You are really misjudging Nate Silver. He has the best methodology of any of the pollsters. He will be dead right come election day - you can count on that.
But I expect Trump to win and I expect Silver to predict that victory - as we approach election day.
Two reasons why:
1. Right now we (and Nate Silver) are dealing mostly with "Elect Hillary Push Polls". That will change but not for awhile.
2. I expect the Trump campaign to do to Hillary the same thing he did to 16 (some great, some not) candidates for the job he is about to win.
Stay loose, critique the crappy polls that have to improve as we move toward election day (in order for them to maintain some level of credibility.) And, most importantly, watch Nate silver slide his projections for a Hillary win down, down, down. Hopefully down to least the low 40's.
You read it here first.
Why does he have “the best methodology”?
His “methodology” has been consistently wrong about Trump. He said that Trump was unpopular and would not be taken seriously. He said that Trump would not get the Republican nomination.
The MSM calls Silver “freakishly accurate”. That is because he is one of their favorites.
Other posters have noted that his reputation is based on having inside information from Obama in the 2008 and 2012 elections. Probably information on voter fraud.