Posted on 04/06/2016 10:03:41 AM PDT by justlittleoleme
It’s not that hard to imagine a contested convention. In fact, with Donald Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates looking tenuous, especially after his loss in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, it’s a real possibility. And it’s not hard to see how Republicans might think of Kasich or Ryan as good nominees. If Republicans were starting from scratch, both might be pretty good picks, especially from the perspective of the party “establishment” in Washington.
But Republicans won’t be starting from scratch, and the “establishment” won’t pick the party’s nominee. The 2,472 delegates in Cleveland will. And most of them will be chosen at state or local party conventions a long way from Washington. Few will be household names, having quietly attended party gatherings in Fargo, North Dakota, or Cheyenne, Wyoming, for years with little remuneration or recognition. Although the proverbial Acela-riding insiders might dream of Ryan or Kasich, there are indications that the rank-and-file delegates are into Ted Cruz — and they’re the ones who will have votes in Cleveland.
-snip-
The 2,472 delegates have nearly unlimited authority to rewrite the convention rules, and if most of the them really wanted to see Ryan or Kasich nominated, they could probably find a way to do it. Or, if the voting was a stalemate between Trump and Cruz for many ballots, a true dark horse — maybe someone far more obscure than Ryan or Kasich — could emerge as a compromise. We can’t rule out these outcomes.
But we’re also learning more and more about who those delegates are now that they’re being chosen. They’re not members of the Washington “establishment.” Instead, they’re mostly grass-roots activists, and many of them want Cruz to be their next president.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Aaaannnnnd, 8 years of Hillary.
Nate Silver. Love him or hate him. But this is a man with a proven track record. His bona fides are solid.
Is there anyone in the country more hated than Ryan?
Nate Silver. Love him or hate him. But this is a man with a proven track record. His bona fides are solid.
LOL. Silver says fairy tale match up polls are hot garbage. You going to take his advice on that also?
“They’re not members of the Washington “establishment.” Instead, they’re mostly grass-roots activists, and many of them want Cruz to be their next president.”
Whoopsi!
Hitlary comes to mind.
Been saying this all along. The “GOP-E” does not have all the power some imagine. You won’t be able to get a majority of those delegates to nominate anyone other than Trump or Cruz.
“Nate Silver. Love him or hate him. But this is a man with a proven track record. His bona fides are solid.”
uhhh, not so much.
NATE SILVER: Here’s who’s favored to win the Iowa caucuses (Odds of winning: Trump 54%-Cruz 33%)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3391537/posts
WE are getting JEB
not Ryan, not Cruz
Silver is dumber than I thought.
TED. CRUZ. WILL. NEVER. WIN. THE. NOMINATION.
Weird to pick less popular Cruz over Trump. But no matter what games the party plays, Cruz has no chance against Hillary. Rightly or wrongly, to regular people he comes across as a hard right/evangelical candidate. His silliness in the pulpit, the laying on of hands, the armor of god comments,,, all of that will make him a fringe candidate for most people.
“His silliness in the pulpit, the laying on of hands, the armor of god comments,,, all of that will make him a fringe candidate for most people.”
Notice how the media hasn’t attacked any of this. Notice how they don’t attack Cruz at all. (NE is the exception.)
Right.....
Consider this... If you where a delegate and you strongly supported Trump, is there any power in heaven or on earth that could convince you to vote for JEB?
Well most of the delegates are most likely Cruz people... Don’t see anything convincing any of them to vote for JEB.
McCain is tanned, rested and ready!
Are you for real? You are going back to a FEBRUARY 1, 2016 poll?
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha haha ha ha ha
I daresay those results would have been dead on IF Trump had not shot himself in the foot. Then reloaded. Then shot himself in the other foot with his idiot flip-flop last week on abortion.
Not really sure if it matters to the Republicans...either way they keep their closed party closed. They aren’t really concerned with beating Hillary, the game goes on and the trough is still the trough if any of the status quo wins.
And the added benefit is if they put Cruz up and he gets shellacked, they never have to give him the time of day again. Ever. All wins for the closed two party system of ruling the people.
Cruz thinks most of the delegates are cruz people, they are not, they are establishment people
big difference
Silver’s reliability record in primaries are all over the place. He gives weight for endorsements. Believe you me Scott Walker’s endorsement of Cruz will not help him outside Wisconsin.
February is too far back for you? Huh? You made a silly claim about his track record. There it is. Nate’s powers of prediction are overrated.
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