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Pelham: "The rump Confederacy was essentially a free trade zone with dramatically lower tariffs and it was right on his doorstep.
Trade that could divert would skip US ports..."

Yes, yes, I know, it's the argument DiogenesLamp has been making for ages.
And it's never been true when DL says it, so it's still not true when you make the same argument.

First of all, the fact is that Confederate tariff rates were not "dramatically lower" than Morrill Tariffs, but yes, they were lower -- they were the same as US pre-Morrill rates, approx. 15%.
If Congress seriously believed those were a major threat to US trade, they need simply reduce Morrill back to pre-Morrill levels.

But there's no actual data suggesting this potential problem ever materialized.
Indeed, during the Civil War, when all exports from Confederate states were blockaded, and so supposedly the Union would lose 70% (!) of the income needed to pay for imports providing Federal revenues... well, nothing of the sort happened.

Indeed, when push came to shove, Congress quickly found new sources of revenue, more than enough to pay for the 15 times increase in war-time spending versus that of 1860.

Of course, once the Confederacy started and declared war, then General Scott's long pre-existing "Anaconda Plan" went into effect, the purpose of which, as its name implies, was to strangle the Confederacy economically.
To that degree, Lincoln certainly did believe that economic factors would play a critical role in defeating the Confederate military.

And, of course, Lincoln was right about that.

Perhaps DL believes that because President Lincoln himself states the inability to collect revenue as his reason for ordering the naval blockade in his proclamation of April 19, 1861. It’s in the first paragraph:

“Whereas an insurrection against the Government of the United States has broken out in the States of South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas, and the laws of the United States for the collection of the revenue can not be effectually executed therein conformably to that provision of the Constitution which requires duties to be uniform throughout the United States; and

Whereas a combination of persons engaged in such insurrection have threatened to grant pretended letters of marque to authorize the bearers thereof to commit assaults on the lives, vessels, and property of good citizens of the country lawfully engaged in commerce on the high seas and in waters of the United States; and

Whereas an Executive proclamation has been already issued requiring the persons engaged in these disorderly proceedings to desist therefrom, calling out a militia force for the purpose of repressing the same, and convening Congress in extraordinary session to deliberate and determine thereon:

Now, therefore, I, Abraham Lincoln, President of the United States, with a view to the same purposes before mentioned and to the protection of the public peace and the lives and property of quiet and orderly citizens pursuing their lawful occupations until Congress shall have assembled and deliberated on the said unlawful proceedings or until the same shall have ceased, have further deemed it advisable to set on foot a blockade of the ports within the States aforesaid, in pursuance of the laws of the United States and of the law of nations in such case provided. For this purpose a competent force will be posted so as to prevent entrance and exit of vessels from the ports aforesaid. If, therefore, with a view to violate such blockade, a vessel shall approach or shall attempt to leave either of the said ports, she will be duly warned by the commander of one of the blockading vessels, who will indorse on her register the fact and date of such warning, and if the same vessel shall again attempt to enter or leave the blockaded port she will be captured and sent to the nearest convenient port for such proceedings against her and her cargo as prize as may be deemed advisable.

And I hereby proclaim and declare that if any person, under the pretended authority of the said States or under any other pretense, shall molest a vessel of the United States or the persons or cargo on board of her, such person will be held amenable to the laws of the United States for the prevention and punishment of piracy.

In witness whereof I have hereunto set my hand and caused the seal of the United States to be affixed.

Done at the city of Washington, this 19th day of April, A.D. 1861, and of the Independence of the United States the eighty-fifth.

ABRAHAM LINCOLN.

By the President:

WILLIAM H. SEWARD, Secretary of State .

You said: “If Congress seriously believed those (Morrill Tariff rates vs. Confederate rates) were a major threat to US trade.....

If they did not, they were already learning.

From the New York Herald of March 2, 1861:

“The effect of these two tariffs [Morrill Tariff and the Confederate Tariff], then, upon our trade with the best, and most reliable part of the country will most disastrously be felt in all the Northern cities. We learn that even now some of the largest houses in the Southern trade in this city, who have not already failed, are preparing to wind up their affairs and abandon business entirely. The result of this as regards the value of property, rents, and real estate, can be readily seen. Within two months from this time it will probably be depreciated from twenty to forty percent."

Southern exports had vanished just two months before.

You may ignore DiogenesLamp or others on this, but you are wrong, and unwilling to think. Add ignorance to your list of logical fallacies.

You said: "But there's no actual data suggesting this potential problem ever materialized."

Wrong again BroJoker:

Value of imports into the city of New York for 1861 showing percent losses compared to the previous (pre-secession) year.

.....Month ... % change from 1860 to 1861

.....Jan ........ 23.5

.....Feb ...... -15.6

,,,,, Mar ...... -22.8

..... Apr ...... -12.3

..... May ..... -11.5

..... Jun ....... -34.0

..... Jul ........ -40.0

..... Aug ..... -65.7

.....Sep ...... -55.1

..... Oct ...... -49.2

..... Nov ..... -37.5

..... Dec ..... -54.8

The next year showed a drop of more than 55% over 1860.

To say that there is no actual data means that you do not have the data to support your contentions.

"What will become of my tariffs?" Abraham Lincoln.

There is the data. Two days later Lincoln ordered the warships to Charleston.