Posted on 04/11/2016 9:32:26 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo
CASPER – Study a map of presidential primary results and you’ll see Donald Trump dominating in the northeast. You’ll see him beating more established candidates in Arizona and Nevada and stunning pundits with dominance in the South.
But where you won’t see Trump winning big, or winning much at all, is in Wyoming, Utah and Idaho, three of the nation’s reddest states. There, the real estate mogul and famed reality star has struggled to connect with voters.
Trump is still the front-runner for the GOP nomination, but he has failed in the Northern Rockies. He lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in Idaho and Utah and has claimed only one delegate so far in Wyoming – the same number as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has since dropped out. Cruz, in comparison, earned nine.
Several factors have contributed to Trump’s lack of success in the Northern Rockies, political observers say.
His top opponent, Cruz, has more often discussed issues that resonate with voters here – land issues, energy and gun rights.
Cruz also has made deeper inroads in the region. He has visited Wyoming once and will return Saturday. Trump has yet to visit.
And Trump’s brash style also may be hurting him, especially with Mormon voters who make up a sizable voting bloc.
Ground game Cruz got nine of the 12 delegates at the GOP county conventions in March and is expected to do well when the state’s final 14 are chosen Saturday at the Wyoming GOP Convention in Casper.
The Cruz campaign has been on the ground in here since October. But the Texas senator’s success in the Cowboy State is the result of more than his ground game, said Ed Buchanan, former state House speaker and chairman of Cruz’s Wyoming efforts.
“The positions that Trump has held over his entire career just don’t resonate with Wyoming voters,” Buchanan said. “I don’t think he shares the values and lifestyle of Western people. I don’t think he’s really in touch with what drives the economy out West – with agriculture, with natural resources, with energy production.”
Cruz, on the other hand, is from Texas, a state that has much in common with Wyoming, Buchanan said. And Cruz has been steadfast on the Second Amendment, which is important to Wyoming.
The senator first spoke in Wyoming, frequently treated as a flyover state for presidential elections, on Aug. 20 for a GOP fundraiser. When he returns for the state GOP convention, he will be the only major GOP candidate to make the trip.
The Trump campaign is sending Sarah Palin in his stead. And Idaho Gov. Butch Otter will speak to Republicans on behalf of Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Libertarian streak Trump’s most intense support comes from white voters with lesser educations and lower incomes. In theory, that might help Trump with blue-collar voters – especially in parts of the state hammered by the energy downturn.
But Wyoming possesses more of a libertarian streak rather than Trump-style nationalism, said Matt Dallek, a professor in the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
“It is possible that Trump has continued to damage himself,” Dallek said. “There’s a sense that, look, we want a Republican, but it’s not necessarily Trump.”
In the Western and more conservative parts of the country, Dallek said, Trump may not be playing well to voters because of questions about his personal morality and whether he’s truly committed to limited government.
Also playing into Trump’s lack of popularity here are Mormon voters.
Nine percent of Wyomingites are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to a recent Pew Research Center study.
Mormon voters have rejected Trump in Idaho and Utah because they are uncomfortable with his anti-Muslim comments, which stir memories of persecution of the LDS in American history.
Teton vote During last month’s Republican county conventions, Trump won in only one place – Teton County. And even that might be more of a fluke than a sign of deep-seated support, says one prominent Republican.
Keith Gingery, from Jackson and an ex-legislator, said many at the Teton County Convention were pushing for an undeclared delegate.
“We thought it that would give us much more of an advantage because people would woo them,” he said.
But the undeclared candidates couldn’t get a majority of the vote. After several rounds of voting, Jon Baker, a delegate supporting Trump, won.
Although Cruz has so far come out on top in Wyoming, Trump has started a conversation that has energized voters, said Campbell County Republican Party Chairman Chris Smith.
Faith appeal Some of Cruz’s support comes from his ability to appeal to the faith-based community, Smith said, while Trump’s aggressive views on immigration, nationalism and employment have jumped out to Wyoming voters in an election year where unemployment in the state is rising and the energy industry is in a slump.
Some Trump supporters say their voice hasn’t been heard in the process.
Clarence Vranish is one. The ex-state legislator said there was no vote, no debate on who they would support in Uinta County. His county went to Cruz.
The list of politicians Trump has vanquished is already lengthy and could grow to include Kasich and Cruz before primary season is over.
