Hillary better be getting that pardon lined up.
The polls can’t be wrong!
Yup. Even Nigel Farage said it would be “Remain” by a narrow margin yesterday afternoon (our time).
Trump will have the same effect. Under poll.
People lie to pollsters. Get in the booth, they vote their gut.
Trump is a ‘go with your gut’ vote for sure.
Poll numbers can be rigged and clearly the MSM has an agenda to depress anti-Hillary voter turnout.
They’re called “push polls” for a reason.
Imagine that... the polls are good for $h!t....
Someone send this to the GOP.
Pray America wakes
Nice.
Lie to a pollster.
It’s the most fun you’re ever liable to have with your pants on.
I think the BRexit vote parallels a Trump phenomenon as well. HuffPost averages showed an essential tie the day of and an ultimate 4 point BRexit win. I am sure many UK voters felt “ashamed” to say to pollsters that they were for BRexit. I believe that Trump’s support is similarly understated here. I’m not an unskewed polls guy, but reasonable analysis would dictate that Trump is not at 40% either. More likely Trump support is currently understated 3-5% in polling. Similar to his underpolling in the primaries.
They weere wrong starting with the Israeli election and have continued from there!
TRUMP LANDSLIDE!!!
That’s the problem right there - they were asking Poles, not Britains. ;-)
538 has an article in the NYTimes today defending polling...
People are more rational than ‘identity’ polling assumes. The racist support for Obama being an aberration. It’s an easy metric to use, so pollsters concentrate on it and blow it out of proportion.
It’s also a ‘politically correct’ bias to concentrate on ‘identity’.
Early polls have never been of much use. They represent the media’s framing of the issues and candidates before the candidates and voters have opportunity to do their own framing.
12-point error? Nope.
12-point, “Scare-err”...there, fixed.
Yeah, the push pollers tried to scare them.
They will do it here, too. Get ready.
I lie to pollsters. I believe many do, even overseas.
Fear of being harassed by people on the other side, most likely causes this.
But once inside the voting booth, nobody but you and God know how you voted............................
Just another example of how the polls are utter lies these days, and always skew in the liberal direction.
My rule of thumb is that you can subtract 5 to 10 percent from the liberal side of any poll’s figures. I call it the “Nudge Factor.”
UK polling has had a very bad run of late, they got the Scottish referendum, the last General Election, and now the Brexit votes very wrong.
As for the US, IIRC the polls have been closer, and final polls a day or so before and election have generally close to the mark, but with some significant failures as well.
Polling in June is only useful in identifying and tracking trends as the campaign heats up. It is less than useful for projecting winners and losers in a close election.
I so remember the night of the 1980 election - RAther and the rest all claiming the polls showing that Reagan would lose 2 to 1. It’s a strategy they use - knowing people like to vote for a winner - AND that a lot, hearing their side is loosing - won’t bother to go vote. This has worked more than once...
The vote did go 2 to 1 - for FOR Reagan.
I remember, with glee - the look on all those faces on election day.