What response have I gotten?
Crickets.
These Ted Cruz fanboys know the truth, as does their preferred candidate, Ted Cruz, and yet they still insist on their suicidal quest to both wreck their own party and even risk their country, all for one man's blind personal ambition. Absolutely shameful.
It would be laughable if it weren't so dangerous.
At this point, Ted Cruz's egotism and narcissism make Donald Trump's ostensible character deficits pale in comparison. They long ago ceded the moral high ground.
Vote Trump
The Rosy-Cruzians are blowing smoke. They are nothing but dead enders living in the past.
“state any plausible scenario whereby Ted Cruz limps into the GOP convention with, at best, 700 delegates or so, and magically seizes the nomination from Donald Trump without irreparably splintering the party, destroying voter enthusiasm, inducing countless Trump voters to stay home, and guaranteeing a Hillary victory in November.”
I don’t think Cruz has a shot of winning without most Trump supporters getting behind him. How can he do that? I don’t see how.
But I do think Cruz could run for Trump’s VP. If Trump does not get to 1237, Cruz could negotiate for that spot.
Of course, I have no idea if he is willing to do that, or if Trump is willing to do that.
If Cruz prevents Trump from getting to 1237, his path to the White House as president is pretty bleak.
I will be voting for the Republican nominee in November. But I am afraid many Trump or Cruz supporters will not vote for anyone other than their candidate. Hope a Trump-Cruz ticket is still possible. Otherwise, I hope the two camps can unite somehow.
I think you summed that up very nicely. Well stated. Bravo.
The Cruzer speaks...
Three possibilities. The first possibility is that something happens to Trump that renders him incapable of running: anything from assassination to a stroke to a (no pun intended, not trumped up) Federal indictment. If Cruz is out of the running, that leaves the GOP only squishy establishment candidates.
The second possibility--not probability, mind you, but a possibility--is that Trump steps in it in a way that forces even his supporters to disown him, so that he either suspends his own campaign, or comes to Cleveland as damaged goods. Again, if Cruz is out of the running, that leaves the GOP only squishy establishment candidates.
The third, and most likely possibility--again, not probability, possibility--is that Cruz end-runs Trump in Cleveland, winning on the second or third ballot, just as Abraham Lincoln end-ran Seward in 1860 and won on the third ballot. At that point, Trump would have a choice to make, whether he was more concerned about himself or about the nation, and whether he was willing to support Cruz or split off third-party and ensure Her Highness becoming the next President.
All of the above are possibilities. The probability is that Trump will obtain the nomination, and there is no question in my mind that Cruz, and most Cruzers, will support him in the general election. But it is better to have Cruz as Plan B rather than Kasich, or White Knight.
Well I will answer your assertion.
First off, there is more danger of splintering the party that just a Cruz nomination. The party could be split even with a Trump nomination.
Lets say Cruz does come in with 700 or so delegates, possible, but I believe the number to be higher, about 800 to 850. But regardless, lets use your numbers. Lets also premise that Trump does not get the 1,200+ necessary for a first round nomination. Why that premise? If Trump gets the first round nomination, all of this is simply navel gazing.
So lets say Trump has 1,100 and Cruz has 700 at the first round. Neither wins. But now there are many unbound delegates who are freed up for the next round. The second round looks to be either a three or four way split with Cruz picking up some unbounds and Trump loosing a few to either Cruz or whoever the GOPe candidate(s). Possible that Trump could gain enough for the 2nd round, but I really don’t see it.
Now here is the advantage for both Trump and Cruz. If both of them stay firm on rule 40 and their delegates vote to not change the rule, then the GOPe vote has to support one or the other in a two head race. So lets now call it Trump 1,000 Cruz 850. They realize that neither has a chance to win alone. Trump could “make it” with bringing either Cruz or the GOPe candidate on board. The danger is if EITHER Trump or Cruz delegates give up on rule 40. In that case, the GOPe nomination becomes a real possibility and the party ends up shattered and a lot of the conservatives and trump voters go elsewhere. I can even see a lot of people changing their party registration.
Options:
Unity ticket - Trump / Cruz not my preferred choice but I could live with it. This Solomon’s choice would sit well with conservatives and would keep roughly 20% of the party to support a unity ticket. This also shuts out the GOPe and moves the party solidly towards conservatism.
Leveraged ticket - Cruz trades his votes to have Trump put a Conservative on the ticket (Walker?) and nominate Cruz for SCOTUS. In my opinion, the best move. Keeps conservatives in play, removes Cruz from the field and puts a strong conservative on the court and in the VP position. Allows Trumps populism to gain independents without losing conservatives.
Lost ticket - Trump refuses Cruz’s offers and decides to put GOPe on ticket (Kasich or Rubio). This will likely buy Trump enough delegates. However, he will lose about 10% of the conservative base of the party. Maybe he makes it up with independents, In my opinion he will not. I am of the opinion that by the time elections roll around, there are just not that many undecided left to be won over. Sounds like a gamble to me. If he does, he will bring many more liberals into the party and shift the GOP further away from conservatism. In essence, it will fracture the party as the Tea Party (generally) voter will leave.
Another possibility
Trump 1,000 Cruz 850 leaves 670ish split between GOPe and unbounds.
Third round - Trump continues to push the he is the nominee and some of his comments have pissed off conservatives and poisoned the well against working with Cruz
Either the anti-Trump mentality resurfaces and the GOPe supports Cruz who wins the nominee. In my opinion, even as a Cruz supporter, the WORST of all possible outcomes. Trump supporters get pissed and don’t vote in the General (20% ish). Cruz looses to Hillary. The Trump camp says, see you needed to support us, the GOPe wing says you conservatives can’t win elections. This only gets worse if Trump runs independent.
Now if BOTH Trump and Cruz are denied the nomination and some GOPe candidate comes to the nomination. Then an independent Unity ticket might work. Might work. Might shatter the party.
Well said. Thanks.
Great post and I would love to hear what Rush and Levin would respond with. Your scenario challenge to Cruz supporters is wonderfully worded and a succinct way of having them consider the ramifications of their actions and efforts in futility at this point.
Amen, and Amen, and Amen!
Go Trump!
Remember this reply?
“Can Donald Trump really hit 1,237 before Cleveland?”
http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/20/politics/donald-trump-ted-cruz-1237-delegates/index.html
LOL I was just thinking how similar this election is to when I used to watch the Eagles with Cunningham and “Buddy-ball.” Never knew until the last play.