Dear Nate person,
a genuine question....
can a candidate serve as President from her prison cell?
just wondering...
“Her loud-mouthed Republican rival” Well at least they don’t show any bias in their article.
I want to place a bet. Where can I do that?
The Cleveland Cavaliers were given a ZERO percent chance from coming back in the NBA Finals after being down 3-1..only 4 teams in NBA History have EVER come back from being down 3-1..the Cavs came back and won 3 straight and won the title. ANYTHING can happen between now and election day. No one gave Trump ANY chance of being the GOP nominee and he beat 17 guys..not saying that Clinton isnt up right now I think she is but I remember McCain being up by 8 points after the Convention, but after the stock market tanked everything changed
Silver made his reputation by predicting the correct general election results of 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and he was correct in 50 out of 50 plus D.C. in 2012.
That does not mean he will be correct in 2016.
“He said Trump was unpopular and would never win the nomination.”
Trump’s unfavorability ratings *are* very high. That, sadly, is just fact. His supporters are fervent, but more people don’t like him than like him. If we want a Republican in the White House, in order to get the votes those favorability ratings need to go up.
You are really misjudging Nate Silver. He has the best methodology of any of the pollsters. He will be dead right come election day - you can count on that.
But I expect Trump to win and I expect Silver to predict that victory - as we approach election day.
Two reasons why:
1. Right now we (and Nate Silver) are dealing mostly with "Elect Hillary Push Polls". That will change but not for awhile.
2. I expect the Trump campaign to do to Hillary the same thing he did to 16 (some great, some not) candidates for the job he is about to win.
Stay loose, critique the crappy polls that have to improve as we move toward election day (in order for them to maintain some level of credibility.) And, most importantly, watch Nate silver slide his projections for a Hillary win down, down, down. Hopefully down to least the low 40's.
You read it here first.
“One problem with this is that it’s not enough for Trump to merely avoid fading. Right now, he has 25 to 30 percent of the vote in polls among the roughly 25 percent of Americans who identify as Republican. (That’s something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.) As the rest of the field consolidates around him, Trump will need to gain additional support to win the nomination. That might not be easy, since some Trump actions that appeal to a faction of the Republican electorate may alienate the rest of it. Trump’s favorability ratings are middling among Republicans (and awful among the broader electorate).”
“So, could Trump win? We confront two stubborn facts: first, that nobody remotely like Trump has won a major-party nomination in the modern era.4 And second, as is always a problem in analysis of presidential campaigns, we don’t have all that many data points, so unprecedented events can occur with some regularity. For my money, that adds up to Trump’s chances being higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent. Your mileage may vary. But you probably shouldn’t rely solely on the polls to make your case; it’s still too soon for that.”
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/
Trump will win in a landslide that will eclipse Reagan’s route of Mondale in 1984.
Trump has no more chance of winning than Brexit did. Nate Silver has spoken. It’s time to give up.
Silver: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now
We haven’t even had the conventions yet. At least 70% of the population is still asleep. Methinks Mr. Sliver has jumped the shark.
I would be interested to see Silver’s predictions on Brexit.
When the entire society is telling people that the they are stupid if they vote for Trump, and that the right thing is to vote for Clinton, they do not change who people will vote for. If they push hard enough, however, they can get people to lie about who they are going to vote for.
People will deny all day long and twice on Sundays that they are going to vote for Trump, because they do not want to appear to be mouth-breathing morons. But in the privacy of the voting booth, they are going to throw the lever for Trump, because they know it is the right thing to do.
Another endorsement for Trump! The guy just keeps racking them up.
Oh sure, we all want to continue down the road to ruin. Has there ever been more of an establishment candidate than Hillary?
Last I checked the whole world is rejecting the current establishments in power. Just look at BREXIT and the other EU nations that want out.
Our primaries went to non-establishment candidates and Hillary would have been out on her ass if the dems didn’t already have it rigged for her.
She’s not going to win this election without massive voter fraud and ballot stuffing.
All we have to do is look at historical voting levels to realize these are very fringe numbers.
They can say what they want about Trump, but the idea that he will get only 20 or simply less than 25% of the presidential vote is absurd. And when something is totally absurd, it isn't worth the trouble to post or read about.
This is pure fantasy.
Donald Trump is going to do just fine against Hillary, and the polls are revealing that.
He's going to mop the floor with her.
Nate’s a guy who’s made himself a fortune convincing people his math is godlike...
He didn’t call Trump for the primary, not even close... he’s off just as badly on this one.
Hopefully this election cycle will be the end of this guys schtick.
Hillary is probably going to win by about 5% of the votes as things stand.
Trump needs to apologize to Mexicans and Muslims repeatedly.
Alternately, the Republican Party needs to switch to Rubio for President and either Kasich or Cruz for Vice President.
A US Constitutional tax cap/immigration deal needs to be put on the table.
Congress, not the President, controls immigration.
Hilary can promise the moon (and would if it would help her politically), but Hispanics should clearly know only a Republican President will get an Republican Congress to make an immigration deal after this election.
The basic problem is not with the immigrants, but with American leftist politicians.
We need to ensure by a Constitutional amendment capping taxation and other government money grabs that leftist politicians can not through excessive taxation turn our country into a leftist hellhole like Venezuela.
I’ve never head of Nate Silverheels.
This is absolutely ridiculous.
Well, I give Queen Silver a 0% chance of being right about the 2016 GOP nominee.