Posted on 04/22/2016 12:47:59 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Well, for one thing, it would be counterproductive. With three, four or five candidates drawing delegates, it simply prevents anyone from getting to 1237 and ensures that the GOPe gets to install one of their own establishment guys at the convention. The malleable "rules" are designed to to preserve, protect and defend the establishment ruling class. Nothing more.
Cruz knows this. He has betrayed the grassroots.
What if Ted Cruz became the nominee and lost to Hillary?
He's the darling of the press now, while he's attacking Republicans. As soon as he starts attacking their sacred cow (snark intended), they will turn on him like vultures on a deer carcass. They've got a whole lot of ammunition to use, too.
Cruz staying in or dropping out has no bearing on who Trump picks as VP.
Cruz isn’t it. He burned that bridge long ago.
Kasich isn’t going to be Trumps VP. Kasich is only in the race to deny Trump the nomination. He’s not looking for goodwill from Trump, he’s looking to keep Trump out and be rewarded by his establishment friends. if Kasich was interested in aligning with Trump, he would have suspended already.
Both Cruz and Kasich are trying to stop Trump, and are hoping to be rewarded by the GOPe. What they’re being promised, I don’t know. But — Neither one has any path through the nomination to the White House. That’s fine for the Uniparty, bad for the rest of us.
no. Cruz is a loser.
Cruz cannot win a majority of delegates, he is mathematically eliminated from the first ballot from doing so.
Cruz’s only option would be to be selected on a follow-up ballot if no one reaches a majority. Even then he wouldn’t have “won” the delegates.
Well I will answer your assertion.
First off, there is more danger of splintering the party that just a Cruz nomination. The party could be split even with a Trump nomination.
Lets say Cruz does come in with 700 or so delegates, possible, but I believe the number to be higher, about 800 to 850. But regardless, lets use your numbers. Lets also premise that Trump does not get the 1,200+ necessary for a first round nomination. Why that premise? If Trump gets the first round nomination, all of this is simply navel gazing.
So lets say Trump has 1,100 and Cruz has 700 at the first round. Neither wins. But now there are many unbound delegates who are freed up for the next round. The second round looks to be either a three or four way split with Cruz picking up some unbounds and Trump loosing a few to either Cruz or whoever the GOPe candidate(s). Possible that Trump could gain enough for the 2nd round, but I really don’t see it.
Now here is the advantage for both Trump and Cruz. If both of them stay firm on rule 40 and their delegates vote to not change the rule, then the GOPe vote has to support one or the other in a two head race. So lets now call it Trump 1,000 Cruz 850. They realize that neither has a chance to win alone. Trump could “make it” with bringing either Cruz or the GOPe candidate on board. The danger is if EITHER Trump or Cruz delegates give up on rule 40. In that case, the GOPe nomination becomes a real possibility and the party ends up shattered and a lot of the conservatives and trump voters go elsewhere. I can even see a lot of people changing their party registration.
Options:
Unity ticket - Trump / Cruz not my preferred choice but I could live with it. This Solomon’s choice would sit well with conservatives and would keep roughly 20% of the party to support a unity ticket. This also shuts out the GOPe and moves the party solidly towards conservatism.
Leveraged ticket - Cruz trades his votes to have Trump put a Conservative on the ticket (Walker?) and nominate Cruz for SCOTUS. In my opinion, the best move. Keeps conservatives in play, removes Cruz from the field and puts a strong conservative on the court and in the VP position. Allows Trumps populism to gain independents without losing conservatives.
Lost ticket - Trump refuses Cruz’s offers and decides to put GOPe on ticket (Kasich or Rubio). This will likely buy Trump enough delegates. However, he will lose about 10% of the conservative base of the party. Maybe he makes it up with independents, In my opinion he will not. I am of the opinion that by the time elections roll around, there are just not that many undecided left to be won over. Sounds like a gamble to me. If he does, he will bring many more liberals into the party and shift the GOP further away from conservatism. In essence, it will fracture the party as the Tea Party (generally) voter will leave.
Another possibility
Trump 1,000 Cruz 850 leaves 670ish split between GOPe and unbounds.
Third round - Trump continues to push the he is the nominee and some of his comments have pissed off conservatives and poisoned the well against working with Cruz
Either the anti-Trump mentality resurfaces and the GOPe supports Cruz who wins the nominee. In my opinion, even as a Cruz supporter, the WORST of all possible outcomes. Trump supporters get pissed and don’t vote in the General (20% ish). Cruz looses to Hillary. The Trump camp says, see you needed to support us, the GOPe wing says you conservatives can’t win elections. This only gets worse if Trump runs independent.
Now if BOTH Trump and Cruz are denied the nomination and some GOPe candidate comes to the nomination. Then an independent Unity ticket might work. Might work. Might shatter the party.
Cruz brings no benefit to Trump at all. Trump ideally could use a Palin type woman governor in a toss-up state but I don't know of any that fit the bill.
Jan Brewer?
And why did they choose FR to be their platform to support Globalism, an end to U.S. sovereignty, and a lyin’ foreign born phony Washington Ivy League Wall Street Elitist? I just don’t get it.
Do you realize who you are saying your sh!t to? Rude.
Palin is hated by Independents and Democrats. J.C. Watts could be a winning pick as VP.
Well, the sentiment has always been ‘vote your conscience in the primary and for the most conservative in the general’.
Until this year TX was right there with CA in such late primaries that there was a presumptive nominee way before either of us could vote. Being finally able to actually vote your conscience, now having tasted it, it would be hard to tell the remaining states to siddown and shaddup, especially sine this is the first primary EVER where there were TWO men actually worth voting for!
She’s 72. shed need to be at least 10 years younger to be a good choice.
Sadly it’s only her age that would be an issue.
“The third, and most likely possibility—again, not probability, possibility—is that Cruz end-runs Trump in Cleveland, winning on the second or third ballot, just as Abraham Lincoln end-ran Seward in 1860 and won on the third ballot. At that point, Trump would have a choice to make”
No, the election would already be lost by then, due to the Republicans betraying their own base and their own voters, and whatever decision Trump makes then will be irrelevant.
What do you think about having Kasich on Trump’s ticket to unify the party.
Would bring in ~150 delegates now, and Ohio for sure in the general...
Well put. I totally agree. Thank you.
Ouch !
Carson and Rubio cared. Cruz is willing to endanger his fellow Americans.
He would lose the general in a landslide anyway. His courtroom antics of trying to ban sex toys would make him unpalatable to so many voters that he would even be toxic as Trumps VP.
Whatever you think of him, Cruz did have some victories, so it's to be expected that he'd stay in the race. Your critique applies better to Kasich who only racked up one win for all his efforts.
“Ben Carson’s campaign just sort of fizzled out.”
In some parts of New York Ben Carson beat Ted Cruz -despite Carson not running-, so he had enough to keep running a campaign based on ego if he wanted to.
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