Posted on 03/31/2016 11:58:17 AM PDT by John W
Donald Trump loves to brag that he's ahead of Hillary Clinton in the polls. "I beat Hillary Clinton in many polls," he repeatedly insisted at a debate earlier this month.
Here on planet Earth, that isn't true or even close to true. In 33 general election polls tracked by HuffPost Pollster over the past two months, Trump has led Clinton in just one.
Trump now trails Clinton by 9 points in the HuffPost Pollster polling average and by 11.2 points in RealClearPolitics' average — and he's behind Bernie Sanders by even more in both. Any of these showings from Trump would be the weakest performance from a major party nominee in the past 20 years.
The trendlines for the billionaire are terrible too. Back during the waning months of 2015, he regularly came within a few points of both Clinton and Sanders. But historically, polls conducted so far in advance have been essentially meaningless.
Crucially, Trump's decline has happened just when these polls actually start to mean something. In newer polls, Trump almost never comes close to either Clinton or Sanders anymore. And in past races, changes in general election polling that have occurred during this period of the campaign have often ended up sticking.
"Were this a few months ago, I'd say, 'What's the big deal?'" says Christopher Wlezien, a political science professor at the University of Texas. "But polls today are much more meaningful than they were 90 days ago. And the polls today are much less favorable for Trump."
(Excerpt) Read more at vox.com ...
I am a Cruz supporter, and I already voted for him in the primary. I continue to support him, but I will vote for Trump if he should end up winning the nomination.
It is the only way to insure that Hillary winds up in Jail where she belongs. (And maybe Bill too if we are lucky.)
Yes. Everybody wants to focus on Republican problems. Hillary is facing, what was supposed to be the equivalent of dog poop on the bottom of your sneakers. Token opposition from a seventy year old avowed socialist with a New Yawk accent. Just enough to make it look like a contest. And she is having PROBLEMS. The republicans should be able to beat HRC if they put up Peewee Herman with stains on his pants against her. I mean, if they cannot beat her, then it really is time to fold up the tent.
Oh yeah it was. They called for the poll, they ordered it, they own it.
It’s a HuffPo Poll.
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Must be those internal polls he claims he doesn’t use even though he has retained a polling firm :)
Trump is +10.4 average over seven current polls.
People need to understand that polling just those voting in the republican primaries, and all of those voting in the general election are two, completely separate sample groups.
Yes, Virginia, it is possible for Trump to lead in the republican polls and trail in the general polls.
Ref:”I wouldn’t be overly concerned about polls this far out, except that Trump has completely botched the past two months. He has utterly alienated everyone and has done his best to give everyone ammo to use against him. He’s also shown a complete lack of depth of knowledge on issue after issue. His core support is strong, but the rest has cratered. Not too optimistic, especially when the Clinton machine ramps up.”
ilgiper, that’s a lot of great analysis packed into five short sentences....
Those are Republican primary polls, the topic of the story is general election polls.
“”Oh yeah it was. They called for the poll, they ordered it, they own it. It’s a HuffPo Poll.””
I think you need to bone up on your reading comprehension ...
> “Trump now trails Clinton by 9 points in the HuffPost Pollster ....”
Yep.
And who was the HuffPo Pollster? It was the ultra-liberal TU, ordered by HuffPo. HuffPo owns it, it’s their property, their poll.
“We live in a country where Obama has a favorable job rating.”
You probably believe the umemployment rate too.
Besides schlonging Hillary in the press, by next November, I think Trump will bring over blue-collar Dems, independents, long-inactive republican voters, Cruz-Trump voters, more women and more minorities.
I think he will crush Hillary.
Carter was dropping like a lead balloon by convention time. The organizers of the DEM (according to the media) asked delegates not to “Boo” when Carter came to the mike to give his acceptance speech. After Reagan’s acceptance speech Reagan’s stock rose and he pulled ahead of Clinton and never looked back.
I see you used selective editing to try to prove your false point!
"Trump now trails Clinton by 9 points in the HuffPost Pollster polling average.
“And who was the HuffPo Pollster? It was the ultra-liberal TU, ordered by HuffPo. HuffPo owns it, it’s their property, their poll.”
“From our founding in 2006, HuffPost Pollster (originally Pollster.com) has aimed to report the results of every public poll that claims to provide a representative sample of the population or electorate. Our criteria have always been expansive — we have included polls of varying methodology, including automated, recorded voice telephone polls and online surveys using non-probability internet samples.”
Cruzperados, why don’t you come to your senses.
Yeah, it’s their average. So what? It’s their statistic. It’s their invalid statistic.
All polls are invalid because the sample is never carried according to the sampling plan. That’s because 90% of the targeted sample either are not home or hangup.
The reason that Trump appears at the top of most polls is because 100 million Americans are sitting on their behinds out of work and they will normally hangup unless it’s for a poll that asks them about Trump.
The reason that Hillary Queen of Scumbags is topping Trump is because the welfare queens are picking up.
And all that will change soon.
HuffPo is a homosexual bed of perversion that will put out any sh*t their readers are willing to lay their eyes on. Their ‘polls’ are worse than all the other worthless polls.
“Donald Trump has collapsed in general election polls.”
That settles it. No need to hold an election. We can all go home.
Anyone who reads or places stock in general election polls at this point in time is an idiot, for any number of reasons. A lot of us remember the same polling at the same time with Reagan and Carter.
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