Posted on 04/28/2016 11:19:43 AM PDT by monkapotamus
Media types want you to get your knickers in a twist about Indiana. However, the data suggests that it doesn’t matter any more. Rationally speaking, it is probably time to stop writing so much about the Republican race for delegates. Also, a moratorium on “brokered-convention” articles?
Today I write about the PEC delegate snapshot. It is based on data posted here. All polls are current, including Trump +6% in Indiana (n=3 polls). Based on Tuesday’s voting, in which Cruz underperformed polls by a median of 4 percentage points, I will no longer assign a Cruz bonus. Note that Trump overperformed polls by a median of 8 percentage points.
As of today, for recently-unpolled states (NE,WV,OR,WA,MT,NM,SD) I will start using Google Correlate-based estimates. Of those states, Trump is favored in West Virginia (34 delegates) and is near-tied in Oregon and Washington (proportional representation). The rest are Cruz states.
Put through the PEC delegate simulator, the median delegate count is 1333 (interquartile range 1304-1339). The probability of getting to 1237 delegates is 98%:
What if we assume that Trump will lose Indiana? In that case the median drops to 1284 delegates (interquartile range 1278-1287). The probability of getting to 1237 is now 97%...
(Excerpt) Read more at election.princeton.edu ...
Indiana doesn’t matter.. even if Trump would lose Indiana (not likely), 100% lose, not get a single delegate out of the state, he still would need only about 55% of the remaining delegates to top 1237... He’ll get that with ease.
There is no contested convention folks, never was going to be... this thing was over before Wisconsin. Cruz the GOPe and the Press basically lied to you in order to keep up drama and ratings and keep the Cruz folks engaged.
Wisconsin was not a shift in momentum, it was the GOPe machine in Wisconsin giving Cruz a win, in hopes that it could change the overall momentum... it didn’t.
Its time for everyone to just go take some time for whatever they need to recover... recharge and come back ready for the general. If you can’t support Trump, that’s your choice, but he’s going to be the nominee... so if you can’t support him, go decide what you want to do instead, and if you decide you can come back after some time to recover and help with the general election campaign.
My prediction is Trump at around 11 mil votes after Indiana, if not an all time record for GOP primary candidates than very close to it.
When Trump is president will Rush and Mark switch to MSNBC and Air America to praise dems and hate the Donald? Or will the be destroyed when they fly the Cruz/Fiorina plane all the way to the ground?
Awesome, thanks for posting this. I will be using this article a LOT.
Cruzablanca: We’ll always have Wisconsin.
“There aren’t any Cruz supporters left to throw a chair at.
“Not that the Cruz voters don’t deserve it.”
Posts like this really inspire us to vote for Trump. < /sarc >
Now go ahead and whine about how some Cruz supporter called you a name one time, and that justifies what you just posted now.
I’m off before I really do become “Never Trump”. Not because of him, but because of people like you.
Here’s looking at you Ted.
I’m a Hoosier and I believe Trump will 1. Win our primary and 2. These bs stories won’t convince any Trump voters to sit out.
Indiana still matters, but it’s not essential. If you move all the estimates left by 57 delegates, Trump has a good but far lower chance of winning on the first ballot. Trump supporters cannot get complacent about any part of this process.
We cannot be complacent about the Indiana primary.
We cannot be complacent about the other primaries, even if Kasich or Cruz drop out.
We cannot be complacent about the convention rules meetings.
We cannot be complacent about the convention rules votes.
We cannot be complacent about 69 y/o Donald Trump’s choice of a VP.
We cannot be complacent about general election voting.
We cannot be complacent about monitoring general election polling sites for fraud.
It’s not over until Trump’s inauguration, and even then we cannot be complacent. Even once President Trump kicks the communist bigot out of our White House, we have to be alert, aware, involved, and vigilant in ensuring that President Trump governs as Candidate Trump promised, and that he is not captured by the system. It’s not over until the illegals are kicked out, the border is secure, Obamacare is repealed, the vast majority of gun laws are repealed, religious freedom is respected, three decades of liberal encroachment on our individual, God-given rights is rolled back, and our economy is growing again.
Hey, I hit back. I am not going to treat Cruzbots like little flowers because they may not vote for Trump.
They can have Hillary. She will treat them right!
Manafort on msnbc said that we would have a blow out like last Tuesday in Indiana. Love it!
Manafort said that the final nail in the coffin was last Tuesday. Indiana will make Cruz realize that he is in it.
It does!
Delegates = Nails
Cruz = Vampire in coffin
The more nails to keep the lid down, the better!
It occurs to me the only positive thing that having Cruz in the race is that it motivates folks to get out and vote for Trump in the primary.
The more folks that make the decision the better. Eventually there s going to be a battle for control of the GOP. After Ronald Reagan it went back to the Rockefeller wing. This time the entire rotted mess needs to be cleaned out. The larger the vote total for trump, the more he has a mandate to do just that.
It breaks my heart the way so many people on both sides of the Cruz/Trump divide on this forum have so rudely attacked each other. Each attack has hurt, because I know that behind each screen and post and keyboard is a very precious individual whom we would naturally call an ally and friend. I, as a Trump supporter extend my hand to you.
I deeply respect your choice and understand the need to hold with the principles leading you which you have used in your choosing process. In America we all should have and exercise that God-given right without undo interference.
I think there have been elements of such stress and core anger about the way we have been treated by our government for the past 7 years, and the frustration so pent up, that we unthinkingly unload on people who truly are our very best Friends just because we have a momentary disagreement. I further believe that there have been elements of agitators encouraging the discord.
We are united, most of us, in looking to the Lord for our decisions, and it is my belief that when we affirm that unity under Him, it will all be well.
At the risk of sounding Obama-esque in apologizing for wrongs which were not mine, as much as I can do so I DO offer apology.
Each one of us is vastly important to the outcome of the loving and saving of America. We, her true patriots, need to extend respect to each other. So, I do hope that perhaps you can forgive us at least down the road for the offenses given.
I wish you well, my FRiend.
texokie
Exactly.
Dat’s rite.
“Only positive thing that having Cruz in the race is that it motivates folks to get out and vote for Trump in the primary.”
BLASPHEMY!!!!!
(I’m from Indiana)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.