Posted on 03/13/2016 10:27:55 AM PDT by Steelfish
Polls: Trump Ahead in Florida, Illinois; Kasich Leads in Ohio by MARK MURRAY
OHIO: Kasich 39% to Trump 33%
Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential field in the March 15 primary states of Florida and Illinois, while John Kasich holds the edge in his home state of Ohio, according to three new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.
On the Democratic side, meanwhile, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders in all three states, although she's just narrowly ahead in Illinois.
In Florida, Trump holds a 2-to-1 advantage among likely GOP voters over Marco Rubio, the state's U.S. senator, 43 percent to 22 percent. They're followed by Ted Cruz at 21 percent and John Kasich at 9 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at nbcnews.com ...
I’m in FL... have a wicked flu, but not leaving anything to chance. Will drag myself to the polls Tues and vote for Trump no matter how miserable I feel.
Keep dreaming.
L
They’ll vote for Trump when push comes to shove and if they won’t, kiss the second amendment goodbye I guess. We’ll see if any American men can find their balls after that. I got news though, if the second amendment goes away, the Republican party is done as is every other issue they hold dear because will never vote Republican again once that leverage is gone.
Who'll promptly get tied up in federal courts over his eligibility.
BTW, This item was overlooked a week ago.
Trump wins District of Columbia GOP Straw Poll
http://dcgop.com/donald-trump-wins-district-of-columbia-gop-straw-poll/
FL, and OH are Winner Take All.
MO is winner take all if winner gets 50 percent or more, otherwise it is proportional based on Winner Take All by congressional district.
IL is Statewide delegates are winner take all, congressional district delegates elected directly on ballot and bound as they declare
NC is proportional.
“NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.”
This is the poll that said Cruz was leading Trump going into SC. How did that turn out?
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Also the same pollsters that try to tell us Trump can’t beat Hillary but all the others can.
We will see soon enough. Cruz is in a much more difficult position to win the presidency. He's racking up wins in mostly red states while Trump is racking up wins in blue states or battleground states. Those are the states that we will need to win the general.
Yes, Cruz did well to win in states like TX, UT, AK and KS. But those states were voting Republican even if Jebbie Bush was the nominee.
In order for the Republicans to win the presidency, they will need to win in states like OH, FL, PA, MI and VA. Cruz isn't doing well in those states at all and that's a big, big problem for November.
Missouri is winner-take-all with 52 delegates. (Ohio has 63).
North Carolina is proportional according to the statewide vote, with no minimum.
As others have noted, if Trump gets Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, and makes a strong showing in NC, the race is effectively over.
The most Cruz would be able to do at that point is get enough delegates to deny Trump the first-ballot nomination, and let the Establishment hand it to Romney.
Pesky thing, those voters in a primary nomination process...who do they think they are?
Used to respect him, but not since he joined the meathead Establishment supporting Cruz. His opinion is no longer valid...he has shown his stripes.
As a Trump supporter, I disagree. If Trump wins FL (99 delegates) it is all over. Kasich, the sitting governor should be favored to win Ohio easily. The fact that it is this close shows how bad a candidate Kasich is. And Rubio has been urging his supporters in Ohio to vote for Kasich.
If Trump "only" takes FL, NC and IL and loses OH and MO, I will be very disappointed.
I will be ecstatic.
However, if he loses OH, it plants enough of a seed of doubt for many to question his inevitability and the establishment GOP and media will double-down on disrupting his rallies and making it seem to many Americans that Trump is too divisive. I'm not worried about those already supporting Trump but the propaganda campaign may influence a lot of others.
BS. I have my doubts that you are a Trump supporter. You are trying to inflate expectations beyond reasonable bounds.
All who were certified Canadian citizens as late as May, 2014, and simultaneously serving as a U. S. Senator....
I expect big endorsements to start rolling out after the primaries next week.
I think the NRO movement to deny Trump the nomination is a failure, and common-sense Republicans are going to put the squash on it.
There have been some reports that some HR members are ready to endorse, and after a resounding Trump victory, there will be no holding them back.
Kevin McCarthy, of all people, is now on record as saying he sees where Trump's groundswell of new Republicans can help downballot races in swing districts.
When Huck, Giuliani, and Gingrich endorse, this is effectively over.
Proving once and for all that this #Never movement was NEVER intended to support Cruz.
DC primary was yesterday. Trump came third behind Rubio and Kasich, and got no delegates. Not a surprise -- DC is the city of the Establishment, and anybody wanting to reduce government would not have many fans there.
Disagree...sure it prolongs the process, but Kasich doesn’t have a chance to win anywhere else once Ohio is over. It will just continue to be an ABT battle with 2,3 and 4. The inevitability is still there...Trump may not have the required # at the end of the process, but he’ll have much more than Ted and even more than Rubio (if he stays ln) and Kasich (if he stays in not winning anything else besides his home state) entering the convention. And there’s no way Trump’s going to enter that convention as the clear front runner and not walk out as the candidate. The GOPe is fighting it all it can now, but they know the eventual outcome.
Unless they change the rules Romney can’t get it either.
The winner has to be someone who at least won X number of states.
Ohio really is the big question. Yes, Illinois and North Carolina have more delegates than Ohio, but they are proportional and are not likely to give anyone 66 delegates in one fell swoop. (A candidate would need to win North Carolina with 91.1% to gather 60 delegates there, and would need to win 17 of 18 congressional districts in Illinois to win 66.)
And while 66 doesn’t sound like a lot of votes, it is worth over 5% of the delegates needed to win the nomination.
If Trump wins Florida (99 delegates), Illinois statewide and 10 districts (45 delegates), North Carolina with 36% (26 delegates), and even Missouri with 5 districts, (37 delegates), he would end up with 671. That would mean he needs 566 delegates to clinch the nomination. Since there are only 962 delegates left in the primary season, he would need to claim 58.8% of the remaining delegates.
If he wins Ohio in addition to the above, he would have 737 delegates and only need 500 delegates, or 52.0% of the remaining delegates, a much easier path.
Of course, if things turn even a few percent south for him and he ends up winning Florida (99), Illinois, but only 7 districts (36), North Carolina at 31% (23), and loses Missouri to Cruz and only picks up 3 districts (15), and loses Ohio to Kasich, he will end up with 637 delegates, 600 delegates short. He would then need 62.3%.
Tuesday will determine a lot of what happens next.
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