*LIVE 3/8/16 GOP Primary Thread (MI, MS, ID, HI)*

self | 3/8/16 | tatown

[tatown]

Hawaii · 19 delegates Last poll closes at 11:00 PM CT

Idaho · 32 delegates Last poll closes at 10:00 PM CT

Michigan · 59 delegates Last poll closes at 8:00 PM CT

Mississippi · 40 delegates Last poll closes at 7:00 PM CT

[jjsheridan5]

I didn’t used to support term limits but the bad side of taking away free choice of the voters is outweighed by the good of the regular ousting of the corrupt career political class in power in D.C. One way or the other, they need to go and stay gone.

Term limits are fool's gold. The establishment has a revolving door, anyway. They aren't going to be affected much. They will hand-pick candidates out of a pool of establishment types, and their stranglehold will not diminish. Basically, they will not "go and stay gone". They will simply shuffle from position to position, with greater frequency than they do now. If anything, term limits would help the establishment, because it means that truly non-establishment politicians would never rise to a position where they could actually accomplish anything.

No, the only way to beat them is through someone like Trump -- an outsider, who appeals to a broad cross-section of disaffected voters, and who has the personal courage and conviction to be constantly using his base to attack the establishment where they are weakest, which is the fact that their public support is a mile-wide and an inch deep, and the fact that they cannot withstand any real scrutiny.

[Jim W N]

Not sure I follow your reasoning how term limits would make it worse for outsiders to get in.

[tatown]

There should be zero doubt at this point that Cruz is one of them!

[over3Owithabrain]

If Cruz becomes Prez he owes:

Lindsey Graham
Mitt Romney
GOPe
Glenn Beck
Goldman Sachs
Robert Mercer
Etc

Trump owes:
The American people

[Theophilus]

If he doesn't get out of the way.

I think Trump is an imposter but it would be absurd for me to wish he would quit. It's understandable that you want to defeat Cruz. It's understandable that you might never support Cruz. But it's just silly to wish he would quit.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

The results in the contests so far show no significant increase in Trump support from undecided voters. But maybe we will have a different result in Mississippi. We will know in a few hours.

[CodeToad]

“I voted for the conservative running to stop the liberal Trump. I voted for Ted Cruz.”

A foreign born Canadian. Got it. Constitution be damned.

[Kenny]

If Cruz is sincere about the GOP defying the will of the people with a brokered convention, then he needs to get out if he doesn’t have a clear path.

If his only path is a contested convention and he stays in, the writing’s on the wall.

[Darren McCarty]

Constitution be damned. Where's your constitutional law degree?

[Theophilus]

They are both still a lot closer to each other than they are to 1237.

[BigEdLB]

(Kasich) He isn't evil or corrupt, just typical boring.

[jjsheridan5]

Not sure I follow your reasoning how term limits would make it worse for outsiders to get in.

First, it wouldn't make it substantially more difficult for the establishment. All of the money, and party infrastructure, would go to the hand-chosen successors. While they would lack the name recognition, they wouldn't lack for anything else. But the issue really isn't whether outsiders could get in. It might be slightly easier for them to do so (only slightly, for the reason mentioned above). The bigger problem is that they would have very little time to accomplish anything, and, because they would be heavily outnumbered by establishment types, it is unlikely that outsiders would accomplish anything at all. It is because of this, that the establishment, if they were affected at all, would be more likely to be helped, not hurt, by term limits.

Not that it makes any difference. The establishment is so entrenched, and has so many build in advantages, substantive changes are not going to come from within the house or the senate.

[mrsmith]

Interesting tweet from reporter:

“daveweigel ;@daveweigel · 58m58 minutes ago

I just keep meeting Dems in MI who say Hillary has the primary locked, so they cast anti-Trump votes for Kasich.”

[Kenny]

They are both still a lot closer to each other than they are to 1237.

Agreed but saying if Cruz has no shot, then he needs to drop to prevent a brokered convention. Trump would be our best shot to take the nomination straight up.

And I'm saying that Cruz is a phony and even if he sees he doesn't have a clear path he'll stay in to get to that contested convention for Mitt.

[No Dems 2016]

Trump: MS- Win by very narrow margin MI- 2nd by a few points ID- 2nd HI- 3rd

I have difficulty believing that. I'm not 100% sure on MS, but I'm thinking that Trump wins at the very least by more than he did in LA - in no small part because MS is open while LA was closed. As for Michigan, most polls show Trump ahead by solid double digits so I would be surprised if he wins by less than 10 points. ID I'm thinking will go to Cruz while HI may go to Rubio. All in all, should be a decent to good night for Trump. Just my 2 cents.

[Jim W N]

Why would Trump leave what he loves doing, being where he loves being, and making the kind of money he loves making if he’s not sincere in wanting to turn America around? Doesn’t make sense. If he were an “impostor” what would be in it for him that could possibly be better than what he’s already got?

[Kenny]

As for Michigan, most polls show Trump ahead by solid double digits so I would be surprised if he wins by less than 10 points.

Didn't you get the GOP/media memo? All the polls are wrong and all the people they surveyed were wrong. Don't believe your own eyes, believe the establishment.

[BigEdLB]

Wild card is that Inds in ID can change to R on the day of the primary and vote.

[jjsheridan5]

It's understandable that you might never support Cruz. But it's just silly to wish he would quit.

In terms of his political positioning, I very much support those same ideas (for the most part). But political positions and theories make very little difference when you have an establishment as thoroughly entrenched, and as thoroughly immune to public pressure, as we do now. It isn't whether I support Trump or Cruz that is important, to me. What is important is that one candidate has the potential to severely damage that establishment, and the other doesn't. But the one who doesn't (Cruz), does have the ability to block the one who does (Trump) from the nomination. That is why it isn't "silly" to wish he would quit. It is merely a recognition that the only path to defeating the establishment has, as a prerequisite, Cruz not denying Trump the necessary delegates to win on the first ballot. The best way to ensure Cruz not doing that, is for Cruz to do the right thing: back out, and publicly support Trump.

[KansasGirl]

[Is that a guess on Idaho? Because I would think Idaho would be Trump country.]

Of course, he will. He’ll win it the same way Thad Cochran defeated Chris McDaniel, with Democrat crossover voters.