The one Mississippi poll from Magellan Strategies released one week ago has Trump at 41 and Ted at 17. A 24 point lead. If Trump’s polls in the southern states are ‘amazingly accurate’ he should win Ms easily. He had 10,000 people at a rally in Madison last night.
There is also 20 points undecided in Mississippi according to that poll, and in the four States that have voted with 10% or more undecided on the poll average, Cruz has over-performed dramatically.
So even if Trump ends up with 41%, Cruz could still get into the upper 30’s making it a very narrow win for Trump.
But did you factor in overperformance/underperformance, and undecided? Apparently these factors nullify any and all polls these days.