Posted on 03/08/2016 5:24:01 AM PST by tatown
Hawaii · 19 delegates Last poll closes at 11:00 PM CT
Idaho · 32 delegates Last poll closes at 10:00 PM CT
Michigan · 59 delegates Last poll closes at 8:00 PM CT
Mississippi · 40 delegates Last poll closes at 7:00 PM CT
I’m almost afraid to look!
Probably a split at the end of the day between Trump and Cruz.
Oh, forgot about the party affiliation part.
I thought you were somehow referring to voting trump over someone else.
The one Mississippi poll from Magellan Strategies released one week ago has Trump at 41 and Ted at 17. A 24 point lead. If Trump’s polls in the southern states are ‘amazingly accurate’ he should win Ms easily. He had 10,000 people at a rally in Madison last night.
I voted for the conservative running to stop the liberal Trump. I voted for Ted Cruz.
I'm most interested in Michigan, on both R and D sides. If Trump's margin is large, and Hillary's is smaller than expected, then it might give weight to Trump's beliefs that he can appeal enough to cross-over D's in the Rust Belt to put those states in play.
Michigan is open, so those blue-collar D's can choose today whether to go with Trump or Hillary.
I sense that Idaho will go to Cruz. I haven't heard a thing about Hawaii.
I will be shocked if the % victory in mississipi exceeds 5% for Trump.
No paper trail backup in many ‘voting machine’ precincts.
No way to know if your vote counts or not.
Everything you ever thought about Mississippi and corruption being connected is true.
We’ll see tonight though.
‘No backup paper??”
Sheesh, sounds like Summer 2014 all over again.
Oh well, hope it goes smooth. How were lines?
Didn’t ask coworker about lines, just about the backup paper tape that was in ALL the voting machines at this precinct prior to summer ‘14.
Sounds fishy indeed..
Thanks for reply!
There is also 20 points undecided in Mississippi according to that poll, and in the four States that have voted with 10% or more undecided on the poll average, Cruz has over-performed dramatically.
So even if Trump ends up with 41%, Cruz could still get into the upper 30’s making it a very narrow win for Trump.
I’m very suspicious of all this “underperforming/overperforming” polls. It’s getting to be the norm and why? Most MI/MS polls out now were taken in the last couple of days so why wouldn’t they be close?
The gov’t and media is telling us not to believe the very polls they’ve relied on in the past.
Oh oh, not safe to point out the 35% ceiling.
The polls are very, very accurate when they come to predicting Trump’s number. Much more so than I expected when I looked at the numbers on Sunday.
About a 1% variation across all of the contests so far.
The polls way underestimate Cruz overall, though. On average, Cruz scores right at 27% higher in his actual results than the final polls indicate. This is especially true in contests where there is more than 10% undecided voters.
This indicates two things to me. First, heavy amount of last day deciders go toward Cruz. This could be a number of reasons why, but Occam’s Razor suggests that it is because these voters don’t know who they support, but they do not support Trump. So they are voting against Trump by voting for the candidate they think can most easily beat him.
Second, I believe there is a reverse Bradley effect going on. Because Cruz is perceived to be a “not nice” candidate, people who do support him are embarrassed to tell the poll taker. But when they get their ballot, they vote for him.
Amen!
There, that's better.
I’ve thought for some time now that Kasich will be on the ticket with Trump.
I voted for the US nationalist to stop the supporter of a North American Union. I voted Trump.
FYI. Rudy G just tweeted his endorsement of Trump.
God BLESS YOU.. what state?
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