Posted on 04/08/2016 5:34:08 AM PDT by Kaslin
"Donald J. Trump withstood the onslaught of the establishment yet again." That's the first sentence in a Trump campaign statement tweeted out Tuesday night by the Washington Post's Robert Costa. It's also a strange way to respond to a solid defeat, reminiscent of the Monty Python knight who insists he is winning after both his arms are hacked off.
Ted Cruz -- "Lyin' Ted" to the Trump campaign -- won 48 percent of the votes in Wisconsin's Republican primary. Trump won 35 percent. John Kasich got only 14 percent. The delegate count was even more one-sided. Cruz won 36 delegates. Trump won six. Kasich won none.
In the three weeks since March 15, Trump has made little progress in his drive to win the 1,237-delegate majority necessary for the Republican nomination. The Washington Examiner delegate count shows Trump with 743, some 494 delegates shy of 1,237. He needs to win about two-thirds of remaining delegates to get a majority.
The race in Wisconsin shows why that seems increasingly unlikely. One reason is that Trump speaks conservatism as a second language he hasn't bothered to master.
Hence his offhand remark that women who have abortions should be punished -- something advocated by no one on any side of the issue. Hence his blistering attacks on Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, whose policies have been supported well nigh universally by Wisconsin Republicans.
In contrast, Ted Cruz showed an ability to adapt to terrain and vary his approach from his usual college-debater style. Appearing with his wife, mother and supporter Carly Fiorina, he spoke of the achievements and tragedies of women in his life. He has learned to leaven his crisp issue stands with an emollient tone reminiscent of Marco Rubio.
Cruz seems unlikely to overcome Trump's lead in New York, where the relatively few registered Republicans seem to lack the social connectedness that helped him pile up huge majorities in the Milwaukee suburbs. But he has demonstrated that his appeal is no longer limited to evangelicals. He may lose to Trump in the Northeast but block him from amassing 1,237 delegates in contests elsewhere.
John Kasich's weak Wisconsin showing may reduce his numbers elsewhere. Or it may indicate that Wisconsin voters wanting to stop Trump were tactically voting for Cruz -- and that anti-Trump voters in affluent Northeastern districts where Kasich outpolls Cruz may flock to Kasich.
Either way makes it harder for Trump to get to 1,237. And even if Kasich and Cruz split the anti-Trump vote in Pennsylvania, that would get him only 17 statewide delegates; the state's other 54 delegates elected by congressional district will be uncommitted.
The Trump campaign's Tuesday night tweet accused Cruz of being a "Trojan horse, being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump." The assumption is that the candidate who wins a plurality of delegates is entitled to the nomination even if he falls short of a majority.
Nonsense. The majority requirement is not arbitrary, as Trump has suggested, but a rational means of preventing the nomination of a candidate opposed by a majority of the party. Trump, who has won 37 percent of primary and caucus votes and 31 percent of delegates so far, is such a candidate. His high negatives and poll deficits against Hillary Clinton give Republicans reason to fear disaster if he is nominated.
Democrats have a similar majority rule and for a century, from 1836 to 1932, required a two-thirds supermajority for the nomination, to allow any large faction -- Southern segregationists, big city machine bosses -- a veto over the nomination. The parties' current majority requirements are modest in comparison.
In recent years candidates with plurality wins like Trump's have gained added support because they were widely acceptable. Trump isn't widely acceptable, and he hasn't gained added support. His 35 percent in Wisconsin against two rivals is just slightly above his poll numbers there and is identical to the 35 percent he got in New Hampshire against a dozen opponents in February.
One final note on Wisconsin: Republican turnout was higher than Democratic -- 1.1 million versus 1.0 million. Democratic turnout was not depressed by lack of suspense: Bernie Sanders won with 57 percent, and there was a hotly contested partisan race for state Supreme Court.
Republican turnout also exceeded Democratic in six other general election target states this year. That's a vivid contrast with 2008 and a mildly positive harbinger for Republicans -- if they manage to nominate a candidate without Trump's huge negatives.
Sanders 56.6% 567,936
Clinton 43.1% 432,767
2012
Mitt Romney 44.1% 346,279
Rick Santorum 36.9% 289,648
On the Democratic side Obama ran uncontested.
NY Times 2012 Election Results
2008
John McCain 224,755 54.8%
Mike Huckabee 151,707 37.0%
Dems Barack Obama 646,851 58.1%
Hillary Clinton 453,954 40.8%
“Speaking of that, some wise words from our Esteemed Founder late last night:”
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Jim has been pro-Trump for some time and, fortunately, not as rabid anti-Cruz as most trumpers on here. He has at least called for civility (something Trump himself doesn’t understand. But the only one that should have bowed out by now is Kasich.
What apparently most other trumpers don’t understand is that the process is working the way it was designed. This is the 1st time in 2 generations that we’ve had 2 candidates that enough people are enthusiastic about to drag the primaries out to the end. If no one reaches the magic 1237 then the system worked the way it was designed to work and things move on to the Convention. No one is STEALING anything from anyone. If Trump, in his huge, really smart brain that hires the best people, can’t figure out how to win at the Convention then he really ain’t that smart or didn’t hire the best people.
