Indiana Republican Presidential Primary - RCP Average Trump 39.3; Cruz 33.0; Kasich 19.3, Trump +6.3

Real Clear Politics ^ | 25 Apr 16 | RCP

[xzins]

Poll, Date, Sample, MoE, Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Spread

RCP Average 4/18 - 4/22 -- -- 39.3 33.0 19.3 Trump +6.3

CBS News/YouGov 4/20 - 4/22 548 LV 6.6 40 35 20 Trump +5

FOX News 4/18 - 4/21 602 LV 4.0 41 33 16 Trump +8

WTHR/Howey Politics 4/18 - 4/21 507 LV 4.3 37 31 22 Trump +6

[over3Owithabrain]

Excellent point.

If the GOP gets away with this, there is no reason they wont do this every future primary season. Just ran a bunch of candidates in hand picked states to keep anyone from 1,237 and then select the party chosen guy at the convention. That way the pesky voters don’t get a say.

In fact, that may well be what they’ve been doing it’s just that Trump threw a wrench in it this time.

I never ever ever again want to hear that Ted Cruz is anti Establishment

[xzins]

Based on these polls in Indiana, and being conservative elsewhere, my model now has Trump with 1256 delegates, 19 more than needed for his 1237.

[Rational Thought]

Their strategy of teaming up is likely a lose/lose proposition.

Unless I’m wrong, Kasich is still on the ballot, and I don’t believe his supporters are particularly fond of Cruz. My thinking is the more press this partnership gets (and it’s getting plenty on cable news), the more this gives credibility to the Trump campaigns claim of a rigged system.

It will be interesting to see poll results in the next few days.

[edie1960]

Mr. Trump probably won’t be back to Indiana until Thursday or sometime next weekend. He is delivering a major foreign policy speech with teleprompter at the National Press Club early Wednesday afternoon. Hope his landslide victories Tuesday will significantly influence Indiana voters. Also, would be great to get Governor Pence endorsement—or even Bobby Knight, which he mentioned.

[xzins]

Pence caved on religious rights last year, so he’s not anyone that I hold up as a tower of strength. In general, though, voters in a state tend to respect their governor at voting time.

Bobby Knight would probably be more important and with greater name recognition, though.

[remaxagnt]

Our primary isn’t till may no reason to be here yet

[remaxagnt]

I know dozens of union dems voting Trump

[xzins]

It makes sense. The same thing happened with Reagan.

[edie1960]

It was interesting to see Trump and Chris Christie pay a visit to Pence’s residence. Pence might be on the short list for VP based on the fact that Indiana is a swing state. However, my first choice at this time is California Congressman Duncan Hunter, Jr.
BTW, as a Boston Celtics fan, it would be awesome to have Larry Bird on the Trump Train.
Just praying Indiana doesn’t take any cues from Wisconsin.

[Ohioan]

Indiana has been savaged by the effect of phenomena that Trump has addressed directly. Frankly, the approach I have suggested for the fall campaign, would work very well in Indiana, now.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3422096/posts

[GonzoII]

You’ll have to reboot again after tomorrow night....

[xzins]

Indiana is not like Wisconsin which it does not border. It borders Illinois, Kentucky, and Michigan, all of which went for Trump.

It also borders Ohio which went for Kasich (only because he is governor), but even there Cruz was not 2nd place...Trump was.

I think Indiana is very much like Ohio as a rust belt agricultural state, but dissimilar in that the democrats haven’t made the inroads around the state that they have in Ohio.

[Wallace T.]

The GOP-e is following Romney's playbook. The only wrinkle is Kasich formally ceasing campaigning in Indiana and Cruz doing likewise in Oregon and New Mexico. In part this may be benefiting Cruz because Kasich is governor of a neighboring state and another third place finish would be disastrous. Indiana also has more evangelicals than any other state north of the Ohio and east of the Mississippi. Cruz lost all the Southern states except Texas by narrow margins. (Trump won Florida by a wide margin, but that state is not culturally Southern south of Ocala.) However, Cruz does better with Northern evangelicals, who tend more to be conservative Lutherans and Reformed church members than Southern Baptist or independent Bible church members. He won Iowa and Wisconsin due to their support. Given his father's background, Cruz is also big with charismatic and Pentecostal Christians. He won southwest Missouri, center of the Assemblies of God denomination.

[edie1960]

Just remembered that one central issue that should really give Trump a huge advantage is his consistent message on how Carrier Air Conditioning left Indianapolis for Mexico. He mentions it in every speech/rally. Wish he could recruit some of the laid off employees for ads, etc. BTW, there were a couple who attended his rally last week, which he acknowledged.

[xzins]

If they get more than I’m giving them for tomorrow, then it will be a huge night indeed for Donald Trump.

[xzins]

Larry Bird....LOL....it would be over if Trump were endorsed by Bobby Knight and Larry Bird. Add Oscar Robertson, and he’d win the nation.

If only Trump could have gotten Bart Starr and Brett Favre in Wisconsin!

[edie1960]

Last sports endorsement comment for the day. Trump did revel in having Buffalo Bills Head Coach Rex Ryan introduce him at his Buffalo rally.
And he did talk about Green Bays QB in Wisconsin, although he never actually mentioned Aaron Rodgers by name.
I know he admires Knight and I just respect Bird as a devoted Celtics fan even though he has been in charge of the Pacers for several years now.

[xzins]

Well, if Babe Ruth were to endorse Trump......

:>)

[Hawthorn]

>> If Trump wins Indiana. It is over. He will win the nomination <<

Probably so. But on the other hand, a Cruz victory there would probably assure an open convention, meaning that the Rubio and Kasich delegates would likely hold the balance of power on a second ballot.

[Hawthorn]

>> The only person not treating the people as pawns is Trump <<

Agreed. He only treats them as suckers who will support him regardless of any contradiction he states, or regardless of any liberal-leaning policy stand he takes. Nothing to see here. Get over it and move along.