Posted on 04/07/2016 6:10:31 AM PDT by Rockitz
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’s overwhelming victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday makes it all but impossible for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination ahead of the RNC convention in Cleveland.
Trump currently leads the GOP field with 743 delegates. He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.
A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, aren’t officially bound to any candidate. The fight for California’s massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the state’s 54 Congressional Districts.
As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trump’s performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.
In other words, it is a static estimate, assuming no great change in the trajectory, tone, or focus of the campaigns. It isn’t based on any future missteps, like those experienced by the Trump campaign ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Our assumption is, in many respects, the most optimistic for the Trump campaign. Because of this, it underscores the steep challenge Donald Trump faces heading into the 4th Quarter of the primary season.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
The fact is that if Trump does not reach 1237, it will be an open convention. I am not a never-Trump. I have said the nominee has to be either Cruz or Trump. Polls also show Trump losing to Hillary but apparently only polls favoring Trump are valid to Trump supporters.
Fairy tale match ups are hot garbage. Any pro pollster without an agenda will tell you that.
The fact is an open convention tosses the WH and Senate to the Dems. Is that what Cruzers really want?
Trump has won massively more states and votes than any other candidate. Ted Cruz could not win at the ballot box and now must rely on the Romney, Bush and the rest of the GOPe to carry him across the finish line. Sad. I expected better from Ted Cruz.
Not according to logic and not according to the polls. TC>HC
Exactly...Hillary in the White House will make NO DIFFERENCE to them.
No argument here on your points. I was just addressing the guy who said the Civil War wasn’t worth it.
Trump needs to go one-on-one with Cruz to show off his over-powering understanding of economics, the bureaucracy, world history, US history, military strategy, current events, foreign policy, his political prowess, his grasp of judicial review, and his knowledge of the US Constitution and federal law.;)
I'd pay to watch.
Donald is deaf to feminist squealing. He might think like a guy, but he’s consistent about it. His attitude is: ladies, if you don’t like the heat in this kitchen, why did you ever come in here to cook?
Neither are his voters.
Good luck without his voters.
The most recent national head to heads on RCP show Cruz losing to Clinton and Sanders just like Trump.
Cruz can out dazzle Trump with the cerebral capacity, but how much will does he have? I’d sooner somebody resolute enough to give us half a loaf, but completely baked, than a full loaf, which is half baked.
How many lives should be shed to stop the TPP, considering how slaves are employed in Malaysia?
I do not agree with your premise that an open convention gives the WH and Senate to the dims.
Trump supporters may not like the outcome of an open convention but that is the way a nominee is selected if no one wins outright before the convention. Cruz is entitled to vie for the nomination. He is an excellent candidate.
Trump has been going to DC to meet with GOPe and is meeting with Paul Ryan- is he a sellout to the GOPe or just trying to win the nomination with the help of the party?
Destroying the party has been his goal along. That is what he is being paid to do by his friends the Clintons. Why do you think him and Bill had that two hour phone call just before he announced? He’s been running as the perfect example of what Hollywood/NPR/NYT Liberals think all conservatives are. Bigoted, misogynistic, xenophobic, loud, boorish and vulgar. If they could just find a trailer park living, tube top wearing relative somewhere it would be the perfect parody.
I want to hear Trump bring up Hillary’s running interference for Bill Clinton against the women he’s raped. I’m pretty sure Cruz and Romney wouldn’t have the balls.
It’s a poor, very poor prediction as far as predictions go because it makes no allowance for 323 unbound delegates. For Example, Trump won 25 of 40 unbound delegates in Missouri. And there are many more.
So Flynn and Leahy flunk the mathematical analysis test.
Breitbart must be scraping the bottom of the barrel in their new hires. Michelle Fields, ick! Then Shapiro, blech! Now a couple of flunkies named Flynn and Leahy. Perhaps Flynn and Leahy are outside ‘consultants’ meaning they are undesirable to hire but are talerable for a short gig that involves arithmetic, yeah give ‘em a cubicle and a phone, and a skirt to chase or a Butch Dyke, whichever, whatever.
Here are more relevant data to date to work from, but there are plenty more including Schmubio’s 171 soon-to-be unbound hostages especially the ones in FL that will go Trump but #nevercruz:
CRUZ %Votes #Delegates/Total
Iowa 27.6 8/23
Alaska 36.4 12/28
Oklahoma 34.4 15/40
Texas 43.8 104/155 ***
Kansas 48.2 24/40 ***
Maine 45.9 12/23 ***
Idaho 45.4 20/32 ***
Utah 69.2 40/40 ***
Wisconsin 48.1 36/42 ***
TRUMP
New Hampshire 35.3 11/20 ***
South Carolina 32.5 50/50 ***
Nevada 45.9 14/28
Alabama 43.4 36/50 ***
Arkansas 32.8 16/40
Georgia 38.8 42/76 ***
Massachusetts 49.3 22/42 ***
Tennessee 38.9 33/58 ***
Vermont 32.7 8/16
Virginia 34.7 17/46
Kentucky 35.9 17/46
Louisiana 41.4 18/41
Hawaii 42.4 11/19 ***
Michigan 36.5 25/59
Mississippi 47.3 25/40 ***
Florida 45.7 99/99 ***
Illinois 38.8 53/67 ***
North Carolina 40.2 29/71
Arizona 47.1 58/58 ***
Additionally Trump won the majority of delegates in Missouri with 25/40; Missouri delegates are unbound.
There is a lot in the party that needed to be destroyed because it was basically go along to get along.
True, if the unbounds are swayed Trump, then he could make it over the top that way even with the bound ones not quite over the top.
Trump is never going to do that. He would show everyone he is an empty suit on policy. He has no core conservative belief so unless someone was back stage feeding him the answers it would be a disaster for him with the general public. Thirty second sound bites play well on the stump, but not so much in a real serious debate. Cruz has been asking for that for month and all Trump does is tweet invective all day. He is running a reality show campaign because that is the intellectual level of most of his core supporters. The Kim Kardashian of politics.
Trump is deaf to many things including feminists- the question is how will the MSM assist Hillary in making Trump the bully and Hillary the victim? That could be a big negative for Trump.
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