Posted on 04/06/2016 11:16:58 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
A Monmouth University survey released Wednesday shows Trump taking 52 percent support, followed by Kasich at 25 percent. Ted Cruz has 17 percent.
The April 19 primary in New York will go a long way toward determining whether Trump can reach the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the GOP nomination outright and avoid a contested convention.
At Trump’s current level of support, he’s on pace to take a strong majority of the state’s 95 delegates, and it appears that he may run the board.
“If this result holds in every single congressional district, Trump will walk away with nearly all of New York State’s delegates,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.
A majority of New York Republicans — 57 percent — said Trump’s myriad controversial remarks, from musing about punishing women who get abortions should they be made illegal to encouraging a nuclear arms race in Asia, will have no impact on how they vote in the primary.
Twenty-nine percent said Trump’s controversial remarks make them less likely to support him, while 7 percent said they’re more likely to support Trump because of his comments.
Seventy-two percent of Republicans in New York say that sharing their home state with Trump will have no bearing on whether they support him or not. Fourteen percent said they’re proud to hail from the same state as Trump, while 13 percent said they’re embarrassed.
Kasich is the Republican candidate who does best in a head-to-head match-up against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, according to pollsters.
If the Ohio governor were the GOP nominee, 80 percent of Republican primary voters said they’d cast a ballot for him over Clinton. Only 70 percent said the same of Trump, and 66 percent of Cruz.
“It is interesting that Kasich would be a stronger nominee in Trump’s home state, but it is purely academic,” said Murray. “There is almost no probability that any Republican would be able to win New York’s electoral votes.”
Kasich has no chance to win the nomination outright, but is staying in the race in hopes of an open convention. He’s argued that he’ll run stronger than Cruz as the anti-Trump alternative in upcoming contests in the northeast.
There is still an opening, however, for Kasich and Cruz to make gains on Trump, the poll found.
Forty percent of New York Republicans said they are unlikely to change their minds from the candidate they currently support, but 34 percent said they’re willing to consider a different candidate. Twelve percent said they’re hardly committed to their candidate at all, and 14 percent are undecided.
The Monmouth survey of 302 likely New York GOP primary voters was conducted between April 3 and April 5 and has 5.6-percentage-point margin of error.
Not exactly, you get outside of New York just go North and then west, it turns into west Virginia
The entire state is not New York City and even New York City is not as left as most people fear (Certain spots are, but you get into the outer boroughs the demographics change to blue collar workers and religious immigrant families). Drive outside of Manhattan, you can not believe how many churches you find. They just have an idiot for a mayor right now.
Let’s hope. Cruz will finally get to use a bathroom of choice he’s always hoped for.
If Cruz does not get 90% of the New York delegates, Cruz is mathematically eliminated.
95 delegates baby. Isn’t that what you Cruz walking dead types always scream?
Your complaint would be a lot more valid if Monmouth wasn't an A-rated pollster. Oh, and their data is what everyone else is saying too:
Thank God they will tell Cruz to go jump off the Brooklyn bridge.
Wrong question. The question is WHEN will Trump drop out?
He's getting his clock cleaned, can't win anywhere, can't beat Hillary, can't beat Sanders. So, will he drop out before he gets the GOP nomination, or after?
If Cruz gets mathematically eliminated I want some more debates. This time between Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, and Mitt Romney, so we will know what our leaders have in store for us.
Oh poor baby. Excuses for Cruz’s third place finishes starting already. I it’s all about delegates you Cruz thug lovers from Chicago.
Across the river into New Jersey
The Ocean County Republicans held their endorsement vote, 105 Trump, 26 Kasich, 6 Cruz
Ocean County is reddest county in New Jersey and just endorsed Trump yesterday. Even when Obama won the state in both 2008 and 2012, he lost ocean county by yuuge margins.
What has the national party done for NY or NJ other then thumb their noses at us?
Cool. Trump is winning West Virginia to. Thanks for pointing that out.
Someone please explain to me how Cruz would win the general election when he cannot get over 20% in the crucial swing states... Florida, Ohio, New York, Virginia, etc. ?
These are crucial states that Republicans must win and these are the states he has done most poorly in, and not even coming in 3rd place in some of them.
Yep NY is not WI where the media will love him as much. The people are more in your face, but you can bet Trump will have protestors for cruz to take their side again.
I’m betting on after.
:>D
He is getting his clock cleaned but he is in the lead by far?
Did you mention Cruz got his clock cleaned just a very short time ago when Trump one the winner take all state of Arizona? Or, the entire South before that? I bet not!
But meaningless wisconsin makes Cruz the surging candidate I guess who will now compete on Trumps home turf and get clobbered.
Oh yeah Cruz is a hypocrite. Loves the cocktail gay party circuit but hates New York. Finally we see Cruz go down....his favorite. The media has thus far protected Cruz. Let’s see how Cruz does when the media isn’t fawning all over him. This should be fun.
No, it's the Trump supporters who brag about "winning" and polls - because they can't brag about Trump's non-existent conservative credentials or lifelong support of conservative causes.
"Donnie-come-lately" the realty TV star is trying to act out the role of a conservative, but is failing miserably at it because he doesn't have the right script.
If anybody loves the cocktail gay party circuit it would be the Donald.
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