Posted on 02/29/2016 1:43:08 PM PST by Jeff Head
On the eve of Super Tuesday we are about to witness (and many will take part in) a pivotal day in the GOP Presidential Primary Election of 2016.
Donald Trump is building momentum. He has won the last three elections straight and his polling numbers and delegate count are both rising rapidly.
He seems almost unstoppable.
Only two men are in any kind of position to blunt Donald Trump's momentum. They are senator Ted Cruz of Texas, and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.
Ted Cruz won the Iowa vote and is the only other candidate in the GOP line up to win an election so far. He has placed well in the other three.
Marco Rubio has yet to win a primary election, however he has placed second in the last two, and he seems have taken on the mantle of the GOP establishments pick to stop Trump.
Both men are approaching elections in their home states where both men were elected to the Senate with millions of votes and sizable margins of victory. it is pretty much accepted that for both men, wins in their home states...and fairly convincing wins are absolutely necessary of they hope to have any chance at ultimately stopping or blunting Trump.
I have averaged the last six or seven major polls for each of these candidates in their home states to see how they appear to be doing.
Texas will hold its vote tomorrow, Super Tuesday, so we will know soon how Ted Cruz fairs there.
Florida will hold its vote on Tuesday, March 15th, two weeks from tomorrow. The votes on March 8th and March 15th, when coupled with Super Tuesday, tomorrow, will likely paint a clear picture of the prospects of both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in terms of their having any chance of blunting Donald Trump's run to the nomination.
TED CRUZ OF TEXAS:
Ted Cruz won his 2012 election to the US Senate with almost four and one half million votes.
He has been seen as the anti establishment Republican politician ever since.
His strong Tea Party ties and his popularity with the popular governor of Texas position him will in the state.
Here are the recent polling results on the eve of the4 Texas vote:
From these numbers, Ted Cruz is currently leading in Texas by almost 10%. Note that a single win in Texas will not be enough...but it is most definitely a MUST for Ted Cruz.
The voting on Tuesday is proportional in terms of delegates, so if Cruz can win Texas (which is the largest prize on Super Tuesday with a total of 166 delegates) by a good margin and then manage a couple of other victories on Tuesday and keep the other states relatively close, he should come out of Super Tuesday in at least a passable position.
PREDICTION: Cruz wins Texas by 10 points.
...and now on to Florida and Marco Rubio.
MARCO RUBIO OF FLORIDA:
The prospects for Marco Rubio are much more bleak.
He won his 2010 Senate election in Florida with over two and one half million votes. He too was strongly tied to the Tea Party.
But his direct involvement with the Gang of 8 in the immigration debate and proposal of a pathway to citizenship for illegal aliens was viewed as a betrayal of his campaign promises by many.
His well spoken delivery of other conservative principles have kept him in the hunt, and with Jeb Bush in particular out of the race, Rubio is positioned to be the Republican Party establishment favorite.
But the current polls are not bearing this out. His own actions in the senate have opened the door for Trump and Cruz to make inroads in his support in Florida and Donald Trump is particularly capitalizing on it.
Only two major polls have been held in Florida over the last several weeks, so I have average Georgia polls in with those two to help flesh out the numbers. Note, that the Georgia polls actually improve Rubio's position over the two Florida polls.
The average here shows Rubio losing to Trump by 15 points...and if you just take the FL polls, the loss climbs to over 20 points.
PREDICTION: Rubio loses Florida by 20 points.
Rubio may win a single primary on super Tuesday, Minnesota where he is actually polling well. But that will not be enough. He most certainly will gather a number of delegates tomorrow...but without a strong win in his home state on the 15th, it will have little meaning.
And at this point, that does just not seem to be in the realm of possibility.
SUMMARY:
From the current polls and trends, it is apparent that Crux will retain a chance to influence the overall trajectory of the primaries, and become the only other candidate with any chance od actually blunting Donald Trump.
Rubio appears certain to lose his home state and therefore any chance he had to himself rise as a major threat to Trump.
This does not mean he will not have influence. He will win some delegates...but the polling appears to show that it will be less and less in terms of the overall percentages, particularly as the primaries move into the winner take all states.
The most likely scenario is that Trump wins the nomination outrights.
Next to that is the chance that Trump get the most delegates, but does not get enough total delegates to outright win. In that case he will need to engage someone before or during the convention to help push his count over the tope.
The person most likely to have the second highest delegate count is almost certainly going to be Ted Cruz.
The question, in that scenario, would become who does Trump choose to deal with?
As it is, that is the less likely scenario of Trump winning outright.
I am a Cruz supporter and will support him through the primaries until he either wins (seems very unlikely at this point) or until he drops out and throws his support elsewhere (which I believe is most likely to be Donald Trump.
In the event of Trump winning the nomination, I will most definitely support him against Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.
FYI...Cruz and Rubio prospects in their home states.
What ever happens, some pollsters are going to have a lot of egg on their faces Tuesday
Trump will come out way ahead of either of these guys tomorrow. Rubio will receive very few delegates. Maybe zero.
Thanks. Best thing for the Nation now would be a victory by DJT in Texas, although I doubt Tuesday’s TC voters will understand or believe that.
A DJT Texas Primary win improves GOP odds against Hitlary or Biden.
My part of north east LF seems to be going for Trump.
Not even seen a Rubio sticker since all of this started.
Carson, Bush, a couple of Cruz stickers, but nothing to do with Rubio and I know of no one who is voting for him.
Not bad for a pair of illegal alien supporting politicians. I wonder if the islamo supporting “Catholic Charities” have weighed in on the polling?
I agree that Rubio receives the fewest delegates of the three.
But he has a bonafied chance of winning Minnesota and getting the most delegates from there, maybe 15 or so.
I think that after tomorrow, Trump is going to be sitting on 400 or more delegates total.
Cruz will be somewhere south of 200 total.
Rubio closer to 100.
But those are just my off the cuff predictions.
I do believe Cruz will win Texas tomorrow and get maybe 70 of the 155 delegates there. Cruz about 50, Rubio maybe 20.
Excellent summary!
And many miss Rubio’s advantage in Minnesota. The media never mention it, they plan on using his ‘surprise’ win their in a ‘surging’ narrative.
Thanks Jeff. I’m an angry (at the GOPe) Carson supporter...but I will happily cast my vote in the general for Mr. Trump.
a Hubert Humphrey moment? Couldn’t resist. ;-)
I believe this race is all but over, and you know full well how I feel about the projected result.
As I have said before, I will vote for the republican candidate, no matter how distasteful I find doing so to be.
And, assuming Donald Trump wins the nomination, after July we will see a media onslaught unlike we have ever seen in this country. The media are no doubt amassing mountains of evidence of Trump's unfitness to be president (some of it true, some of it magnified out of all realistic proportions, and some of it created out of whole cloth), and, in comparison, and as a result of their refusal to accurately report her high crimes, Hillary will appear to be pure as the driven snow.
The choreography is intricate, and it will be interesting (if terribly tragic) to see it played out.
That is all assuming that the FBI and/or DOJ completely abdicate their Constitutional responsibilities to indict her in the interim (which is a pretty fair bet as well).
Brokeback Sleazeballs.
Thanks for all your good work, Jeff.
I’m a Cruz supporter. What could ever possess him to support Trump?
FYI...on the eve of Supper Tuesday.
...sorry for any double pings.
thanks Jeff. Double ping better than no ping?
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