[PeaRidge]

You said: “If Congress seriously believed those (Morrill Tariff rates vs. Confederate rates) were a major threat to US trade.....

If they did not, they were already learning.

From the New York Herald of March 2, 1861:

“The effect of these two tariffs [Morrill Tariff and the Confederate Tariff], then, upon our trade with the best, and most reliable part of the country will most disastrously be felt in all the Northern cities. We learn that even now some of the largest houses in the Southern trade in this city, who have not already failed, are preparing to wind up their affairs and abandon business entirely. The result of this as regards the value of property, rents, and real estate, can be readily seen. Within two months from this time it will probably be depreciated from twenty to forty percent."

Southern exports had vanished just two months before.

You may ignore DiogenesLamp or others on this, but you are wrong, and unwilling to think. Add ignorance to your list of logical fallacies.

You said: "But there's no actual data suggesting this potential problem ever materialized."

Wrong again BroJoker:

Value of imports into the city of New York for 1861 showing percent losses compared to the previous (pre-secession) year.

.....Month ... % change from 1860 to 1861

.....Jan ........ 23.5

.....Feb ...... -15.6

,,,,, Mar ...... -22.8

..... Apr ...... -12.3

..... May ..... -11.5

..... Jun ....... -34.0

..... Jul ........ -40.0

..... Aug ..... -65.7

.....Sep ...... -55.1

..... Oct ...... -49.2

..... Nov ..... -37.5

..... Dec ..... -54.8

The next year showed a drop of more than 55% over 1860.

To say that there is no actual data means that you do not have the data to support your contentions.

"What will become of my tariffs?" Abraham Lincoln.

There is the data. Two days later Lincoln ordered the warships to Charleston.

[BroJoeK]

PeaRidge: “The next year showed a drop of more than 55% over 1860.”

---

Meaning 1862, right?
So it **proves** my point that Deep South cotton, at least in New York, accounted for roughly half of US exports, not 70% or more.

Plus, at the same time that these imports were falling, Federal revenues were dramatically increasing, enough to pay for the huge expense of Civil War.

Bottom line: facts are not so much in dispute here as interpretations of those facts.
I’m merely saying that, considering everything, this early 1861 treasury problem was not as all-important as you wish us to believe.