Now only Donald Trump has a viable path to 1.237 delegates

HERE ON FR | March 23, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

AFTER MARCH 22ND, ONLY DONALD TRUMP
has a viable path to winning the nomination through the Primary Process

Some people are saying that the Utah caucuses were fraudulent.

I do not believe they were. They were caucuses...and Cruz has always had a better ground game in most of the caucus states.

On the other hand, Trump has typically not done as well in Caucus states.

But in the end, Utah will not matter. Here's why:

Even though Trump has lost several primaries with relatively low percentages, overall Trump is still winning big time.

• Kasich won 1 contest
• Rubio won 3 contests
• Cruz has won 10 contests
• Trump has won 20 contests

So, for every "one" of the ten victories Ted likes to talk about stringing together, Trump can show two victories to every one of Ted's.

Folks, these are simply the facts.

Last night Trump took AZ and all 58 delegates, and so despite losing the 40 delegates in UT, he still increased his delegate lead by another 18 delegates, which means he now has 741 delegates and is almost 300 delegates in the lead.

So, while UT was a big win for Cruz, it was not any kind of fatal blow to Trump...and despite it, for the night, Trump continued to increase his lead.

And here's the clincher that nobody seems to be focusing on.

Cruz HAD to win AZ last night in order to have any viable path to the total delegates needed for the nomination.

But he lost AZ.

So, Ted right now is at 461 delgates. He needs another 775 to get to the 1,237 number.

But there are only 763 delegates left to win.

As of last night, Cruz CANNOT win enough delegates through the primary/caucus voting to win the nomination.

Trump, on the other hand, only needs 496 of the remaining 763 to clinch. That means he needs about 2/3rds of the remaining delgates.

It's not a sure thing, but I believe he most definitely can do it.

Let's do a little math and look at one path.

One Trump Path to the nomination:

Let's say Trump wins all of NY (95), and then these winner take all states: MT (27), SD (29), NE (36), and NJ (51).

Then let's say he wins 140 of the 172 in CA (and he may take them all). All of that gives him 378 delegates.

Let's say he wins 60% or RI (19) CT (28) and DE (16). That would be 37 delegates there.

Then proportionally, let's say he under performs and only wins 40% of the delegates in IN (57), WI (42), WA (44), WV (34) OR (28), NB (36) and NM (24). That's 102 delegates.

All of that, for those remaining 16 states, would give Trump another 502 delegates. Add that to his 741 and you end up with 1,249 delegates and he is over the top.

IMHO, this is a somewhat pessimistic forecast of what Trump might do.

Either way, it clearly shows that Trump has a viable and realistic path of sewing up the delegates and nomination before the convention.

In fact, as of last night, he is the only one who can.

---

Summary:

Finally, the GOPe may seem to be willing to back Cruz right now. But they are only doing so to try and deny Trump the nomination.

If they can successfully deny Trump the delegates, they will turn on Cruz in a heartbeat and in a brokered convention seek to throw him to the curb and bring in a GOPe approved candidate...and say to hell with what the people wanted.

And they will not care that they defy the voters and destroy any chance to win in the fall. This whole cycle has revealed that about the GOPe, which many of us suspected, but which they are now revealing in spades.

Ted Cruz is the man who can stop this.

I repeat my appeal to Ted Cruz, who has been my first choice throughout the primaries.

My Open Letter to Ted Cruz
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410747/posts

Senator Cruz, DO NOT Allows the GOPe to co-opt you and your campaign.

As soon as your and Trump's combined total of delegates surpasses the 12,37 number, endorse Trump and throw in with him.

By so doing you will:

Unite the GOP behind Donald Trump and yourself, the two anti-GOPe candidates who have won an absolute majority of the vote and the delegates.
• Deal a much deserved body slam blow to the GOPe...which is exactly what the people are voting to do.
• Create a ticket that will absolutely destroy Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November.
• Create an administration that can restore American greatness and quality.
• Create a potential for 16 years of principled, all-American leadership of the United States, and in the world

I hope and pray Cruz will make the right decision.

As I say, in the end, it very well may be that Trump can win any way.

But how much better it would be if he was able to do so resoundingly and in the process, unite the party despite the best efforts to the contrary of the GOPe.

[Psalm 144]

He is confirming my low opinion of him then.

[Hang'emAll]

Bump for later

[Ingtar]

Actually, Trump has 47.3% of the delegates so far. He got 54.2% of the delegates at stake yesterday, almost the 55+% he needs of the remaining total. Cruz fell far short of the 88+% he needs, but within the margin to throw it to a contested convention. Still, I’m laughing over Kasich finishing fourth in a three man race in Arizona.

[Red Steel]

Wisconsin is an open primary state. Trump has won 100% of those states except Cruz’s home state, and Trump is leading in the polls for the state.

[TomGuy]

Numbers based on the current allocations at Thegreenpapers.com

‘hard’ delegates

Trump 752
Cruz 463
Kasich 144

That puts Trump 289 ahead of Cruz with 893 delegates available in remaining states.

Trump needs 485 of those of those 893.
Cruz needs 774 of those 893.

Kasich is numberically out of the race, as he needs 1093 delegates with only 893 remaining. He is short by 200 delegates, even if he wins 100% of all remaining states/delegates.

[Political Junkie Too]

But if needs others to drop out to win then he is not a winner in my book.

Isn't that what Cruz would be doing if he needs to trust that the GOPe won't backstab him in a round 2 vote in order to win?

