Neglecting the effects of atmospheric drag, the density gradient in the atmosphere, and the competing gravitational pull of Earth and Moon (hint: have you ever noticed how many freaking *craters* the Moon has? I think it’s been ‘taking one for the team’ for aeons...)
These have nothing whatsoever to do with the probability of a given trajectory intersecting the globe of the earth.
...and the competing gravitational pull of Earth and Moon (hint: have you ever noticed how many freaking *craters* the Moon has? I think it’s been ‘taking one for the team’ for aeons...)
The mass of the earth is 81 times the mass of the moon, so the "intercepting power" of the moon is very little amplified over its "raw" angular coverage of ~.01^2/4pi = ~ 8e-6, or say 1/100,000, which is statistically insignificant.
Well, this ignores the concentration of orbits in the plane of the ecliptic. I'll give that a factor of ten, so I'll estimate 1/10,000 incoming objects to be intercepted by the moon, over the aeons.