“.polls have consistently shown that Cruz would beat Trump head-to-head in almost every state..”
Cruz is losing Evangelicals to Trump head to head. The idea Cruz is going to win the rest of electorate head to head when he’s losing Evangelicals to Trump is a day dream.
The latest NBC/WSJ national poll projects Cruz to beat Trump 57-40 in a hypothetical two-way race while the ABC/Washington Post poll has Cruz beating Trump 54-41. Notice how they both have Trump around 40% in a two-man race, similar to what we saw from the Michigan exit poll, which also showed Cruz winning a hypothetical two-man race.