I also will vote for Cruz if somehow they rob Trump from the nomination. Been a Cruzer for most of the campaign, but the more I hear about him, his wife’s job and involvement with the Council on Foreign Relations, I have dropped him like a hot potato.
Also, Cruz suddenly surrounded by Ryan, Reince -deer in the headlights - Prebus, Lindsey I’m holding my nose Graham, and if Cruz can’t see he’s being used as a tool ONLY to stop Trump. This is sick.
How about that little meeting with 53 private planes on that island off Georgia (or SC?) of top GOP, top Silicon Valley uppity rich donors...... all to stop Trump. And why? When you’re close to the target, the opposition starts to rumble.
I’m all in for Trump. What do you think? Just sayin.
Here is why I say BS.
Let me see if I understand.
Hillary loses to Sanders by 13.4 % in Wisconsin and all is well. Sanders gets 56% of the vote.
Trump loses to Cruz by 13.1% and Trump is finished. Cruz gets 48% of the vote.
Does that about summarize it?
Let me see if I understand.
Hillary loses to Sanders by 13.4 % in Wisconsin and all is well. Sanders gets 56% of the vote.
Trump loses to Cruz by 13.1% and Trump is finished. Cruz gets 48% of the vote.
Does that about summarize it?
That was the plan Trump and Bill hammered out before Trump announced.
Where did the votes come from? From very angry Wisconsin voters. I live in Wisconsin. The turnout in my very Republican county was YUUUUUGE.
My friend works at the polls nearby and told me early voting was out of the ballpark! That’s great.
We here in WI have been through 3 governor votes in recent years, once for the oh so disgusting recall of Gov. Walker. We love us some Walker, but seeing him surrounded by the GOP elites was sickening to many of us.
I’m all in for Trump. Talk Radio here was way over the top for Cruz, calling Trump every slimy name in the book. I wrote to them, asking if they would treat Hillary or Bernie that way? Thoroughly disgusted by them.
WE will turn out, we DID turn out in droves. We had VOTER ID which was excellent. Finally got to use Voter ID after the left fought in court for 5 years. Less voter fraud. Illinois couldn’t drive busloads up to Milwaukee to vote. haa. Bout time.
So, YES the extremely high voter turnout was legit!
If the contest were clean as you are suggesting that would be 100% true. Nothing could be further than the truth. The Republican party apparatus is trying to swing the election so they remain in a position to stuff their pockets. They care no more about fair play than about unicorns. The only thing that's bringing the people out is to vote for Trump and the orders of the party elite to vote to bring him down.
McConnell is heavily donating to Cruz. The Party Elite, lobbyists and big donors are holding secret meetings to plan strategy to subvert the will of the electorate. The party is trashing Trump with $10's of millions of $ of ads 24/7.
Trump is running against the entire party elite and all the lobbyists. They are using Cruz to weaken Trump so they can either put in a stringer or let the Dems win, either works for them. Then people like you sneer at Trump for calling them out. You think we are all stupid to ignore the facts and hear only the slurs and name calling?
I think I would worry about finishing third in Virgina, Florida and Ohio with more than 80% voting against Cruz who also went those three Vital States unlike Wisconsin who hasn't vote Republican sense Reagan and poor Ted didn't win not one county in Florida, Virginia and Ohio.
Currently I see Ted is under 80% voting against Ted Cruz in New York and currently third out 3 people in Maryland.
I’ve noticed that. All that’s missing is the slogan.
Not exactly. Facts are that Donald has alienated so many republicans if he does not get to the convention with 1237 he will not win. He hired someone yesterday that he should have hired a year ago. It is too late now to build that infrastructure. Cruz is growing support. DT is not and doubtful he can rebound. Once again, too late.
I am glad to hear your experience of the Primary and that the voters in Wisconsin are galvanized. I hope all the Nation will rise and vote in November like their lives depended on it.
I am less inclined to believe that the totals are authentic in the counties where the party apparatus is strong and I do believe that some of the votes were attempts by the other side to damage Trump.
We are all seeing through a glass darkly and its hard to know what to believe at several removes. I’m very worried about the integrity of the vote when it is tabulated by overseas groups tied to Soros.
///They are very similar to Obama supporters.
Indeed, however Bambi was able to grow support. Trump is losing support. Cruz is growing support.
This Saturday a congressional caucus will be held in one of the of the two Wisconsin Congressional districts where Trump won to select three delegates each plus an alternate.
A condition of their selection is that each of those delegates and the alternate must pledge to support whoever the winner was in that congressional district for the first two rounds of voting casting ballots for POTUS in the GOP national convention in Cleveland.
So any speculation the about second round ballot change had better take that into consideration leastwise from the perspective of the Wisconsin delegation.
The Cruzite motto.
>> the process is working the way it was designed <<
So I guess the Republican Party is supposed to operate like a republic instead of like a democracy. But the process obviously doesn’t have the blessing of Mr. Trump and his supporters.
Oh, well . . . .
So Cruz wan all the liberal counties including Madison and Milwaukee, trump won all the Rural counties. So who is the conservative????
So Cruz won the very conservative and somewhat conservative vote, while Trump won the liberal/moderate vote and the Dem crossover vote. So who is the liberal?
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