Now only Donald Trump has a viable path to 1.237 delegates

HERE ON FR | March 23, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

AFTER MARCH 22ND, ONLY DONALD TRUMP
has a viable path to winning the nomination through the Primary Process

Some people are saying that the Utah caucuses were fraudulent.

I do not believe they were. They were caucuses...and Cruz has always had a better ground game in most of the caucus states.

On the other hand, Trump has typically not done as well in Caucus states.

But in the end, Utah will not matter. Here's why:

Even though Trump has lost several primaries with relatively low percentages, overall Trump is still winning big time.

• Kasich won 1 contest
• Rubio won 3 contests
• Cruz has won 10 contests
• Trump has won 20 contests

So, for every "one" of the ten victories Ted likes to talk about stringing together, Trump can show two victories to every one of Ted's.

Folks, these are simply the facts.

Last night Trump took AZ and all 58 delegates, and so despite losing the 40 delegates in UT, he still increased his delegate lead by another 18 delegates, which means he now has 741 delegates and is almost 300 delegates in the lead.

So, while UT was a big win for Cruz, it was not any kind of fatal blow to Trump...and despite it, for the night, Trump continued to increase his lead.

And here's the clincher that nobody seems to be focusing on.

Cruz HAD to win AZ last night in order to have any viable path to the total delegates needed for the nomination.

But he lost AZ.

So, Ted right now is at 461 delgates. He needs another 775 to get to the 1,237 number.

But there are only 763 delegates left to win.

As of last night, Cruz CANNOT win enough delegates through the primary/caucus voting to win the nomination.

Trump, on the other hand, only needs 496 of the remaining 763 to clinch. That means he needs about 2/3rds of the remaining delgates.

It's not a sure thing, but I believe he most definitely can do it.

Let's do a little math and look at one path.

One Trump Path to the nomination:

Let's say Trump wins all of NY (95), and then these winner take all states: MT (27), SD (29), NE (36), and NJ (51).

Then let's say he wins 140 of the 172 in CA (and he may take them all). All of that gives him 378 delegates.

Let's say he wins 60% or RI (19) CT (28) and DE (16). That would be 37 delegates there.

Then proportionally, let's say he under performs and only wins 40% of the delegates in IN (57), WI (42), WA (44), WV (34) OR (28), NB (36) and NM (24). That's 102 delegates.

All of that, for those remaining 16 states, would give Trump another 502 delegates. Add that to his 741 and you end up with 1,249 delegates and he is over the top.

IMHO, this is a somewhat pessimistic forecast of what Trump might do.

Either way, it clearly shows that Trump has a viable and realistic path of sewing up the delegates and nomination before the convention.

In fact, as of last night, he is the only one who can.

---

Summary:

Finally, the GOPe may seem to be willing to back Cruz right now. But they are only doing so to try and deny Trump the nomination.

If they can successfully deny Trump the delegates, they will turn on Cruz in a heartbeat and in a brokered convention seek to throw him to the curb and bring in a GOPe approved candidate...and say to hell with what the people wanted.

And they will not care that they defy the voters and destroy any chance to win in the fall. This whole cycle has revealed that about the GOPe, which many of us suspected, but which they are now revealing in spades.

Ted Cruz is the man who can stop this.

I repeat my appeal to Ted Cruz, who has been my first choice throughout the primaries.

My Open Letter to Ted Cruz
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410747/posts

Senator Cruz, DO NOT Allows the GOPe to co-opt you and your campaign.

As soon as your and Trump's combined total of delegates surpasses the 12,37 number, endorse Trump and throw in with him.

By so doing you will:

Unite the GOP behind Donald Trump and yourself, the two anti-GOPe candidates who have won an absolute majority of the vote and the delegates.
• Deal a much deserved body slam blow to the GOPe...which is exactly what the people are voting to do.
• Create a ticket that will absolutely destroy Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November.
• Create an administration that can restore American greatness and quality.
• Create a potential for 16 years of principled, all-American leadership of the United States, and in the world

I hope and pray Cruz will make the right decision.

As I say, in the end, it very well may be that Trump can win any way.

But how much better it would be if he was able to do so resoundingly and in the process, unite the party despite the best efforts to the contrary of the GOPe.

[Eccl 10:2]

An interesting but poorly executed analysis at 538 predicts Trump to end at 1208, short of 1237.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-important-states-on-trumps-path-to-1237-delegates/

But they short-change him “big league” in NY, (by at least 10), PA (by at least 30), and CA (by at least 10). Who knows where else they hose him?

Trump should end up comfortably over 1237. Let’s not get all wobbly. The Uniparty and the media are using every trick and illusion to make Trump look beatable. He’s not. IMHO. LOL.

[tet68]

I heard Hillary! was deep in Mary Anna’s trench...

Thank you, I’ll be here all week.

[marron]

I think the idea was to make the offer when, between the two of them, they have 1237. That would be soon, they are almost there...

Although, it would also depend on what Cruz’s polls are telling him in New York and California.