It's not that Trump "needs" others to drop out in order to win, although keeping others from sucking up delegates always helps. It's when they cannot win outright but still insist on sucking up the delegates anyway that is the problem. It is the problem with Kasich, and is now the problem with Cruz.

Do you really believe the GOPe will back Cruz in a floor fight? I don't. I think they'll thank him and then turn on him to save themselves. So the question for Cruz is whether he really believes in the outsider movement against the Washington establishment, and is he ready to make the sacrifice to save it?

-PJ

[huldah1776]

DT doesn’t need to be told to say anything over and over since that is all he does (if it’s about himself or his polls) so have no worries about that. As for the wife ad, Cruz should have denounced it but it wasn’t approved by him nor created by his team.

[Nifster]

So Ted Cruz is just like John Kasich. Tired politician with too much ego to get out

[Jim W N]

As of 3/22/16, % Committed Delegates for Trump:

1361 Committed delegates
754 Trump delegates to date
55% % committed delegates for Trump

How are you getting 47.3%?

[enumerated]

I think when they talk about how many delegates remain available they don’t include unbound delegates. For example, your list has 71 available for PA, but 54 are unbound. That means they are not available for purposes of reaching 1237 before the convention, regardless of who wins the state. North Dakota has 28 unbound - same deal. This is why some calculations show 839 remaining and others show only 763.

However, I happen to think that if Trump wins a strong plurality, say 1180, but not the 1237 majority, the unbound delegates from states that Trump won would be under enormous pressure to pledge themselves to Trump on the second ballot, especially if he had won those states convincingly.

Remember, the delegates have to go home and face the voters in their state, who would be very angry with any delegates who voted differently than the state voted.

This is why even if Trump falls a bit short of the 1237 going into the convention, he may still clinch it on the second or third ballot.

Pundits like to talk about a brokered or contested convention because it would be exciting and great for ratings, but the Republican Party has plenty of reasons to avoid that chaos and turmoil, and quickly resolve it in a way that ratifies the will of the people. I know they are known as the stupid party, but can they really be THAT stupid?

[TEXOKIE]

Re the issue of vote fraud in Utah: In the wee hours of the morning, I viewed this eye-witness report of shenanigans in Utah, at least in his/her own precinct, posted by M. Thatcher:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3412567/posts

(Note that I am not saying the eyewitness was a Freeper, which I thought at first! - bleary eyes you know!)

[Jim W N]

Looks like PA is not unbound from what I can see but it does look like ND is unbound.

RPC show PA as winner take all.

Also the Green Papers has this note:

Saturday 21 May 2016: Summer Meeting. The Pennsylvania Republican State Committee will meet to choose 14 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 4 bonus delegates) who are bound to the candidate who receives the most votes in the Pennsylvania Presidential Primary.

In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Pennsylvania’s Republican Party, will attend the convention as pledged delegates by virtue of their position.

[Velvet_Jones]

The problem with your solution is that if Cruz waits until Trump gets to (or close to) 1237, he’ll have no leverage at all to make a deal.

What’s he going to do, go to Trump and say “OK, you won the nomination. Let’s make a deal and you can have my 400 delegates you don’t need anymore?”

Cruz has a leverage peak somewhere, that will give him the most influence if he decides to end his campaign. I think it may have already passed, but I’m positive that by the time NY comes around he’ll be well onto the downslope of that curve.

If I were advising him, I’d say make a deal for a SCOTUS appointment. I think he’s getting really bad advice from all his new establishment friends though.

[Pirate Ragnar]

” Perhaps Trump will agree to be Cruz’s Vice President and their combined effort will carry the day.”

Cruz would never accept Trump as VP because Cruz is a principled Conservative. Trump is just a media hound, a narcissist and an opportunist.

[BlueNgold]

944 delegates remain available.

Ted will not likely be mathematically eliminated until after NY.

[enumerated]

I agree, there’s nothing wrong with a candidate staying in the race even after he can’t possibly reach 1237 majority. I don’t buy the logic that everyone is a spoiler except the frontrunner, and should bow out.

The reason they want a majority rather than a plurality is that with a bunch of candidates, a plurality could represent only a small slice of the electorate, leaving most citizens disenfranchised. By requiring a majority, the candidates are incentivized to broaden their appeal, to form a greater consensus.

I know that is difficult for some, who have a certain set of strong convictions and principles and who dream of finally electing a president who shares those convictions. But if only 15% of the people feel that way, it wouldn’t be fair to the other 85% to have to submit to such a small minority, even if it was a plurality.

If you have 17 candidates and require only a plurality, it is quite possibly the winner could have a plurality that is only 15%. This is why they require a majority. It forces candidates to build coalitions, and represent a broader base.

Trump (whom I support) should try to get the majority, either before the convention, or in the second or third ballot. Competing with Cruz and Kasich is part of that process and they shouldn’t feel obligated to drop out. They represent voting blocks that Trump needs to go after.

Go Trump!

[proudpapa]

If Trump falls short...he false short.

And after he insulted so many people hell have nobody to blame but himself if a better qualified candidate is chosen at the convention.

[mouse1]

Sorry Jeff. Cruz isn’t going anywhere. I’m speechless at the person he has become...or always was. The bloom is off the rose.

[mouse1]

Nothing all that anomalous since apparently Utahns vote in creepy lockstep. If anything, Cruz underperformed by only netting 69%.

and 69% is including the fraud

[mouse1]

I’m guessing they will try to shove Ryan thru. After all, he’s the speaker....even though he didn’t want the job. I’m sure he would agree to being president. Afterall, it’s for the Country.