But Trump could still fall short of the necessary number of delegates, about 1,237, to secure the nomination. If that happens, his poor showing in the Northern Rockies will have played a role.
How many towns in NY have more voters than Wyoming? 50? 100?
It’s about time to reprieve Jon Lovitz as Ted Cruz: “I can’t believe I’m losing to this guy.”
Another example of elegant prose from one of your trumpers:
“As usual, another Cruzbot who deflects. Trump isn’t the ego-maniac you think - in fact, Cruz is more of a narcissist than Trump ever dreamed of being. Besides, that he is the spawn of Satan. Jesus said that those who lie belong to their father the devil. I rest my case. Ted is just like obama - every time he opens his ugly mouth - he lies.”
Is your job dependent on Japanese trade?
Do you favor states rights and the electoral college or would you favor a nationwide election where he who gets the most votes wins?
The states and the Parties are free to write their own rules. If you don't like it you can move or change parties.
>Another example of elegant prose from one of your trumpers:
That was pretty bad.
Still he’s right about Cruz lying all the time:
https://amp.twimg.com/v/745e21cb-199f-4ffb-8238-8c5f67810ef1
The beauty of the ugly Cruz response, is that they are deleted so you can’t go back and reference them.
I have had three or four of your little compatriots fire off vile graphic homosexual insults at me and Trump. Then they get deleted, and of course, they never happened.
Will I have copied them. I have them.
I can produce them, but I’m not going to post that stuff on the forum for the women here to read.
I’ve had about every insult hurled at me your little frustrated team can think up.
Hey, it is what it is.
"Do NOT, and I repeat - do NOT ever email me again. I have no desire to correspond with you now or ever. Take your spawn of Satan (Cruz) and shove him up your arse!"
How about Trump, the great business man and the lawsuit king.
Going back to 1983, Donald Trump has reportedly been named in 169 lawsuits and that’s only at the national level. Sued by celebrities, personal assistants, prisoners, mental hospital patients, unions, and wealthy businessmen.
No wonder he has so many lawyers on retainer.
Well, Doughty, I have not seen those and I appreciate your not posting them.
I hope it isn’t typical.
Things have gotten ugly here, but, well, I love you and I have a gardenia in my hair.
You’re still dodging the Lyin’ Cruz video:
https://amp.twimg.com/v/745e21cb-199f-4ffb-8238-8c5f67810ef1
Watch the video and tell me, is Cruz a liar or not?
I just sent you an FReepMail.
I hadn’t considered whether you are male for female.
If you are female, I apologize if the FReepMail offended you.
That was not my intent. My intent was simply to reveal to you what type of posts I was talking about, and not on the open forum.
Take care...
D1
Town halls?
“Delegates to the state convention are elected by the county conventions. Delegates to the county convention are elected by precinct caucuses in their respective counties. Any person registered to vote Republican as of the call for precinct caucuses in a given precinct may vote in that precinct’s caucus.”
That’s about how they say it is in any states I’ve read about - so yeah, delegates are elected by caucuses unless:
(1) People at the caucus are given no opportunity to vote
(2) People there are presented with a pre-determined slate of delegates by the Party
(3) People elect delegates who are then crossed off the list in favor of Cruz delegates
(4) People support delegates for Trump who are refused by the Cruz operatives.
etc. etc.
I’ve been there in my state and seen it.
We’ve all read about it in many states now.
The more I see of you, the more I hope you can’t vote absentee from Tokyo.
Trump LOVES the Establishment
He has donated more money to them than Ted Cruz ever made!
>He has donated more money to them than Ted Cruz ever made!
Cruz has picked up 50 million from the establishment so far. How much has Trump donated to political groups? It’s probably far less than 50 mil.
Perot never ran as a Republican. Perot never won a primary. Perot never beat the GOP candidate anywhere, much less lead in the GOP delegate count. Really, Trump reminds me a louder but more successful Steve Forbes but I don’t many remember that one.
You private email me then post my response to you? Talk about being rude - as I said - shove your spawn of Satan up your arse. And, I’m NOT a dude. Stop stalking me.
Ted’s entire life is a lie, and those who lie are of their father the devil. If lying is a pretty thing to you - then you seriously need help.
Which commandment did the caucus votes violate?
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