As you say, if Trump doesn’t need his delegates, he has no leverage. That is the poker-game aspect of it. His leverage goes up the more delegates he has, unless Trump puts it together another way in which case he has no leverage at all numerically. Of course both men have some leverage even at the end, since the winner needs his opponent’s partisans to willingly give their support. To get that he almost needs his opponent’s public blessing. That would be true whichever man comes out on top.

Its more true if Cruz comes out on top. If Trump wins, having more delegates, the “losers” can fall in line without much heartburn. If Cruz comes out on top by forming a coalition, there will be hard feelings that might prevent Trump supporters from willingly supporting him. In that case, even if Cruz has the votes, Trump has almost a veto power since without his blessing a significant number of his supporters might simply sit it out, which would doom Cruz’s campaign for November.

This is why, though I prefer Cruz, I can’t see how he overcomes this hurdle. I think its Trump or Trump.

[enumerated]

That’s not the way I read it. True, some people are quoted as saying the system gives primary voters a choice, because they can elect the delegates who promise to vote for their preferred candidate. The problem with that theory is that when the delegates are elected there is no information about which candidate they would vote for at the convention.

I am pretty sure that when the PA primary results are known, only the 17 bound delegates will be awarded. The other 54 will remain truly unbound, and free to vote for whomever they wish at the convention. These 54 will not count toward the 1237 benchmark.

As I have said, they may feel pressure to vote for Trump if he was the clear winner of the state. I hope so.

[Velvet_Jones]

Ok, that makes sense. I would have been ok with either guy, or any number of others like Walker, Paul, or even Jindal. But I think we’re reaching a point where it’s for the benefit of everyone if we start to coalesce behind the nominee now and go after Hillary.

That’s why I find the hardcore Cruz people so misguided. They’re clearly aiming for a brokered convention, which guarantees a Hillary presidency. I really think Cruz is getting advice from a number of people who aren’t interested in what’s best for the country, the Republican Party, or even Cruz. They’re using him to advance their agenda (I.e. Bush, Graham, etc)

[Ingtar]

Delegates allocated by the process so far: 1596

Trump delegates: 755 (I think the 1 difference is a shift in Missouri allocation)

47.31%

[Political Junkie Too]

My head's in Mississippi.
-ZZ Top

-PJ

[TexPEyeMan]

You say there are 763 delegates left. I might be missing something but my count is 944. Can you explain how you get to 763?

[Jim W N]

Maybe so with PA. So complicated.

Anyway it seems clear from the RCP notes that the delegates from CO and WY can choose to be bound or unbound.

“Colorado1, Wyoming1
Delegates in Colorado are selected through a process that starts with the March 1st caucuses and culminates at the state convention on April 9th. Colorado Delegates can go to the national convention as unbound or bound to a candidate. The Wyoming precinct caucuses on March 1st do not bind any delegates, but they start a delegate selection process that culminates at the state convention on April 14-16. Delegates from Wyoming can be bound or unbound.”

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html

[Jim W N]

1596 - your allocated delegates
1361 - my allocated delegates
235 - difference.

My 1361 allocated delegates come from FQH as of 3/22/16:
463 Cruz
144 Kasich
754 Trump
31 Uncommitted
4 Bush
9 Carson
1 Fiorina
1 Huckabee
1 Paul
167 Rubio
1361 Total Allocated
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2016-republican.html

[TEXOKIE]

Thanks for the info. That was what I thought would be the case.

[TEXOKIE]

“Wisconsin is an open primary state. Trump has won 100% of those states except Cruz’s home state, and Trump is leading in the polls for the state.”

I do certainly hope this might be case! but Freeper John Valentine has older data that may diminish my optimism!

I guess the best thing I can do for my peace of mind is just hold vigil for our nation and hope that our Father really DOES (as I believe) have control everything and I don’t have to worry! But this roller ride is not an easy one! LOL!

[diamond6]

Your figures are WRONG.

There are currently 944 delegates still left.

Cruz needs 772 out of 944, which is 82%

Trump needs 498 out of 944, which is 53%.

[diamond6]

Sorry, the fat lady has not sung yet.

[arnoldknox]

This guys numbers are erroneous. Whether intentional or not, there are actually still 944 delegates remaining in the upcoming states. So, more than enough to drag the race out into June. Cruz and Trump are both still in this thing.

[arnoldknox]

Actually 944. Not sure where the author got his info, but... http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker

[arnoldknox]

There are actually still 944 delegates remaining. http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker

[Tammy8]

Mormons in Utah do vote in lock-step, the closer to SLC the more they listen to their leaders. Mormons are also open border people so they were not going to support Trump before all the hoop-la from Beck and Romney.

[Kit cat]

Jeff Trump WILL have the delegates in hand at the convention!!! I just am astounded at all of this hype about contested convention!!! Romney had less delegates at this time in 2012 and not a peep about contested convention!!! This conversation and bickering is just ridiculous Trump WILL have the delegates!!!

[diamond6]

“Romney had less delegates at this time in 2012 and not a peep about contested convention!!!”

Romney didn’t have Cruz nipping at his heeels.