Posted on 03/14/2016 8:43:15 PM PDT by JediJones
...if Rubio and Kasich exit the race after March 15...Ted Cruz can beat out Donald Trump...
[Trump] has a very high floor of support because he has garnered more media attention than any candidate in the history of presidential politics. ...that same media attention has convinced almost every other Republican voter...to oppose him at all costs.
...had this battle been a two man race after Super Tuesday, Cruz would already be leading...
The March 15 Roadblock
Donald Trump could not ask for a more fortuitous situation in which the mixture of his challengers, their home states, and winner-take-all status all coalesce in his favor at the perfect time.
...by having Kasich and Rubio both lose their states and exit the race, Cruz will finally be able to go man-a-mano against Trump...
Now, what happens if Trump wins the 99 delegates in Florida, especially if he wins the 66 delegates in Ohio? Won’t this be the end of the race? Doesn’t Trump have it in the bag? This will be the narrative the fawning media tries to promulgate on the night of March 15. However...this scenario will actually lead to the downfall of Trump.
...even a more pessimistic spread...would likely result in Trump coming out of Super Tuesday 2.0 no more than 200 delegates ahead of Cruz.
...polls have consistently shown that Cruz would beat Trump head-to-head in almost every state...[Trump] has an impervious ceiling in the low 40s.
...[Cruz] would have a great path to winning a plurality and coming into a convention with the mandate...
...on June 8: Cruz 1239, Trump 987...roughly 250 for other candidates.
...all built upon the assumption that Kasich and Rubio leave the race.
...having Kasich (or even Rubio) stay in the race along with Cruz will also result in Trump missing the delegate majority...
(Excerpt) Read more at conservativereview.com ...
I actually saw a pretty convincing video explaining why Cruz has almost no mathematical chance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqpHTFJO4mE
Ted Cruz sides with leftist BLM mobs. After tomorrow, he’s finished.
This is stupid.
If it weren’t for Texas, Cruz would already be in Rubioland.
“.polls have consistently shown that Cruz would beat Trump head-to-head in almost every state..”
Where are those polls?
Pipe dream...
Same NBC/WSJ polls that said Cruz would win South Carolina. :D
This is all based on this dudes ridiculous assumption that Cruz wins NC, IL, and MO?
I could hit lotto tomorrow too. It is mathematically possible. I probably won’t. Cruz probably won’t either.
Will Texans remember in 2018 that their sitting Senator omitted mentioning he was Canadian when he ran in 2012?
I will.
Numbers are a bit one-sided for Cruz in place like California and Washington State. Of course it is unlikely that Trump wins all 95 delegates in New York based on the way delegates are assigned.
But the worst assumptions are in the winner-take-all states of Maryland and Pennsylvania. I think those go for Trump and, if so, that gives him 1,096 and Cruz 1,130 assuming all of the other numbers are correct.
There are some other numbers that don’t make sense like the calculation for North Carolina. He gives Cruz 36, but that would mean Cruz gets 50% of the vote in North Carolina tomorrow, highly unlikely.
If Trump loses Ohio tomorrow, every delegate becomes important. Trump would need to dominate in every race from here on to win the nomination outright. Cruz could mathematically win, but he would have an even narrower lane than Trump does.
But, at the end of the day, the establishment has no chance on a first ballot win. If Trump and Cruz both end up short, they HAVE to work together to make sure that there is no contested convention.
Cruz ending up with that 300 or so lead over Trump at the end is based on that. The author mentions in the article how Cruz has room to lose more than these predictions and still come out ahead of Trump into the convention.
More of the media every day is on board with the idea that we are heading to a contested convention one way or the other. Only the liberal media outlets are sometimes still pushing the idea that Trump is the inevitable nominee, because they are salivating at the idea of Hillary getting to run against such a weak opponent.
You sound like Loyd Christmas when Mary Swanson tells him the odds of her dating him are one in a million, and Loyd says “So you’re saying there’s a chance!”
I’m on board with the idea of Kasich winning Ohio as being BETTER for Trump. That means Kasich stays in with his “I don’t care about the math” mantra and helps hand states like Pennsylvania to Trump. We’ll keep seeing that 40-30-30-ish split with Trump on top. Kasich staying in would ensure that Trump has a lead over Cruz going into the RNC. Kasich doesn’t seem to understand the concept of winner-take-all states...which makes it hard to believe he really has any idea how to balance a budget like he claims.
Unfortunately, Hugh Hewitt signaled this weekend that Kasich is the establishment’s new “not Trump.” By pushing Kasich instead of Cruz, the establishment’s greed to get exactly the candidate they want will make it much more likely Trump is the top delegate earner and nominee.
They attack Trump (not Cruz) because they fear him. Trump will beat Hillary like a rented mule.
If you use this term...”to go man-a-mano “ You have lost the argument.
“.polls have consistently shown that Cruz would beat Trump head-to-head in almost every state..”
Cruz is losing Evangelicals to Trump head to head. The idea Cruz is going to win the rest of electorate head to head when he’s losing Evangelicals to Trump is a day dream.
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