Posted on 04/21/2016 11:25:03 AM PDT by Trump20162020
Donald Trump’s victory in New York stonewalled Ted Cruz’s path to clinching the Republican nomination, making it increasingly difficult to block the GOP front-runner.
The Never Trump forces are pledging to play in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and other states in the Northeast next week, but the prospect for another momentum shift won’t likely come until next month, with races in Indiana and Nebraska, and eventually California in June. The immediate calendar leaves lots of room for Trump to gain steam.
A key part of the problem, strategists say, is that the focus of the effort has been stopping the front-runner instead of promoting an alternative candidate. The movement never truly coalesced around Cruz, and the senator’s endorsements from reluctant Republican colleagues underscored the difficulty his campaign has in engendering excitement for him. Meanwhile, John Kasich now feels emboldened by the notion that Cruz can no longer win the nomination outright. But he and Cruz will be fighting over similar turf in a way that might benefit Trump.
“There’s been this ‘We’ve got to stop Trump,’ but not an equal amount of enthusiasm for ‘Let’s get behind Cruz to do that,’” says John Brabender, a GOP strategist and former adviser to Rick Santorum’s campaign.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
As I pointed out earlier in my previous post, the country has changed MASSIVELY since the 1980s. The Democrats already have built-in advantages thanks to massive demographic changes in this country. Trump will help drive up the Democrat vote this November with his incendiary rhetoric, crude language, insults, and polarizing campaign style. All the polls show this.
That is the most specious argument Trump supporters make. I was active in that campaign as a volunteer. Reagan was never as personally unpopular as Trump is. In the spring of 1980, Carter was benefiting from a "rally round the flag" effect stemming from the Iranian hostage crisis. But as the year wore on, and Carter showed himself to be ineffective in dealing with that crisis, as well as the issues of inflation, high interest rates, high unemployment, high gas prices, etc., that effect wore off.
There is no correlation between that campaign and this one. People know Hillary is a liar, is a leftist, is incompetent - and they still prefer her to Trump by double digits. That lead is not because she is getting the benefit of people rallying to her side over some international crisis - people don't like her and don't trust her. But they still like her and trust her more than they do Trump.
Trump really is an instinctive conservative, just now getting actually focused on the ideological aspect of politics.
Let’s test that.
So given the most recent actual election data we have (primary season), is your hypothesis validated?
I’m not seeing an upward spike in Democrat vote - just the opposite.
I am seeing a significant upward spike in the GOP vote, mostly due to Trump.
Your pessimism is very poorly placed. At least wait till the fall campaign is underway to pass judgment. (It is pretty clear that Donald is now going to be our candidate. Give him a chance to demonstrate what he can do, before you write us all off.)
It is true. We have seen a big spike up in the GOP primaries from four years ago. No doubt about it all. But a large number of that are people coming out to vote against him. He is like double edged sword in that respect. Also a large number of Democrats and independents and blue collar workers have crossed over to vote for him in the Republican primaries no doubt attracted to his positions on issues such as trade and building the wall and making Mexico pay for it as silly as that sounds. Trump has won about 38% of the GOP vote so far (while securing about 45% of the delegates—so much for the charge that the game is rigged against him, it appears to be rigged in favor of him based on these numbers) but he will need much more than that to win a national election in November. I don’t deny for one minute that Trump has a very large and enthusiastic following. In the business world, you can have a large market share and do very well for yourself. In the political world, you need to build a successful coalition and win a majority of the market share, which according to the current polls, DT has a very long way to go.
“I don’t know how you win a national election with numbers like this.”
Run as a conservative. The white vote will carry the 50+% in the states Republicans must win. It’s when you go squish that you lose elections. Ask Romney.
According to all the polls I’ve seen recently, HRC is going to crush Trump by a YUGE margin. Maybe you’ve seen some other data that I’m not aware of. I do believe that Trump will likely secure the GOP nomination. But the GOP is going to suffer a landslide loss in November, the worst we’ve seen since 1964. Get ready for Hillary.
Some are beginning to doubt there ever was sane conservatism. All the unconservative complaints we voiced over the years have only grown under conservative leadership.
How can Cruz, who can't even get republicans to vote for him, win anything?
The conservative leadership you refer to... is that the Boehner/Ryan/McCarthy/McConnell/McPain “conservatism”? Is that Romeny’s (sic) Severe Conservatism?
I liken Sane Conservatism to the founding principles. Our nuttiness today is from departing from them. These principles, espoused going back to the writing of the Constitution, are timeless.
Yeah but who will get the Diebold vote? That is the real question.
Won’t disagree. Great discussion! Thanks, FRiend!
Next few weeks will settle out the nomination.
After that, we’ll have to see how any Hillary email FBI investigation impacts things. That’s a total wild card.
Also Hillary’s true health is a big unknown.
Unfortunately it is hard to identify the sane ones because they either were never sane or there is some specific disease that only elected officials succumb to once elected.
Fortunately or unfortunately we are being saved from a Marxist democratic candidate by rigged democratic primary so we will face a lightly disguised Marxist.
I said when Obama was elected first time that the country had either taken on a distinct Marxist bent or we were victims of well organized vote fraud, I now think both premisses are true.
I think they both lose and lose badly. Right now, we have no good choices.
Trump brought Jeb’s likability down to zero in a few months with Jeb spending millions defending himself.. he can easily bring HRC down a few notches by Nov
The calls for Cruz to get out will start very shortly. He’s done.
Dam it, that Trump’s good.....he turned Ted Cruz into Jeb Bush right before our very eyes.
16 posted on 4/15/2016, 7:42:54 AM by Liz (SAFE PLACE? A liberal’s mind. Nothing’s there. Nothing can penetrate it.)
| Back in June 2015 the entire Mainstream Media didn't give Trump a chance to get the nomination. And look where are we now. Trump has been attacked 24/7 by the mainstream media and the GOPe media: National Review and many more. He did not "get a pass". Sure, he got more television time than anyone because he understands the media business like nobody who has run for president before. But he also took more incoming than anyone else from various quarters. The Wall and controlling Muslim immigrants were huge issues that Trump took on single-handedly. Then everybody else meekly joined in after Trump took the hits. Another key thing Trump accomplished was to destroy the Bushie and neocon dynasty. Bush got us into Iraq and it was the wrong decision. Trump called a spade a spade, and now the Republican party is no longer under the Bushie shadow with all that negative baggage. As far as the satisfaction polls go, I say look less at that than the momentum that Trump has built. 50,000 Democrats in Mass (as I recall) switched parties to vote for Trump. Independents and working class people love the guy. Looking at the 2012 electoral college results and you'll see that Romney was actually fairly close. There were close votes in Ohio, Penn, Florida and Michigan -- and if Trump can flip those around, which intuitively makes sense given the dissatisfaction with Obama and the crowds that Trump is attracting, then Trump gets elected. True, other States are more of a long shot like New York, but you never know being a favorite son. Regardless, it's hard to conceive of another Republican candidate doing better against Hillary than Trump. |
Democrats brought in 40 million illegals to vote democrat...
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