Posted on 03/17/2016 11:02:29 AM PDT by windhover
Here is "the" math "if": 1. Trump takes 53%,60% or 65% of remaining delegates from 21 states from 3/22 - 6/7; broken down by 11 Winner Take all States, with 597 delegates at stake. And: 2. 10 Proportionately Awarded states with 312 delegates.
Trump: 597 Winner Take All 312 Proportional Award
@53 @53% ---- ---- 316 Total Delegates 165 Total Delegates
316 Winner Take All 165 Proportional Award ---- 481 Total Delegates +673 Delegates Won Tru 3/15 OR: ---- 1,154 At 53% Remaining Delegates Total Delegates 597 +312 --- 909 Del. Left Winner Take All and Propor. @ 60% ---- 545 Total All Delegates +673 Won tru 3/15 ---- 1,218 Total Delegates at 60% OR: 909 Del. Left WTA/PA @65% ---- 590 Delegates left +673 Delegates won ---- 1,264 Total delegates @ 65%
I make no further judgments or prognostications except to say;an alliance of political enemies before the GOP convention would be really good insurance, no matter who you support. Even the best scenario will be close.
I have no agenda and will vote for either Trump or Cruz, and, like you, I have a preference; but this time everything is on the line. Please, for God's sake vote for one of them in the general election.
[The carnival barker is Trump. It’s obvious why he will avoid a debate with Cruz. He can’t win]
Ummm... Trump won every debate he’s been in.
Frankly I am tired of the debates, esp the Fox ones that don’t debate “substance”, and just through anti-Trump softballs for the loser candidates to swing at.
This last CNN one was the best of all election season, and Trump won that one HANDEDLY!!!
I have faith that Trump will upset that good ol’ boy system - which will help restructure how the Senate operates hence forth. They just want to be rid of someone that never was one of ‘them’.
[Trump supporters don’t have much faith in Trump and his advisors considering the time they spend confidently describing how the GOP-E is going to steal Donald’s obviously deserved prize.]
We have plenty of faith that Trump is the right person. I have ZERO faith in the GOPe acting fair and square and will try everything to ensure Trump isn’t the nominee.
But a brokered convention will result in an establishment candidate. Romney, Bush, Ryan, Graham, et al, are no Abraham Lincolns!
Cruz is good and if I thought he could win I would vote for him.
That’s just what we all need, another debate. How many do we have to go through (last count is 11?). All the candidates sound the same as every other debate. Nothing accomplished, Cruz loses them and Fox gets the ratings. Why bother?
“Most likely, Trump has already promised Christie the Atty General spot. Cruz will never leave his Senate seat to be his VP, but I have no doubt he would accept Tump picking him as his Supreme Court candidate to replace Scalia. I would be very happy with this outcome and I think most conservatives would support it. It’s a win-win!
The added benefit is our Texas Governor, Gregg Abbott, would pick a true conservative to finish Cruz’s Senate term. Thoughts?”
YES to all you’ve posted!
One scenario that people really aren’t talking about is that Cruz has a viable path to get more delegates than Trump.
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A very narrow path ...... “ a tightrope walk that has no margin for error”
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/16/politics/ted-cruz-plan-1237-nomination-fight/index.html
Delegates elected by the voters at local and state party caucuses (not GOPe) are the ones who’d have to find a solution at the convention if neither Trump nor Cruz has the requisite number of delegates. That’s the purpose of a convention.
So put yourself in those shoes. You’re an elected Trump delegate from your state. Trump doesn’t have the numbers to win on the first ballot. What do you do?
I was thinking Jan Brewer, but you’re closer to her out there. Don’t know how she’s regarded out west.
Trump already won four states Tuesday. He even beat Cruz in MO, a state Cruz should have won handily.
Trump people would love for Ted to roll over but that ain't happening.
Not till Trump gets his delegates, then he'll get Ted's support.
And not that this crowd would even want that support.
Trump's return fire was far less vile than the cruel, hyperbolic, purple prose of the pundits and the superior attitude and arrogance of the media and the politicians.
And I would like to point out the Romney never won a primary by as high a plurality as Trump has one, and Romney more than a few of the early primaries. As dishonest and dishonorable Romney destroyed each GOP candidate, the voters migrated toward the next in line and NEVER to Romney. Romney did not have enough delegates when he went to the convention but there was no talk then of a brokered convention then although about 80% of the base wanted would have preferred another candidate. Romney only had about 20% base support, probably Mormon and Scientologists.
When I look at how you Cruz people would inform us about how we knew nothing, I often wondered if you had been paying any attention at all in 2012, or maybe you just were not old enough.
No he has a smart brain he is his own advisors.
Well stated. Bravo!
It looks like he needs 82% of the remaining delegates.
If the other guy had won there might not have been a civil war.
The Senate might ratify his nomination to move him out of the Senate.
I hear his father closed his “purifying fire international ministry” and sells cassettes for around $60 and works/lives in an apartment in Dallas. He is also anointed as a “king” in the 7MD sect which believes all wealth will be taken from non believers and distributed by the “Kings” to “poor believers”. It is worth reading the articles. It helps one understand what makes Cruz tick.
It’s obvious why he will avoid a debate with Cruz. He doesn’t need to.
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