Posted on 03/21/2016 10:19:26 PM PDT by Steelfish
Donald Trump Will (Almost Certainly) Never Be Elected President. Here’s Why.
By Greg Sargent March 21
With Donald Trump steamrolling towards the GOP nomination, the political chatter is increasingly focused on whether Trump could win a general election by making surprise inroads into states in the industrial Midwest. Many Democrats and nonpartisan observers see this as probably the only plausible (if that’s even the right word for it) path for Trump, who might do this mainly by running up huge numbers among white voters — particularly blue collar whites.
But a new examination of the demographics and projected voting patterns in some of the key Rust Belt states underscores just how unlikely this really is.
snip)
Given the overall margins that Obama won these states by — which are in some cases quite large — Trump would have to improve enormously on Romney’s performance among blue collar whites:
— In Michigan, where Romney beat Obama by 53-45 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 62-36, an improvement of 18 points.
— In Wisconsin, where Romney beat Obama by 50-48 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 56-42, an improvement of 12 points.
— In Pennsylvania, where Romney beat Obama by 56-42 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 63-36, an improvement of 13 points. — In Ohio, where Romney beat Obama by 57-41 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 60-38, an improvement of six points. (This is lower than the others because Ohio was much closer overall; but even six points is a pretty sizable improvement.)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
And if as current polls suggest, Trump goes down in flames.....?
Thanks for keeping the anti-Trump posts up. We are now down to less than 1 in 5 Freepers who still support Lyin’ Ted. How much fun would we have if we didn’t have the delusional minority still posting away?
If you want to understand the true contrast between Trump and Cruz watch the speeches both made to the AIPAC Convention today. It is eye opening to say the least. Trump delivered an incredible speech and connected with the audience. Ted was as petty as a cockroach by comparison and basically delivered a snoozer.
If Trump can deliver the same way in the general election he will have no problem defeating Hillary. I simply do not understand how he is able to keep it up day after day. He is over twenty years older than Cruz but he seems to have twice the energy level. And comparing him to Hillary is just laughable.
Trump speaks like a 4th grader. This speech was written for him and delivered via teleprompter.
He is double counting. A 6 point increase is said to be 12.
He ignores the fact that 1 point for trump is one less for Hillary.
So do I, and he’s not the only one.
She’s a third rate trial court judge. Yea, she’s “seen” the Donald just like those who invested their monies in Trump University or in the “Trump Shuttle,” or “The Taj Mahal” casino.
He appeals to most of the people I know. We don't like uppity a$$holes.
“And if as current polls suggest, Trump goes down in flames.....?”
Current polls? The ‘polls’ said the same thing about Reagan in March of 1980. We know how that turned out.
Emerson poll: Hillary tops Trump by 17, Sanders beats Trump by 19
+++++
LOL.
A low credibility poll, from a zero credibility poster.
But its not about “uppity” whatever.
It’s about a con artist, isn’t it?
You are correct. In fact, more Republicans have voted, as of this date, then have voted in the general election of 2012. And, we have 20 more primaries to go.
“...Teixeira assumes that the Democratic candidate (likely Hillary Clinton) will win the same share of the nonwhite and college educated white vote that Obama did, which, if anything, is generous to Trump.”
The fail of this analysis.
Demographics have changed from 25 years ago. The nation has changed as has the world. Today, Reagan may not win California 2016 where the “minority is the majority” state. Sad, but true.
No, that was some other Dick. ;0
“Trump wins only because of a fractured vote. One on one, Cruz cleans Trump clock.”
I still don’t see the logic here. Whether it’s 5, 4 or 3 candidates, what does it matter? Why can’t Cruze consistently win over Trump when all things are equal? It’s the same pool of voters for everyone of them.
We’ll, at least you need to be commended (unlike the rest of the Trumpkins) for making a salient point. But then again, Trump’s negatives are sky high, nearly 10-points higher than Hillary.
Whatever is going to happen, Trump is going to have to thread the needle....the current demographics are killing the GOP.
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