Posted on 04/10/2016 8:40:27 PM PDT by Steelfish
Donald Trump Could Be Headed For A Catastrophic General Election Defeat by Jack Mirkinson
April 3, 2016 T Donald Trump could be headed towards a catastrophic general election defeat if he becomes the Republican presidential nominee, according to a host of recent polling and analysis.
There were gasps on Friday when the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato posted new projections showing that Trump could lose the Electoral College vote to Hillary Clinton 347-191.
Sabato is not alone in forecasting such a wipeout. Trump is trailing both Clinton and Bernie Sanders by double digits in some national polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at fusion.net ...
I guess we better all get behind John Kasich then. since he is the only republican candidate that consistently beats Hillary Clinton and/or Bernie Sanders.
You’re certainly free to line up behind Kasich if you choose to do so.
Cruz would concede around 1130pn
Donald Trump's Plan A.
.
>NO WAY! Think of the hoards of Cruz supporters who will simply flock to the Trump banner!
Based on the primaries there doesn’t seem to be all that many Cruz supporters out there.
“Wasn’t he predicting a trump”
Sabato’s predictions change as the polling changes; he’s really not much of a guru, just applies polling data to project electoral numbers
You are spot on! I have been on phone banks for years. I think I have made at least 10,000 calls. To get a person on the phone is a rarity. I can be watching my TV and when the phone rings, I get the caller I.D. on my TV. If the call is unknown, I don’t answer. I especially hate those phone calls that say their Windows mainframe is being infected by my computer and they need to get into my computer for a fix. I might answer them once just to give them a hard time.
In Clinton vs Trump
Clinton starts with 190 Trump starts with 37
In Clinton vs Cruz
Clinton starts with 177 Trump starts with 114
This means that Cruz is securing thee times as many electoral votes as Trump at the outset. Moreover, Clinton starts further away from 270 by 13 electoral votes with Cruz compared to Trump.
This is a long way away but there is no honest reason to believe that Trump has a better chance of beating Clinton.
There is ONE very BIG reason to think the tides WILL turn MANAFORT the rabid pit bull of delegate securing!!!!
Trump won’t get more than 10% of the black vote, and I would venture to guess he won’t get more than 20% of the Hispanic vote. There is simply not enough White people left to elect Trump.
Cruz would fare even worse...
“all she needs is Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota.”
By the way, do you really think Virginia will vote Cruz,the only candidate that has sworn to abolish 5 huge government agencies?
I’n not saying I disagree with him, but the voters of VA might have something to say about it, given he’s going to put an enormous amount of them out of a good career job and security.
Campaign rhetoric and promises have consequences ...
He wouldn’t do it - he’d just drop out.
Well, if we’re going to concern ourselves with polls that show Donald Trump losing to Hillary/Bernie, we should be honest with ourselves and also recognize that Ted Cruz also consistently loses to her and John kasich consistently wins against her. I’m not in this for Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, I’m in this to win. period.
>This is a long way away but there is no honest reason to believe that Trump has a better chance of beating Clinton.
The only way for Cruz to win the primary is to steal delegates and disenfranchise GOP primary voters. Hillery will run endless ads about all the dirty deeds Ted did to GOP voters. All this will massively suppress GOP voter turn out and throw the election to her.
Let’s see.. July 2015, Trump couldn’t win a primary.
August 2015, no chance of a primary victory.
September 2015, a minor annoyance for Jeb Bush’s cruzing to a victory
October 2015, Jeb Bush stuck in the bottom of the polls, looks like Rubio will be victor in upcoming primaries
November 2015, Jeb Bush resurgence, Trump has no chance at primary victory
December 2015, Trump’s estimated primary hauls hover around 100 delegates.
And it just goes on and on and on.
The most fascinating thing is that when you look at the internals in these projected national election matchups, Trump meets or exceeds every Romney (loss) number today. That’s vote among blacks, latinos (actually slightly ahead of Romney there), men, women, etc.
So I could possibly see projections putting Trump at a Romney loss level, but these blowout numbers are just wishcasting.
Considering that Trump really isn’t directing his message at the general electorate at this point, instead focusing on the primaries, I’d say he’s in a very secure position vs Hillary (or Bernie —hahahaha, let’s say that again, or Bernie...) as he’s STARTING with Romney’s election night loss to Obama as the baseline.
If that is his baseline after, what, 9 months of negative attacks against him? That leaves quite a bit of overhead to pick up from the undecideds between now and election day.
The thing that really gets me is the wishcasting on Cruz... For some unknown (hahahahah) reason, these projection sites put him MUCH higher even though HIS internals are MUCH less than Romney’s as to the exit polling in 2012.
Let’s face the truth; liberals are picking who would be easiest for Hillary to defeat, the one constant as to whom they’ve said would be SUPER easy has been Trump. Since the GOPe is desperate to hold onto congress and LOSE the White House come the fall, and the liberal media really wants to say Madam President (doesn’t REALLY matter if it is Hillary or Bernie at that point), I have to assume that the wishcasting is specifically and irrevocably aimed at ensuring Trump gets no where near the general.
Or to put it very simply, if Cruz can’t defeat Trump in the Republican primaries, how the heck is he going to win the general? I know democrats who are considering hopping for Trump, I don’t know a single one who would consider in the slightest voting for Cruz.
“Clinton starts with 190 Trump starts with 37”
http://www.270towin.com/maps/bMcf
Clinton 260 to Trump 109
“Once Trump starts throwing punches at her, it’s all over.”
Did you ever stop to think that not everybody has a positive response to Trump’s banality and obnoxiousness?
Could have a dampening effect on his numbers?
On the other side we have Hillary who's under investigation by the FBI. She's a total sellout and liar... but do you hear the democrats trashing her 24/7 Hell no, they're not vile scummy little backstabbers like the GOPe...
You are citing the map that adds in 2012 results.
that is fine
but Cruz does even better on that map option as well.
Clinton has only 235 on the Cruz match up that adds 2012 results.
Clinton is only 10 away from victory in the map you are referencing
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