Posted on 07/13/2016 5:02:21 AM PDT by SJackson
Did Donald Trump really just surge past Hillary Clinton in two of the election's most important battlegrounds?
New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.
The race is so close that it's within the margin of error in each of the three states. Trump leads by three points in Florida — the closest state in the 2012 election — 42 percent to 39 percent. In Ohio, the race is tied, 41 percent to 41 percent. And in Pennsylvania — which hasn't voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988 — Trump leads, 43 percent to 41 percent. Other polls give Clinton an advantage in all three states. Including the new Quinnipiac surveys, POLITICO’s Battleground State polling average — which include the five most-recent polls in each state — give Clinton a 3.2-point lead in Florida, a 2.8-point edge in Ohio and a larger, 4.6-point advantage in Pennsylvania.
While the Quinnipiac results are eye-popping, they don’t represent any significant movement — except in Florida. In three rounds of polling over the past two months, the race has moved from a four-point Trump lead in Ohio in the first survey, then tied in the next two polls. In Pennsylvania, Clinton led by one point in the first two polls and now trails by two.
But in Florida, the race has bounced around. Clinton led by one point in the first poll two months ago, but she opened up an eight-point lead in June — a lead that has been erased and more in the new Quinnipiac survey.
The polls from the Connecticut-based school are likely to be met with some skepticism. When Quinnipiac released their first round of polls in the same three states two months ago, they prompted a round of sniping from Democrats and an F-bomb on Twitter from Nate Silver, the FiveThirtyEight founder who has built a career using poll results to make political predictions.
But subsequent polls later confirmed the May Quinnipiac surveys: Trump pulled virtually even with Clinton nationally after knocking out his rivals for the GOP nomination.
It’s possible the results of the FBI investigation into Clinton’s private email server dating back to her service as secretary of state — FBI Director James Comey called Clinton and her staff “extremely careless,” even as he said the government shouldn’t press charges because there wasn’t evidence of criminal intent — are driving Clinton’s poll numbers down leading into the conventions, typically a critical time for campaigns. In the poll release, the school suggested the investigation could have played a role, pointing to other lingering questions about Clinton’s honesty and trustworthiness. “While there is no definite link between Clinton’s drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of emails,” Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown said, “she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty.”
But the Quinnipiac polls are imperfect measures of a post-email investigation race. That’s because, like many of the school’s other polls, they were conducted over an unusually lengthy, 12-day time period: June 30 through July 11. The national polls conducted since Comey’s statement are mixed: Clinton posted a 3-point lead in this week’s NBC News/SurveyMonkey online tracking poll, down from a 5-point lead the week prior. Morning Consult, another online tracking poll, gave Clinton identical 1-point leads in the days before and after Comey’s statement. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, left, reacts as she takes the stage at a rally, Monday, June 6, in Long Beach, Calif.
Overall, Clinton leads by 4.3 points in the latest national HuffPost Pollster average, and she has a 3.7-point advantage in the RealClearPolitics average. The polling in other battleground states since the announcement are also cloudy. Monmouth University surveys conducted after the Comey statement gave Clinton a 4-point lead in Nevada — but showed Trump ahead by two points in Iowa.
In the Quinnipiac polls, there are warning signs for both candidates in all three states. First, despite near-universal name-ID, neither candidate can break out of the low 40s on the ballot test. That points to two very unpopular candidates.
But, in a reversal from earlier surveys, it’s a more acute problem for Clinton. Clinton’s unfavorable ratings (59 percent in Florida, 60 percent in Ohio, 65 percent in Pennsylvania) are higher than Trump’s (54 percent in Florida, 59 percent in Ohio, 57 percent in Pennsylvania) in all three battleground states. And majorities in all three states — which together account for 67 electoral votes, or nearly a quarter of the 270 necessary to win the presidency — have a “very unfavorable” view of Clinton.
Another measure of voters’ ambivalence about Clinton in the Quinnipiac poll: a second ballot-test question, this time adding two third-party candidates to the mix. When voters are asked to consider the general election again, this time given the option of choosing Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump’s advantage over Clinton grows in each state. Trump leads on the four-way ballot by five points in Florida, one point in Ohio and six points in Pennsylvania.
There are some eyebrow-raising results from the polls, however. On the two-way ballot test in Florida, Clinton trails Trump despite the Republican winning just 21 percent of non-white voters in the increasingly diverse state.
In Ohio, Clinton wins 90 percent of Democrats, but Trump only captures 77 percent of Republicans, putting him at a significant disadvantage. In Pennsylvania, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by close to 10 percentage points, both candidates are at 82 percent among their own partisans, with Trump only three points ahead among self-identified independents.
The Clintonista’s on MSNBC are beginning to panic on Morning Joe. I think Trump will win by a large margin.
If Trump doesn’t win PA it’s over
It’s the head to head comparison that matters. Lots of people find Trump objectionable. But that doesn’t mean they won’t vote for him. They might if Hillary looks like a worse choice. The head to head race begins after Labor Day.
does this mean that Hillary will have to start campaigning in front huge white crowds? that should be interesting to watch. Maybe for the first time we will see tomatoes thrown at Hillary, especially in Ohio/Penn.
Que democRATic lawyers 5,4,3....
She belongs in the Ohio Penn.!
Republicans should come around after next week’s convention.
Trump is going to put the issue to them: “I understand you have your reservations about me but picture America under St. Hillary for the next eight years.”
Elections have consequences. We have seen them with Obama. The stakes literally are high with this election.
Hillary is slipping back down into the toilet again.
I dont think Q polls are that accurate... If I remember correctly they had Rombot winning a week before!
Pretty much Trump’s number will take off because after what has been happening this summer Americans have no choice.
What stunner......anyone with half a brain could have predicted this oncoming outcome. The only TV station that has the grasp of truth & reality is Fox News Channel (Murdoch & Ailes smelled out the winner quickly, and put their chips on him) and more importantly, Fox Business Channel. CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, etc. are lost at sea playing footsie with the losing Clinton and the Democrat Party!!!
I would suggest that these TV/Media” Clinton adorees tune in to both the GOP & Democrat Conventions for just one thing....the viewership. The viewership, IMHO, will tell the true tale of this election!!! Let us all witness as to who wins the TV viewer race at these convention!!! Second....the POTUS Debates...if ya can’t figure that one out....you do not belong in the media!!!
There are a number of states about which the same can be said about Clinton if she doesn't win them. These polls and this article are good news, not bad.
At this point in the game, none of the polls are that accurate.
Mitt never led.
And he phoned it in after his last debate with Obama.
Hillary is beatable. The only question left to be answered is how much Trump wants the job.
We’ll see in five months.
This election will have their heads spinning. Trump might not win all 57 states, but he could pull 45 or so.
Confirming what I’ve been saying for quite a while- “It’s going to be a Trump landslide.”
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