“Sorry to say that, but that is what I see on the ground in the suburbs of Philly.”
___________________________________________________________________________
Believe you...But, PA and many other states were pretty close in 2012...Hillary is such a bad candidate that I think she can be beaten...once the nominations are cast, the dynamics of a 1:1 race will change everything!
If Romney had had the same Turnout as McCain he would have taken PA.... however, with that said, Cruz won’t get close to Romney’s numbers in PA.
You could well be right, we all only see a small part of the large picture, so my comments could be in a bubble.
Nonetheless I do not think so and I know the eastern PA electorate fairly well.
Obama won in 2012 here. My wife and I were flabbergasted, we could not see that. Part of it was blatant ballot stuffing in Philly, but even if you took that out Obama won. How? Well in trying to understand that it seemed in talking to folks the right found Romney not all that attractive, and the working class whites thought that they could see no reason to cross over.
In order for PA to go republican, the working class folks have to think the republicans offer them something economically that the democrats do not. Cruz is good on guns and O.K on the border, but he is perceived here as not at all interested in the working or middle class as regards jobs. Right or wrong that is the perception. I know his tax plan is good, but for most folks they have not gone into it enough to see that and anyway, the widespread perception is that congress will not put through a flat tax, as it removes a lot of the opportunities for graft that they seem to currently enjoy.
Now Hillary will likely only get enthusiastic votes from lesbians, bitter divorced middle aged women and various special interest groups promised all sorts of goodies, but she is yapping about maintaining the current retirement system, which does have appeal to the working class. They may not vote for here enthusiastically, but they will vote for her on the basis of self interest.
The only candidate who breaks that is Trump. His bring back jobs platform rings true to the old industrial northeast. He is pro-gun like Cruz. He says things that will actually appeal tot he working and middle class cross over voters that are needed to put PA back in the republican side.
In any case that is how it appears to one PA fellow.