Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner
The Statesman | February 23, 2016 | Christopher Cameron
Professor Helmut Norpoth's forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association.
Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate's performance in their party's primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.
Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth's formula.
"The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president," Norpoth said, "if he's a nominee of the [Republican] party."
Norpoth's primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent.
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Getting ahead of the process here. Mr. Trump needs to get through the primary and aftermath.
My fear with Mr. Trump as the GOP nominee is the general election which brings into play the Clinton opposition research goons. God only knows what skeletons are in his closet. He’s Teflon now — but Clinton Inc. plays for blood.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susana_Martinez
I dont think Trump will pick a politician for his VP
Who likes Trump and has "gravitas"?
Giuliani has "gravitas", in spades.
http://nypost.com/2016/02/22/giuliani-is-trumps-campaign-consigliere/
Herman Cain
Allen West
I would think Trump/Terminator but Arnold is not eligible. It would be a very Trumpian think to do though. Two “tough guys” who aren’t nearly as conservative as they posture themselves to be.
Glenn Beck.
Barring any surprises, I tend to agree. And while Trump may not be a "perfect" conservative candidate, he might be what the Republican Party needs.
He won't be a huge cheerleader for evangelical causes, but he won't openly mock Christians in the way Obama has. He also won't call himself a "Christian" in one breath, and then do everything he can to support Islam.
He will be pro-business, though this may come with some "deal-making." Overall, I would think his positives will overcome his negatives.
He will be pro-police and pro-military.
With any luck he will--as a successful businessman--surround himself with good people, and he'll trust their input into his administration.
Most importantly, he will be FOR the United States, unlike the traitor we've had over the past 7 years.
I really find it hard to believe after the issue that Trump made about Cruz’ eligibility, he would accept Rubio as a running mate. After all, at least Cruz, through his mother, was born an American citizen.
Oprah Winfrey
Vince McMahon
Kim Kardashian
Jesse Ventura
I think Donny should put together a “Who Wants to Be a Vice-President?” reality show and let celebrities compete. Ratings blockbuster.
Tom Tancredo.
Trump/Pirro!
If Trump doesn’t pick Cruz, then he will not get my vote. I can vote the rest of the ballot without having to vote for Trump.
And .. think about it .. Cruz is the only Constitutional Scholar who will be able to keep Trump out of trouble - by writing the best legislation to put forth the Agenda that Trump keeps saying he wants to do. Without a person who can help Trump use the right language, I can never vote for Rubio .. because Rubio is a back-stabber and he has continued to lie about how he voted/supported the Gang of Eight legislation.
The last thing Trump needs is a back-stabber with knowledge of what Trump is planning to do.
He needs to see what he is up against.
Cruz would make sure those 10+million or so conservatives that have reservations about Don-Don don't stay home like the 4 million that did over the Mormon Romney.
No establishment candidates need apply. Rubio has to much of the smell of Bush on him.....
Just don't......
I doubt Donald would pick anyone ineligible to step up to Pres, if needed.
ALL these comments about marco or cruz would be good VP are wasted space since it’s been discussed on FR repeatedly that they both are likely not truly constitutionally eligible.
Hillary?
The swing states in 2012 were Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Virginia, and Ohio. A total of 1,193,729 votes in select precincts across those five states swung the election. Virginia and Ohio would be nice prizes. So would taking New York from Clinton; it's Trump's home state and Clinton's carpet-bag.
So who helps Trump in Virginia and Ohio? Obviously, Kasich helps in Ohio, but at what price? Would Trump get Kasich's support regardless of being on a ticket? Would early Trump supporters see choosing Kasich as selling out the movement?
What if Trump were to bring back somebody like Scott Walker, who dropped out early enough to not be too tarnished and still has a reputation as a fighter in Wisconsin? Walker beat the teacher's unions and Trump wants to bring education control back to the states. Could Walker help in the midwest?
What it Trump were to name Allen West? West is military and would help in Florida and with veterans, and Trump wants to fix Veteran Administration. West might also finally break out as a role model for African-Americans who are finally ready to cross over to vote for Trump.
Who is strong on immigration? How about former Arizona governor Jan Brewer? She was tough on immigration in Arizona, supports the military, fought Obamacare, improved Arizona child protective services, is pro-life, supports the second amendment, and would challenge Clinton for the women's vote.
-PJ