Posted on 04/25/2016 8:46:26 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2
Please be specific. You start with 206 (if that). What states, with EV totals, would Cruz win if he ran against Hillary?
Please don't cite national polls, don't talk about Trump, don't talk about Cruz attributes and policies. Please stick to the question asked.
Cruz’s problem from day one, before all the ugliness and silliness out of him and his campaign during the primary, is he’s an incredibly weak general election candidate. Sure he can fire up a segment of the base, but he can’t reach out much beyond it, which is abundantly evident by the fact he is getting clobbered in the primaries.
If you can’t win votes outside the conservative base, you can’t win a national election, you may be able to win conservative districts, or even a conservative state, but if that’s all your appeal is, you cannot win a national election.
Florida was extremely close in 2012...
I have a few more questions that we need the answers for:
Do you think that Cruz can reach HALF the delegates needed to get to the nomination?
Or more appropriately, half of the delegates that Trump gets?
If he gets so lucky.. Where will he get an increase of at least 100% of delegates in Cleveland?
Do you honestly believe this can be done and him still be viable in a National election?
*keep in mind that nearly 80% of Primary voters Nationally overwhelmingly reject Lying Ted.
Would be nice, but have my doubts that Cruz/Kasich could win in Colorado or Pennsylvania, so deduct 29 EV.
With Cruz’ antics during the Maine delegate selection process, scratch Maine. Take away another 4 EV.
Now that puts him at 269 - very close! I do think Iowa is a stretch, but will let’s go with your estimate.
I think that Missouri can go Democrat after the Democrat governor pulls a McAuliffe and does a “Felon get the vote” trick, amping up the #BLM vote. In that case, Cruz loses another 10 EV, putting him at 259.
Cruz will not take PA. if he is the top of the ticket it will go to Hillary.
I live here. He has no cross over appeal at all.
Why you ask......
He is a wealthy lawyer who built up a million dollar investment portfolio by the time he was 41, 15 years after starting to work in the real world.
His comments on raising the retirement age to 70 are tone deaf. For most folks in the manual trades, working until 70 is out, making it to 67 is really difficult, but many will try. Asking them to make it to 70 is like asking them to fly to the moon. So under that plan 85 percent of folks will have to take early retirement, effectively lowering their income.
Had he not said this I might give him some chances, PA is a pro gun state and Hillary is awful on that. But when you mess with working folks retirement, and you are a rich man who made your money on government service....well that is electoral suicide.
Sorry to say that, but that is what I see on the ground in the suburbs of Philly.
It doesn’t matter. His ground game will backhand, bribe and elbow its way through the electoral college voters.
We’re in trouble no matter what. Our last decent win was 1988. Bush barely won 2000 or 2004.
here is my point, I think that the Republican candidate has a chance at Florida no matter what.
The map you sent me to showed NC as open, so I assumed it was one that Obama won and was not locked down yet.
I add TX, because I think if we nominate any of the other candidates besides Cruz, we are no longer guaranteed a victory there.
Hhahahahaha.. Cruz and Kasich cannot win PA. They also aren’t likely to win WI. I’d highly doubt the ME win you hypothesize as well.
Cruz and Kasich are another Rovesque type of election, the map remains devided and the parties fight over a handful of swing states... praying that their side wins.. when its done.
Its time that this type of electioneering ends, and put up candidates who actually are showing broad appeal and expanding the party... even if it means certain stupid neocon dogma must die in order to do it.
Lol.. Your funny. No shot in Florida, NC or Colorado. Unless they don’t actually vote and conduct back room deals, of course.
Reagan could not be elected governor of California in 2016.
And Reagan would have just barely beat Obama in 2012.
91% of Blacks voted against Reagan in 1984.
66% of Hispanics voted against Reagan in 1984.
Romney states + Florida + Iowa + Wisconsin + Ohio = 269 EVs (a tie, throwing the election to the House of Representatives, where we win)
Florida is an absolute must win state for any Republican. Romney came very close.
The other three are winnable midwestern states. We have been improving in those states in terms of Gov., Sen., Congr. and state legislature. These states argue for Kasich or Walker to balance the GOP ticket. Perhaps Joni Ernst if you’re looking for a female candidate. A midwestern running mate isn’t a guarantee. Ryan didn’t enable Romney to win the midwest in 2012.
As for Trump, I would give the exact same answer. In spite of being from New York and being a social moderate, he has zero chance of carrying that state or other such states in the absence of a landslide victory.
NOTICE: An expanded map would include Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Maine-2 and converting Michigan to district method.
The Press to hurt Trump have given Cruz a pass, once the protection is lifted, people will see Cruz for the despicable, sleazeball, lunatic fringe religious nut, he is. He might win Texas, might.
Bush didn’t win the popular vote in 2000.. I’ve said this a million times, what the GOP is doing isn’t working... with the sole exception of the reelection of a wartime president they haven’t won the popular vote in 28 years... and even that time could not even manage a win by 2.5% of the popular vote.
The NEOCONS and the insane dogma that they have brought the GOP as dogma have to go, they need to embrace the fact that to win the party must expand and it isn’t going to expand while it continues to embrace policies that make their funders wealthy on the backs of everyone else as they sell out this nation. Trump is the only player expanding the party... and he’s doing it by pretty much stating what everyone knows.. free trade as pushed by the neocons is a scam and destructive.... open borders for cheap labor is bad and destructive... etc. etc etc...
The neocons that have dictated policy of the GOP at the behest of their money men for the last 3 decades have to go, the GOP cannot keep thinking they are going to win anything doing the same old failed crap they’ve been doing.
Trump is the only player in the game who can redefine the map, the rest are rovian elections status quo nonsense.
How many electoral votes, does anyone know?
Exactly, Cruz is dead in PA... he never was going to take PA, with or without Trump around... Cruz has no shot at PA, never ever did, nor does he have any shot in a general election in WI or ME either.
Cruz or Kasich or anyone else will not win a single extra state that any Republican would win... the only player in the game who can expand the party is Trump.... and he’s doing that by taking on the dogma that the Neocons in power have been pushing for the last 30 years that clearly isn’t working.
Like him or hate him, he’s the only player in the game who’s got any change of redefining the electoral map.
“Sorry to say that, but that is what I see on the ground in the suburbs of Philly.”
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Believe you...But, PA and many other states were pretty close in 2012...Hillary is such a bad candidate that I think she can be beaten...once the nominations are cast, the dynamics of a 1:1 race will change everything!
FL and OH are going to go Republican regardless of the nominee this cycle.... WI, wouldn’t bet the farm on that at all if they have Kasich or Cruz on the ballot.
I think the better question to ask is which states that Romney won that Cruz would lose.
Canada and Cuba?
Oh, states..... my mistake.
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