Posted on 03/18/2016 7:51:53 PM PDT by drewh
no story yet, he said that they have run the numbers and its going to be really tight since #TrumpTrain has to have over 50% in the rest of the contests
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
RNC rammed these new rules to get Jeb! elected, now they have been hoisted by their own petard.
I wonder if those numbers include the possible 8 delegates from Carson?
I just made my own simulator. I put the remaining states in a spread sheet along with their delegates. I’ll read the rules for each states and come up with numbers. Most of the states are Winner-Take-All and Winner-Take-Most. It was proportional until the 15th of March, but winners now get lion’s share of the delegates. Trump will comfortably win 600, and likely more, of the next 1003 delegates that are left, and anything after that will be extra gravy.
Their simulation started with the answer and they worked backwards.
If Trump is that close Carson can release the delegates to Trump!!!
Red Steel I am holding you to this!!! If you are not right I am coming after you, you best be sleeping with one eye open!!!LOL!!!
And here is why anyone who says that is an idiot - http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3410261/posts
Fox is blowing smoke up our rears here. It’s going to be much easier for Trump than they are letting on.
GOP elites are almost as bad as liberal elites... don’t trust them...
I’m usually right about these things. :-)
If it’s that close, he wont get it.
If they had led a fight against Democrats with the same enthusiasm they fight Trump, he wouldn’t be paddling their fannies.
Yup. They blew themselves up.
I am TOTALLY counting on you!!!
BOY have you got that right!!!!
Here you go. A simulation for the coming Tuesday primaries with 107 delegates to be won.
I’ll give Cruz Utah, but he gets under 50% and all three candidate get 15% or more. Cruz 45%, Trump 40% Kasich 15%. So therefore Cruz get 18 delegates, Trump 16 delegates, and Kasich 6 delegate for a total of 40 for Utah.
Trump will win Arizona so he gets all 58 delegates in the Winner-Take-All state.
And American Samoa goes like Northern Marianas Islands for Trump he gets all 9 AS delegates. ;-)
The overall totals:
Trump 83
Cruz 18
Kasich 6
Trump wins 77.57% of the delegates for the day.
It will be close to this or on the money, and well over the 50% that Trump has to win that silly Fox says in this article. :-)
That’s what I’m showing on a simple spread sheet. I show trump with a comfortable margin.
Also, Carson's delegates are now unbound, and there are 9 unbound delegates from the Virgin Islands for a total of 28. I have to believe Trump's people are on this.
I seriously doubt that any of these scenarios include any of these 31 delegates.
If the GOPe is smart it will stay as far away from Rule 40 as possible because only Trump qualifies. It would only call attention to the fact that no one else is eligible.
Trump has 696 delegates and he needs 541 of the remaining 983 to = 1,237. The percentage mark for Trump is 55% of the remaining delegates.
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