Posted on 04/13/2016 5:09:25 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz is close to ensuring that Donald Trump cannot win the GOP nomination on a second ballot at the party’s July convention in Cleveland, scooping up scores of delegates who have pledged to vote for him instead of the front-runner if given the chance.
The push by Cruz means that it is more essential than ever for Trump to clinch the nomination by winning a majority of delegates to avoid a contested and drawn-out convention fight, which Trump seems almost certain to lose.
The GOP race now rests on two cliffhangers: Can Trump lock up the nomination before Cleveland? And if not, can Cruz cobble together enough delegates to win a second convention vote if Trump fails in the first?
Trump’s path to amassing the 1,237 delegates he needs to win outright has only gotten narrower after losing to Cruz in Wisconsin and other recent contests, and would require him to perform better in the remaining states than he has to this point.
In addition, based on the delegate selections made by states and territories, Cruz is poised to pick up at least 130 more votes on a second ballot, according to a Washington Post analysis. That tally surpasses 170 delegates under less conservative assumptions — a number that could make it impossible for Trump to emerge victorious.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Mr. Trump has already benefited from $2 billion in “free media” according to Rush (NYT, I think). This mediaPAC will eventually turn on him once they have milked him for all the advertising revenue they can get.
Step back from the pipe and take a breath. Its the Ohio term to ensure the State has a Candidate. So if he drops out aka quits hes incapacitated as the standard bearer for Ohio. If done before the Convention Vote, its automatic. So stop trying to make it about votes at the convention.
Geeze the Establishment nominating crowd is getting crazy lately.
Next time you gaze into your magic ball can you give me tomorrows lottery numbers?
Trump “Kasich, whats it going to take for you to drop out before the convention?”
Kasich “ I want my state to be first in line for the manufacturing jobs you are bringing back to America plus 5 million dollars to my, um, charity.”
Trump “Done.”
At the risk of suggesting you haven’t read rule 40b let me “(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall
demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of
the name of that candidate for nomination.”
My concern is that some can’t read or don’t want to read. You cannot vote for anyone not legally in nomination no matter how much you want to .
Rule 40 d points out that only “entitled “ to be cast are counted. “(d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of
the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall
announce the votes for each candidate whose name was presented in accordance with the provisions of paragraph (b) of this rule.
A vote for a non nominated person is not “entitled to be cast”. Rules are rules. Time for the rules. And there will be no changing the rules without a floor roll call vote!! Awesome. You don’t think Trump and Cruz would help cut their own throat do you?
>> A vote for a non nominated person is not “entitled to be cast” <<
I don’t read it that way. To me, “entitled to be cast” refers to the number of votes each delegation is allocated. So if New York has been allocated 95 votes, then NY is “entitled” to cast 95 votes.
Moreover, the total number of votes “entitled” for the whole convention is 2472. So a majority is anything more than 1236.
Now if some votes are cast for candidates not formally nominated, the current wording of Rule 40d seems to say that those votes will not be announced by the Chair. So I think they will just be treated as abstentions. But the requirement for a majority of at least 1237 votes will still be in effect.
>> there will be no changing the rules without a floor roll call vote!! <<
The 2012 rules can be changed by the Rules Committee. Then the 2016 rules can be changed with a vote on the floor. Not a mystery or a surprise.
>> You don’t think Trump and Cruz would help cut their own throat do you? <<
No. But if the lawyers for the Rules Committee should agree with your very restrictive reading, then the Committee members for Cruz would get together with the Committee members for Kasich and Rubio and change the rules so as to allow votes for the latter two gents on the first ballot.
Then what I think next is that on the second ballot, the delegates previously pledged to Rubio, Kasich and maybe Trump will start moving over to Cruz. If Cruz isn’t the winner on the second, he will probably win on the third.
Actually, the rules can be changed on the floor by a voice vote - it happened in 2012. And once the chair says "the ayes have it", that's all she wrote.
That will cause violence. There will be a roll call, I assure you. None of that crap. We got that in COLORADO. Never again.
A vote for a person not in nomination is clearly “not entitled”. How could one be entitles to vote unless a name is in nomination? There is no such entitlement.
There will be a second ballot?
The second ballot outcome depends on who can make the delegates
the best deal
see post 112
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3420499/posts
All it will take is one little tweet from the RNC and all of Ted’s ‘pledged’ delegates will throw him out like yesterday’s trash. Enter Jeb Bush or whoever the RNC picks.”
It doesn’t really matter if the GOP picks sCruz, Jebbito, Kasick, Ryan or Boobio, since any one of them will lose in the general and the GOPe can go on about their crony capitalist business under either Shillary or the Bern.
the number is 800-531-9301 there's a message that asks you to push "1" if you agree it's wrong then a follow on message that you can listen to or ignore. Out of curiosity, I did a search on that number and there are places where it says if you received a call from it, you were spoofed, but there is also a Facebook entry that describes that it is currently in use for the intended purpose.
Thank you for that article regarding if Kacich’s delegates go to others if he drops out before the ballot. (No - bound delegates stay with him).
Although I did see something in Section 16 of the RNC rules talking about the penalties to delegates if they don’t vote for their guy. But - it also said that if their guy drops out and they vote for someone else it is okay.
But that doesn’t make sense - it would seem that the State’s rules (as described in your article) overide the RNC national rules.
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