Not in the least.
Indisputably Deep South exports were $192 million worth of cotton.
That is roughly 50% of $400 million total exports, including specie.
These exports paid for $376 million in imports on which the Federal Government collected $53 million in tariffs.
So it can well be said that cotton exports paid for half of 1860's $53 million in Federal tariff revenues.
But the remaining $46 million of alleged "Southern exports" cannot be verified as even "Southern" produced, much less products of the Deep Confederate South.
Now, just so we don't lose sight of what the point of discussion is: nobody would care in the least if "Southern exports" were 1/3 or 1/2 or 3/4 of total US exports except that it matters to how much the Union needed the South economically and so how sanguine Northerners were (or were not) about secession.
In other words, if Southern exports were relatively small percentages of total US exports, then Northerners might care less economically about secession.
But if Southern exports were, say, 75% or 87% of total US exports then, naturally, you'd expect more of a response from Northerners.
So, here's what I'm saying: only cotton could not be replaced by products of the Union.
Everything else of so-called "Products of the South" could and was produced in the North or Midwest, and so in 1861 when Confederate exports ended, Northerners simply increased production of everything except cotton -- they made economic adjustments -- and so continued to prosper.
That's why I continue to argue that Deep South exports were certainly important, but not as important as many people then and some now supposed.
DiogenesLamp: "They way I calculate it, the Southern (5 million people) portion works out to 71% of the total.
The North (22 million people) were only producing 29% of the total trade revenue."
Well, first of all, you're giving credit to 5 million Southern whites for work that was actually done by about 3 million slaves.
But we'll set that aside...
Second, your 71% is in dispute because I've seen no data demonstrating where, exactly, such products were produced.
50% for cotton is reasonable and acknowledged.
Third and most important, Northern industry produced at least 90% of manufactured products for the nation -- everything from railroad engines to telegraph wire, ships, clothing & wagons to pots & pans.
That more of these products were consumed domestically rather than exported is a function of price & demand.
Finally, we should note that Federal tariffs of the time were generally highest on imported luxury goods intended for wealthy Southern planters, lowest on bulk materials consumed by farmers & workers.
So the total number of slave holders was about 400,000 of whom no more than 100,000 could be called truly wealthy and able to afford imported luxury goods.
So the bottom line is: those 100,000 wealthiest slave-holders who controlled millions of slaves paid the vast majority of the import tariffs which funded Federal government.
It was not then a matter of "5 million Southerners" out-producing "22 million Northerners".
Rather, it was luxury imports for 100,000 wealthiest slaveholders which provided most of the Federal government's tariff revenues.
Think about that...
The per Capita value from European Trade for the Southern part of the Union in 1860 (using *YOUR* numbers) was 40, while the Per Capita value from European Trade for the Northern part of the Union was 10.
Even with your numbers, the Southerners were creating 4 times the value in European trade per capita than was the North, which means they were paying effectively four times the costs of the Federal government.
In reality, due to the Northern favored tariff rules, they were paying much more, and even then, much of the money was being used to subsidize Northern ran businesses.
But even with your numbers, the Southerners were producing 4 to 1 more value per capita than the North.
The Union went to war to get back that money they lost when the South declared Independence. The numbers tell the true story of what happened.
All the rest is contrived kabuki dance on the part of Lincoln and the Northern power barons who influenced him to do what the numbers said he must do.
Wrong and yes it can.
In the Historical Statistics of the United States, section Department of Commerce, there are records of shipment of goods
by port. Each port lists shipments out by type.
From that data, and the US Census, both DeBow and D. Green produced the following data on export product source:
NORTHERN ORIGIN.
Products of the sea . . . . . $ 4,156,180
Forest . . . . . 9,368,917
Provisions . . . . . 20,215,226
Breadstuffs . . . . . 19,022,901
Manufactures . . . . . 25,599,547
Total Northern Origin . . . . . $77,363,070
SOUTHERN ORIGIN.
Forest . . . . . $ 6,085,931
Breadstuffs . . . . . 9,567,397
Cotton . . . . . 191,806,555
Tobacco . . . . . 19,278,621
Hemp, &c. . . . . . 746,370
Manufactures . . . . . 10,934,795
Total Southern Origin . . . . . $238,419,680
Total exports . . . . . $335,782,740
Imports consumed . . . . . 336,380,172