the media and pundit class narrative.
Right now, the USA has been polarized thanks to Mr. Obama and Ms. Hillary. She is not as liked as Mr. Obama is. Plus there are two 3rd parties now in this fight.
Correction: “funny business”.
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