Posted on 03/31/2016 7:42:11 PM PDT by Trump20162020
Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are headed to a photo finish in Wisconsin next Tuesday according to the latest poll numbers, which show the Texas senator ahead of the New York billionaire by just a single percentage point.
Public Policy Polling, a left-leaning firm, surveyed likely voters in the Badger State and found Cruz leading the Republican primary contest with 38 per cent, compared with Trump's 37.
The dramatically different results could be explained by sample sizes: Marquette's pollsters interviewed 471 likely Republican primary voters, while Public Policy Polling surveyed 768.
They could also reflect quickly shifting political winds in Wisconsin, seasoned with a series of Trump rallies that tend to create unpredictable news cycles.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Trump needs to only win 18 delegates from Wisconsin to stay on target to get to 1,237 whereas Cruz needs 33. Cruz has only won only 52% of his target allocation. He is behind by A LOT. Once it becomes mathematically impossible for Cruz to get to 1,237 he should drop out just as he has called for Kasich to do. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
Wouldn’t it be absolutely wild if he won???
I think it seems the @NeverTRUMP Establishment/media seriously needs Wisconsin to show they are even viable.
Probably Wisconsin is the trial run for the STOP TRUMP effort to kill that coming 8 State/1237 delegate Convention threshold.
TRUMP has exposed the whole smelly party system that keep all viable threats from citizen candidates outside of Washington, DC lawyers.
They survive in DC with a Hillary presidency, so no wonder they want to dump TRUMP. Heck, it’s a compliment to the man that he has brought the Establishment to heel as he has, to the point they must support their despised colleague Cruz to even have a prayer at stopping him.
Lyin’ Ted. Snake in the grass.
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE |
Cruz
|
Trump
|
Kasich
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 3/19 - 3/30 | -- | -- | 36.5 | 32.7 | 21.0 | Cruz +3.8 |
| FOX BusinessFOX Business | 3/28 - 3/30 | 742 LV | 3.5 | 42 | 32 | 19 | Cruz +10 |
| PPP (D)*PPP (D)* | 3/28 - 3/29 | 768 LV | 3.5 | 38 | 37 | 17 | Cruz +1 |
| MarquetteMarquette | 3/24 - 3/28 | 471 LV | 5.8 | 40 | 30 | 21 | Cruz +10 |
| 0ptimus (R)*0ptimus (R)* | 3/22 - 3/24 | 6182 LV | 1.1 | 27 | 31 | 29 | Trump +2 |
| EmersonEmerson | 3/20 - 3/22 | 439 LV | 4.6 | 36 | 35 | 19 | Cruz +1 |
| Free Beacon (R)Free Beacon (R) | 3/19 - 3/20 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 36 | 31 | 21 | Cruz +5 |
+1
The dramatically different results could be explained by sample sizes: Marquette's pollsters interviewed 471 likely Republican primary voters, while Public Policy Polling surveyed 768.
That entire group [or crossover Democrats] is invisible in a poll that excludes Democrats, as both the Marquette and PPP surveys did.
Wisconsin's primary is an 'open' one, meaning the Republican contest is not limited to only registered Republican voters. Trump has performed markedly better in open-primary states than in those with closed elections.
” Hi nooob. Which PAC is paying for you to join us? “
****
WELCOME ABOARD THE TRUMP TRAIN, 20162020!
The PAC that has given TRUMP the overwhelming vote of the people, come rain or shine, ups and downs, the people have found just the guy who has banished the Establishment— TRUMP.
How ‘bout your guy? Has he drawn the crowds and swelled the R Party with the largest migration of Democrats and Independents into the Republican line, EVER? TRUMP has done it. Check your guy. He has a few Republicans and that’s pretty much it. One and done, in the general.
GO TRUMP!
Read my post #27
Truth will set you free
Trump needs to only win 18 delegates from Wisconsin to stay on target to get to 1,237 whereas Cruz needs 33. Cruz has only won only 52% of his target allocation. He is behind by A LOT. Once it becomes mathematically impossible for Cruz to get to 1,237 he should drop out just as he has called for Kasich to do. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
I thought WI was winner take all, no?
Just because a member is new, it doesn’t mean they are a paid supporter of someone. I just joined recently, but my mother has read this site for many years, and I finally started too. I decided to join to participate in the interesting discussions I have found and the passion behind this primary election season...but I sure wish I was getting paid for this :)
Why not? You guys wag your polls in the air as if the Allies just took Germany.
Good news!
“thought WI was winner take all, no?”
there are 3 delegates per congressional district ..if Trump loses the state but wins 4 districts, he gets 12
+1
Exactly, Cruz must win Wisconsin big to stay viable, Trump can shrug it off as he will get districts in the northern part of the state anyways, as that’s where his largest support is located. Trump is the only anti establishment candidate left.
The only one left who Mitt Romney hasn’t tried to help too. That should tell you something right there...Romney supported Rubio, Kasich and now Cruz.
Okay, spare me the numerical masturbation. (I can say that without someone falling down in a dead faint, can’t I?)
I’ll make you a bet (my six-pack of Red Lodge Czech Mate Pilsner against any similar quantity of a beer of your choice) that NONE of the polls that you’ve quoted here are within five points of the actual results next week. Either way.
Yeah, I’m making a WAG. Actually, I’m so bored with this dance-around-the-maypole I could spit and maybe it’s time to liven this deal up.
Only proviso I’m making is you better not send me any Grain Belt when I win. I’ve already “experienced” that stuff.
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