Posted on 04/06/2016 11:16:58 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
A Monmouth University survey released Wednesday shows Trump taking 52 percent support, followed by Kasich at 25 percent. Ted Cruz has 17 percent.
The April 19 primary in New York will go a long way toward determining whether Trump can reach the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the GOP nomination outright and avoid a contested convention.
At Trump’s current level of support, he’s on pace to take a strong majority of the state’s 95 delegates, and it appears that he may run the board.
“If this result holds in every single congressional district, Trump will walk away with nearly all of New York State’s delegates,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.
A majority of New York Republicans — 57 percent — said Trump’s myriad controversial remarks, from musing about punishing women who get abortions should they be made illegal to encouraging a nuclear arms race in Asia, will have no impact on how they vote in the primary.
Twenty-nine percent said Trump’s controversial remarks make them less likely to support him, while 7 percent said they’re more likely to support Trump because of his comments.
Seventy-two percent of Republicans in New York say that sharing their home state with Trump will have no bearing on whether they support him or not. Fourteen percent said they’re proud to hail from the same state as Trump, while 13 percent said they’re embarrassed.
Kasich is the Republican candidate who does best in a head-to-head match-up against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, according to pollsters.
If the Ohio governor were the GOP nominee, 80 percent of Republican primary voters said they’d cast a ballot for him over Clinton. Only 70 percent said the same of Trump, and 66 percent of Cruz.
“It is interesting that Kasich would be a stronger nominee in Trump’s home state, but it is purely academic,” said Murray. “There is almost no probability that any Republican would be able to win New York’s electoral votes.”
Kasich has no chance to win the nomination outright, but is staying in the race in hopes of an open convention. He’s argued that he’ll run stronger than Cruz as the anti-Trump alternative in upcoming contests in the northeast.
There is still an opening, however, for Kasich and Cruz to make gains on Trump, the poll found.
Forty percent of New York Republicans said they are unlikely to change their minds from the candidate they currently support, but 34 percent said they’re willing to consider a different candidate. Twelve percent said they’re hardly committed to their candidate at all, and 14 percent are undecided.
The Monmouth survey of 302 likely New York GOP primary voters was conducted between April 3 and April 5 and has 5.6-percentage-point margin of error.
Texas primary results:
Ted Cruz 43.8
Donald Trump 26.7
So first time politician Trump does much better in his home state than sitting Senator Cruz.
Aha! I see that you agree!!
-- ... wisconsin makes Cruz the surging candidate ... --
Pre-CISE-lee!
Don’t you love this pollster asking leading, negative questions related to Trump along with asking for preference? Did they do that with the other candidates, no!
Even in running a preference poll they get their brainwashing in.
Failing miserably? You are a scream. Trump winning 22 states and the most delegates. Cruz winning 10 contests and lower delegates. Wake up on May 1st....a true nightmare for you Cruz lovers.
Are you equating "the cocktail gay party circuit" with New York?
New York has voted democrat in the last seven national elections.
Cruz is scum. No other explanation. He loves those gay parties. What does he do for the money? Cruz is getting paid for a service. What is it? Maybe we might not want to know.
:-)
No, he is in no way getting his clock cleaned. He is the only one who can win without the convention. You are delusional in your logic!
One little state like Wisconsin does not make a surging candidate when Trump has swept almost half the country!
Like Cruz wasn’t in his?
Building belonging to the City of New York will have free for all bathrooms thanks to our Mayor.
That is exactly what I computed ... but with delegates. If Trump gets 52% of the delegates, Cruz has been mathematically eliminated from getting 1237. I doubt Cruz will get a delegate count in double digits. I expect Kasich to get more delegates than Cruz in NY.
In two weeks it will all be over ... he may stay in the race ... but his support will fall off the table ... no one wants to throw their vote away by choosing the 2nd place guy who cant get there.
Amazing how easy it is to drop context when you are looking for a soundbite.
What are you talking about?
Yes, Cruz has to struggle from a 3rd place position and he knows that if he does poorly he is finished with any hope of getting the nomination outright.
Trump is the only real man running!
Cruz is. He goes to New York for gays night and Cruz is the very important person. My stomach gets queasy thinking what Cruz does for all that money. I hope he takes his AIDS tests every six months.
WI won’t be remembered after April.
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