That's crazy! The only way that thing could hit the Earth would be if Gravity was involved!
Never mind the Moon! Earth’s diameter is nominally 8000 miles, so the chance of anything within 11000 miles of hitting the earth actually hitting is, nominally, (4/(11+4))^2 = 16/225 = ... ( calculator please! ) 0.07, assuming equal probability per unit area of cross section.
In other words ... that’s close!
That's crazy! The only way that thing could hit the Earth would be if Gravity was involved!
Neglecting the effects of atmospheric drag, the density gradient in the atmosphere, and the competing gravitational pull of Earth and Moon (hint: have you ever noticed how many freaking *craters* the Moon has? I think it’s been ‘taking one for the team’ for aeons...)