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Donald Trump has collapsed in general election polls
vox.com ^ | March 31, 2016 | Andrew Prokop

Posted on 03/31/2016 11:58:17 AM PDT by John W

Donald Trump loves to brag that he's ahead of Hillary Clinton in the polls. "I beat Hillary Clinton in many polls," he repeatedly insisted at a debate earlier this month.

Here on planet Earth, that isn't true or even close to true. In 33 general election polls tracked by HuffPost Pollster over the past two months, Trump has led Clinton in just one.

Trump now trails Clinton by 9 points in the HuffPost Pollster polling average and by 11.2 points in RealClearPolitics' average — and he's behind Bernie Sanders by even more in both. Any of these showings from Trump would be the weakest performance from a major party nominee in the past 20 years.

The trendlines for the billionaire are terrible too. Back during the waning months of 2015, he regularly came within a few points of both Clinton and Sanders. But historically, polls conducted so far in advance have been essentially meaningless.

Crucially, Trump's decline has happened just when these polls actually start to mean something. In newer polls, Trump almost never comes close to either Clinton or Sanders anymore. And in past races, changes in general election polling that have occurred during this period of the campaign have often ended up sticking.

"Were this a few months ago, I'd say, 'What's the big deal?'" says Christopher Wlezien, a political science professor at the University of Texas. "But polls today are much more meaningful than they were 90 days ago. And the polls today are much less favorable for Trump."

(Excerpt) Read more at vox.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
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1 posted on 03/31/2016 11:58:17 AM PDT by John W
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To: John W

Oh well then. I guess we don’t need to bother with an election.


2 posted on 03/31/2016 11:59:10 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it." --Samuel Clemens)
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To: John W

Only polls showing trump winning are accepted by trump supporters.


3 posted on 03/31/2016 11:59:40 AM PDT by cableguymn (We need a redneck in the white house....)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Oh Noes! Trump is done!

4 posted on 03/31/2016 12:00:07 PM PDT by SubMareener (Save us from Quarterly Freepathons! Become a MONTHLY DONOR!)
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To: John W

HuffPo Poll. Yep, out of all the invalid polls, which all are, the HuffPo Poll is near the top of the list of most odious.


5 posted on 03/31/2016 12:00:19 PM PDT by Hostage (ARTICLE V)
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To: John W

Vox quoting an RCP poll? Lol. Sure.


6 posted on 03/31/2016 12:00:34 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (...)
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To: John W

You wish


7 posted on 03/31/2016 12:00:48 PM PDT by angcat (TRUMP!)
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To: John W

One thing Trump has going for him if he is the Nominee..

Sanders won’t be the one he has to compete with.


8 posted on 03/31/2016 12:00:54 PM PDT by cableguymn (We need a redneck in the white house....)
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To: John W

I wouldn’t be overly concerned about polls this far out, except that Trump has completely botched the past two months. He has utterly alienated everyone and has done his best to give everyone ammo to use against him. He’s also shown a complete lack of depth of knowledge on issue after issue. His core support is strong, but the rest has cratered. Not too optimistic, especially when the Clinton machine ramps up.


9 posted on 03/31/2016 12:01:34 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: John W

Take a look at RCP averages: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Trump is +10.4 average over seven current polls.


10 posted on 03/31/2016 12:01:46 PM PDT by vette6387 (Obama can go to hell!)
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To: John W
9 points? That's nothing, especially considering the huge enthusiasm gap.

That's actually great news for Donald Trump.

But let's not get in the way of a propaganda campaign...

11 posted on 03/31/2016 12:02:21 PM PDT by sargon ("No king but Christ!")
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To: John W
I reckon the poll next Tuesday will give us some idea of what folks think of Donald Trump and what folks think of lyin cheatin illegal cruz the snake.

Do you get the idea that I think cruz is pond scum? It's worse than that.

12 posted on 03/31/2016 12:02:35 PM PDT by The_Republic_Of_Maine (politicians beware)
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To: John W

Let’s wait until about September, when Trump will be giving the American public an education on Hillary, hitting her with everything from Whitewater to Vince Foster to Benghazi. We’ll see how the polls look then.


13 posted on 03/31/2016 12:03:26 PM PDT by Rennes Templar (President Trump: It's all over but the counting)
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To: John W

Vox? I find better news in my toilet.

Recent headlines from Vox:

Donald Trump’s rise is a scary moment in America

The rise of American authoritarianism

Hillary Clinton wants to end the loophole that lets disabled workers earn less than minimum wage

Everyone — even pro-lifers — hated Donald Trump’s abortion comments

Trump’s comments on Japanese nukes are worrisome — even by Trump standards


14 posted on 03/31/2016 12:03:30 PM PDT by proust (Texans for Trump!)
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To: John W

I seem to remember reading that Reagan trailed Carter at this point by about 25 points. How did that work out for the dems, who had actually opened champagne when Reagan got the nomination.


15 posted on 03/31/2016 12:03:30 PM PDT by euram
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To: vette6387

I think these polls are referring to his steady erosion nationally, losing badly to Clinton in the general, rather than relative to his primary opponents.


16 posted on 03/31/2016 12:03:33 PM PDT by babble-on
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To: Hostage

HuffPo Poll. Yep, out of all the invalid polls, which all are, the HuffPo Poll is near the top of the list of most odious.

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I gather we were not seeing a huffpo poll at all, if the article is accurate, we are seeing the results of the polls that huffpo tracks.

Some of which have been loved by Trump supporters, as long as they were showing donald on top.

Now they are all crap.


17 posted on 03/31/2016 12:03:55 PM PDT by dmz
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To: Rennes Templar

Watch the press coverage of Trump dry up at that point. He will need a shortwave radio or maybe buy a network.


18 posted on 03/31/2016 12:04:58 PM PDT by Resolute Conservative
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To: vette6387

Oh, but we should pay attention to some HuffPoo concern troll junk instead of RCP! /SARC


19 posted on 03/31/2016 12:05:12 PM PDT by piytar (http://www.truthrevolt.org/videos/bill-whittle-number-one-bullete)
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To: Hostage

Hee hee...not to mention they quote a TU prof, on this stink piece. (Univ of TX is one of the most lib colleges there is.)


20 posted on 03/31/2016 12:05:20 PM PDT by Jane Long (Go Trump, go! Make America Safe Again :)
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