I’m on board with the idea of Kasich winning Ohio as being BETTER for Trump. That means Kasich stays in with his “I don’t care about the math” mantra and helps hand states like Pennsylvania to Trump. We’ll keep seeing that 40-30-30-ish split with Trump on top. Kasich staying in would ensure that Trump has a lead over Cruz going into the RNC. Kasich doesn’t seem to understand the concept of winner-take-all states...which makes it hard to believe he really has any idea how to balance a budget like he claims.
Unfortunately, Hugh Hewitt signaled this weekend that Kasich is the establishment’s new “not Trump.” By pushing Kasich instead of Cruz, the establishment’s greed to get exactly the candidate they want will make it much more likely Trump is the top delegate earner and nominee.
I disagree for a simple reason: money. Kasich has about a million dollars on hand, minus whatever he has poured into Ohio this last month.
Most of the establishment PACs have been heavily invested in Rubio for the last several months and it will take them more than a week or two in order to cut new ads that meld with Kasich’s messaging. (Remember, PAC’s can’t have contact with any campaign.)
Rubio had about five million on hand, and that would have been enough to put up ads and campaign stops in Arizona, Utah, and Wisconsin. But Kasich can’t. He doesn’t have the luxury of overlapping media markets and both Trump (infinite money available) and Cruz (thirteen million on hand, not counting his PACs) can starve him of available air time no matter where he tries to focus.
By the time Kasich can get more money, and the establishment PACs can shift into gear for him, he will have been invisible on the trail for over a week.