Didn't want to have to do this, but you forced me into it.Click to support Free Republic or else. ":^)
Posted on 03/04/2016 12:36:14 PM PST by Sparticus
The delegate math is becoming increasingly clear: The March 15 Florida and Ohio contests will determine if Donald Trump is the sure-to-be Republican nominee or if there's a contested GOP convention.
And there doesn't appear to be any other possibility, given that the nominee needs to win 1,237 delegates to win a majority....
(Excerpt) Read more at nbcnews.com ...
Romney insured Trump wins Ohio and Florida.
Trying to figure out who will and who will NOT be the GOP’s candidate is like playing roulette without the ball. Right now its anybody’s game and like Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over ‘till the fat lady sings” and she hasn’t even started warming up yet. Be patient little ones.............
Didn't want to have to do this, but you forced me into it.But he doesn’t win until he has 1237 delegates at the convention. If he falls short, the convention will make its decision based on the rules that were in place before any of the candidate names were known. Including the fact that there are rules on how to amend the rules if the convention decides it needs to do so.
Yes, majority not plurality. Has Trump won a majority of the votes in any state?
Rule 40 is so obscure, a controversy over them changing it wouldn’t get much attention at all. The fact that the rule was ever set up in the first place was to keep insurgent candidates from being able to compete. So there should’ve been outrage over the rule existing in the first place. But there wasn’t because of the obscurity.
Yes, He has won 50% or more of the delegates in 6 states. He should have his 8 after tomorrow.
Yep, HENCE MY TAG LINE.
Voting for Cruz earlier meant trying to get Cruz the nomination.
Voting for Cruz now means trying to throw the selection process into the GOP Convention, which means letting the GOPe choose - which, of course, means either Romney, Jeb, or Linda.
Do Cruz supporters REALLY want that outcome?
Do you know what the proceedure is for changing Rule 40? I would assume if he has the nessisary eight it would be difficult to change the rule. But I have enough experience with the rules of political conventions to know assuming can be a fatal mistake.
“Trying to figure out who will and who will NOT be the GOP’s candidate is like playing roulette without the ball. Right now its anybody’s game and like Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over ‘till the fat lady sings” and she hasn’t even started warming up yet. Be patient little ones.............”
Regarding the quantity, quality and depth of internet forum politics, it was much better in 2000 when fewer but smarter people were involved.
These days when everybody gets on the net, it turns into LIV.
IOW “back in the day” the delegate details would be addressed more, and rumors and rancor, less.
I understand all that. My only point is the time for the RNC to determine whether someone is an acceptable candidate is long before the first primary ... IMO.
8 victories or you can’t be included. If they change that now BEFORE the convention and someone other than Cruz or Trump gets the nod without eight, then forget there used to be a Republican Party. They will be gone forever.
I understood what you said the first time you said it and my disagreement still stands.
Rule 40 could theoretically be changed in April by the RNC Rules Committee. As there will still be over 600 delegates yet to be selected then, that isn’t going to happen.
Rule 40 could also be changed by the Convention Rules Committee just before the convention opens. Any rule change then would have to be approved by a majority of convention delegates. Trump and Cruz together seem likely to easily have the backing of a comfortable majority of delegates. They are not going to endorse RNC shenanigans.
There is not going to be a contested convention. Its fun to speculate about but the hard truth is that Trump is going to run through the rest of the states fairly uncontested. Look for him to take 4 more states tomorrow. On the 8th he Takes MI on the 15th he takes FL and its over.
Teddy can check Glenn into rehab and Marco can schedule a foam party. :-)
But if he wins almost all the rest with 37% because people don’t get out, doesn’t that dilute the vote to a convention, especially off rule 40 is suspended?
I mostly wanted Cruz but Trump has just taken over and they both want lots of the same things.
This thing is not going to a brokered convention. Trump will have at least 1237 delegates in his pocket when he walks in the front door.
Not so sure.
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