EXCLUSIVE: @realDonaldTrump arrives at Indiana Governor's residence.
9:15 AM - 13 Jul 2016
Posted on 07/13/2016 5:02:21 AM PDT by SJackson
Did Donald Trump really just surge past Hillary Clinton in two of the election's most important battlegrounds?
New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.
The race is so close that it's within the margin of error in each of the three states. Trump leads by three points in Florida — the closest state in the 2012 election — 42 percent to 39 percent. In Ohio, the race is tied, 41 percent to 41 percent. And in Pennsylvania — which hasn't voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988 — Trump leads, 43 percent to 41 percent. Other polls give Clinton an advantage in all three states. Including the new Quinnipiac surveys, POLITICO’s Battleground State polling average — which include the five most-recent polls in each state — give Clinton a 3.2-point lead in Florida, a 2.8-point edge in Ohio and a larger, 4.6-point advantage in Pennsylvania.
While the Quinnipiac results are eye-popping, they don’t represent any significant movement — except in Florida. In three rounds of polling over the past two months, the race has moved from a four-point Trump lead in Ohio in the first survey, then tied in the next two polls. In Pennsylvania, Clinton led by one point in the first two polls and now trails by two.
But in Florida, the race has bounced around. Clinton led by one point in the first poll two months ago, but she opened up an eight-point lead in June — a lead that has been erased and more in the new Quinnipiac survey.
The polls from the Connecticut-based school are likely to be met with some skepticism. When Quinnipiac released their first round of polls in the same three states two months ago, they prompted a round of sniping from Democrats and an F-bomb on Twitter from Nate Silver, the FiveThirtyEight founder who has built a career using poll results to make political predictions.
But subsequent polls later confirmed the May Quinnipiac surveys: Trump pulled virtually even with Clinton nationally after knocking out his rivals for the GOP nomination.
It’s possible the results of the FBI investigation into Clinton’s private email server dating back to her service as secretary of state — FBI Director James Comey called Clinton and her staff “extremely careless,” even as he said the government shouldn’t press charges because there wasn’t evidence of criminal intent — are driving Clinton’s poll numbers down leading into the conventions, typically a critical time for campaigns. In the poll release, the school suggested the investigation could have played a role, pointing to other lingering questions about Clinton’s honesty and trustworthiness. “While there is no definite link between Clinton’s drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of emails,” Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown said, “she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty.”
But the Quinnipiac polls are imperfect measures of a post-email investigation race. That’s because, like many of the school’s other polls, they were conducted over an unusually lengthy, 12-day time period: June 30 through July 11. The national polls conducted since Comey’s statement are mixed: Clinton posted a 3-point lead in this week’s NBC News/SurveyMonkey online tracking poll, down from a 5-point lead the week prior. Morning Consult, another online tracking poll, gave Clinton identical 1-point leads in the days before and after Comey’s statement. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, left, reacts as she takes the stage at a rally, Monday, June 6, in Long Beach, Calif.
Overall, Clinton leads by 4.3 points in the latest national HuffPost Pollster average, and she has a 3.7-point advantage in the RealClearPolitics average. The polling in other battleground states since the announcement are also cloudy. Monmouth University surveys conducted after the Comey statement gave Clinton a 4-point lead in Nevada — but showed Trump ahead by two points in Iowa.
In the Quinnipiac polls, there are warning signs for both candidates in all three states. First, despite near-universal name-ID, neither candidate can break out of the low 40s on the ballot test. That points to two very unpopular candidates.
But, in a reversal from earlier surveys, it’s a more acute problem for Clinton. Clinton’s unfavorable ratings (59 percent in Florida, 60 percent in Ohio, 65 percent in Pennsylvania) are higher than Trump’s (54 percent in Florida, 59 percent in Ohio, 57 percent in Pennsylvania) in all three battleground states. And majorities in all three states — which together account for 67 electoral votes, or nearly a quarter of the 270 necessary to win the presidency — have a “very unfavorable” view of Clinton.
Another measure of voters’ ambivalence about Clinton in the Quinnipiac poll: a second ballot-test question, this time adding two third-party candidates to the mix. When voters are asked to consider the general election again, this time given the option of choosing Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump’s advantage over Clinton grows in each state. Trump leads on the four-way ballot by five points in Florida, one point in Ohio and six points in Pennsylvania.
There are some eyebrow-raising results from the polls, however. On the two-way ballot test in Florida, Clinton trails Trump despite the Republican winning just 21 percent of non-white voters in the increasingly diverse state.
In Ohio, Clinton wins 90 percent of Democrats, but Trump only captures 77 percent of Republicans, putting him at a significant disadvantage. In Pennsylvania, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by close to 10 percentage points, both candidates are at 82 percent among their own partisans, with Trump only three points ahead among self-identified independents.
I hope you're right, but we can't take anything for granted. We have to fight for every vote right up until the polls close on election day. If Trump just squeaks out a victory, it will be the year 2000 all over again, with the Clinton campaign demanding recounts in key battleground states that they think they can steal. We must do everything we can to completely crush Hillary in November so there's no doubt that Trump is victorious.
They don’t have to come out. When you can get 120% of eligible, not registered, voters, things tend to go your way.
There is the school of thought that some women don’t like powerful women in comparison to men. It was a comment that was often made when Sarah Palin was running. Thus it is an obstacle for female politicians to overcome. Obviously some do but that may be what is in play with your female federal employees.
This will come down to a handful of counties. Just like 2008 and 2012. They will be bussing in illegals who will vote in every district. No voter ID. All they have to do is win a State by 1 vote and the Electorial votes go to the winner.
I am close to Pa. and know it is a Dem stronghold. Nevertheless, people are pissed. The situation of Clinton/Obama bashing Law Enforcment is swinging many Dems and lots of Indies. Pa. is a big LE state and military background state. Florida will go to Trump unless 120% of registered voters show up. Just like 2012 and no one fixed the issue. Ohio is one of the places where they will be bussing in huge amounts of illegals to vote.
EXCLUSIVE: @realDonaldTrump arrives at Indiana Governor's residence.
9:15 AM - 13 Jul 2016
Philly politics is some of the most corrupt in the nation.
So that other Florida poll was not BS, backed up by Quinipiac.
Correct. If she is not winning PA and FL (and to a lesser extent IA), then she is in trouble.
Any poll news on WI, MI, and MN?
Amazing how the “journalist” scribbling for Pollutico took good news for Trump and tried to mitigate it in the body of the story.
Almost like Pollutico is reluctant to say the truth that Hitlery is a disaster, just like her boss Barry.
You make the allegations, it is up to you to substantiate them it is not incumbent on me to deny or explain that with which I am not confronted.
You make the allegations, it is up to you to substantiate them not Incumbent upon me to deny or explain that with which I am not confronted.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, Clinton can win the other swing states (Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin, Maine) and Trump will still win.
Pennsylvania is NOT a swing state. It is a Democrat state.
If Trump is winning there he might actually win the election.
I got an automated polling call last week.
I indicated that I was a young black female for Trump.
I worry about such things as well. With the 120% turnout and all.
However, unlike Romney, the monstrous traitorous pussy, I think Trump will say something about such things and demand action.
Excellent point; Pennsylvania was not a swing state and Virginia used to be a Republican state. I find it difficult to imagine Clinton losing Pennsylvania and winning Virginia. The key going forward is Republican unity for Trump and a near record turnout.
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