Posted on 05/13/2016 6:14:54 AM PDT by GilGil
Last summer, the great mass of the American political punditocracy scoffed at the possibility that Donald Trump would win a single state in the Republican race. Now he’s all but certain to win the party’s presidential nomination.
Also last summer, British bookmakers took bets at 5,000-to-1 odds that Leicester City, a historically weak English soccer team, would win the Premier League. The team has won, and it has reportedly cost the bookmakers 25 million pounds, or $36 million, the biggest loss on a single sports event in British gambling history.
Anyone can simply be unlucky. But there are systematic biases and errors our puny human brains tend to make repeatedly when we try to predict the future, some of which are evident in the biggest political and sports upsets of 2016.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Essentially the punditry is drowning in the past including Clinton and they are so brainwashed they cannot see the potential in anything. Trump always says that the country has tremendous potential. The punditry simply does not know how to see that let alone make plans for something that has not been created yet.
That is why Trump is winning and they are losing.
A.K.A. Black Swan event.
Just read this form the Condervative Treehouse:
” The second group are those who truly know better; they are older and wiser, they know the truth because they saw it unfold. However, they are also financially dependent on retention of a narrative that sold the change in the past 40 years. These are the willfully blind who have sold-out to the benefit of, and enrichment from, the false economy.
This second group is intent on retaining a historic set of false assumptions by fraud and deception. Mark Levin, Rush Limbaugh, Chris Matthews and Hugh Hewitt fit into this second grouping.”
That’s exactly what I mean about the punditry being backward looking because it’s good for profits.
The elite dilettantes just can’t understand how they cannot validly explain the Trump phenomenon.
It is their arrogance and smug self-satisfaction coupled with a complete lack of empathy, sympathy or experience of the common American who has been shat on by government for at least two decades. They live in their cloistered elitist intellectual worlds and the only time they ever break a sweat is at the gym when their trainer drives them hard. Otherwise, they’re sitting on their fat lazy asses and telling drive-by America why it is so clueless and stupid.
Anyone paying attention knew Trump struck a chord with the average American on day one of his campaign. The polls have always had him in front of all the other R’s in the race. Yet it is a shock to those out of touch only.....
I didn’t know Elizabeth Warren knew how to swim. Native Americans are supposedly poor in the water.
The Uniparty only represents about about 10% of the countries electorate. Any one could see a Nationalist was going to come along eventually and tip overturn the apple cart. The only shock is how fast it happened, not whether it happened.
Her high cheekbones help her slice thru the water like a Zumwalt class cruiser.
Exactly.
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
Black swan events were discussed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2001 book Fooled By Randomness, which concerned financial events. His 2007 book The Black Swan extended the metaphor to events outside of financial markets. Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as "black swans";undirected and unpredicted. He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the September 2001 attacks as examples of black swan events.
"What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.
Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'.
Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme 'impact', and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
I’m surprised that THEY are surprised.
Trump had me with the wall. Then taxes. Then Illegals. Then jobs. Then H1Bs.
SURPRISE!
Humans are great at predicting rare events. Why, there must be ten thousand such predictions for every rare event that actually happens!
Trump doesn’t qualify as a black swan since anyone paying attention knew something like this was coming.
Scott Adams has said many times that Trump will appear to be running unopposed by October and that the word landslide will be used often to describe his presidency.
25% of Bernie Sanders have said they will never vote for Hillary and given a choice between Trump and Clinton 30% said they will vote for Trump.
That spells landslide.
When I heard Trump on Michael Savage in 2012 hoping someone would beat the destructive Obama, I thought, this guy loves the US and if he ran he would get the WH. I knew his rep from living in Manhattan in the eighties.
Easy
President Trump can’t be sworn in soon enough. Obama is going kooky with all his executive actions.
Witches float...
They weren’t wrong- they were intentionally wrong.
It was obvious from the start that Trump’s issues appealed to moderates and conservatives. But they disguised that. They didn’t just ignore it they disguised it and reported on anything else.
Not so mystifying. All it took was for a fearless soul like Donald to hear the voice of We The People and jump in to defend us against the corruption of our politicians and corrupt government, and being ignored by those we elect to help us.
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