57 of 2,472 delegates
(57 bound)
Posted on 05/03/2016 1:09:05 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
Tuesday, May 3, 2016
57 of 2,472 delegates
(57 bound)
Election night data
The New York Times (including exit poll data)
Ace of Spades Decision Desk - Indiana GOP
Indiana Secretary of State
2) Indiana is an open primary. Members of any political party, including Democrats, could choose a Republican primary ballot.
3) The polls traditionally close first in the nation on Election Day in Indiana. Tuesday is no different. Most of the state, including Indianapolis closing at 6 p.m. Eastern. However, the state will not projected until after 7 pm as the parts of the state south of Chicago (Gary) and the southern counties of the state (Evansville) close are in the Central Time Zone.
4) Trump was in front in 7 of the 8 Indiana polls released in April. The only outlier was an IPFW/Downs Center poll conducted over a two-week time frame from April 13 to April 27, where Cruz sported a 16-point edge.
5) To the victor will go the spoils. As a reliably Republican state, Indiana is in the unique position of being a large-ish state that has more statewide plus RNC plus bonus delegates (30) than they do Congressional District delegates (27 delegates (9 districts times 3 delegates)). This means whomever wins the state is guaranteed a base of 30 delegates and realistically should take at least 45 (more likely 48-54) of the 57 total delegates.
6) If Trump wins the Hoosier state, the electoral path of the #NeverTrump movement gets even narrower as the Donald would likely need just 70-80 or so delegates of the 172 available in California (if you include the Pennsylvania unpledged slate of 40 or so pro-Trump delegates) or 110-120 or so to notch the nomination with solely pledged delegates.
This projection assumes that Trump wins New Jersey’s 51 delegate slate, takes 30 of the 36 delegates in West Virginia on May 10 and gets a conservative 40 delegates from the proportional states of Washington, Oregon and New Mexico.
Sourcing
For primary dates and times:
Official GOP websites for states.
For delegate allocation:
The Green Papers
Frontloading Blogspot
For polling data:
Real Clear Politics
Election night data
The New York Times (including exit poll data)
Ace of Spades Decision Desk - Indiana GOP
Indiana Secretary of State
Over before dinner! What’s for desert?
Thanks for those links!!
Dinner?
Trump likely ate Teds lunch today.
Cruz is having crow
Hot and arid.
Cruzesader tears gellato. Will take 20 minutes in the ice cream maker, so... will be ready to enjoy around 7 ish.
TDS FReaks have really ramped it up a few notches here today.
They had quieted down for a while recently.
The pay/post at FR can’t be that great.
and for desert, humble pie.
Busted. Ouch.
: )
6pm?
They dont screw around down there.
Will Carly fall down again tonight ?
Really? Polls close at 6 pm?
Ted’s Diner
Special :
Crow and Humble Pie.
Given the pictures of the lines, I would not count on a 6 PM close. I believe the protocol is everyone in line by closing time gets to vote. At least that is typical. If so, expect it to drag out for a while. Dunno if the newsies will hold their prediction past the official time, however.
Trump! Trump! Trump!
Thank you for the links.
Any freepers from Indiana? Any stories from the ground?
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