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Like it or not, Trump is almost certain to be the nominee. Time to start the next phase of the campaign.
1 posted on 02/24/2016 8:26:42 AM PST by Repealthe17thAmendment
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment
This is a forecast that will give you pause because of the number of times it's been CORRECT since 1912.
 
The ONLY time this forecast, has been incorrect when applied, was ONCE, which was in 1960.
 
This is a PROFOUND PREDICTION

Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner
The Statesman  | February 23, 2016 | Christopher Cameron

A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee.

Professor Helmut Norpoth's forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association.

Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate's performance in their party's primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.

Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth's formula.

"The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president," Norpoth said, "if he's a nominee of the [Republican] party."

Norpoth's primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent.

Complete story source:

https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/


44 posted on 02/24/2016 8:43:40 AM PST by VideoDoctor
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

Getting ahead of the process here. Mr. Trump needs to get through the primary and aftermath.

My fear with Mr. Trump as the GOP nominee is the general election which brings into play the Clinton opposition research goons. God only knows what skeletons are in his closet. He’s Teflon now — but Clinton Inc. plays for blood.


45 posted on 02/24/2016 8:44:32 AM PST by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susana_Martinez

50 posted on 02/24/2016 8:46:28 AM PST by COUNTrecount (Race Baiting...... "It's What's For Breakfast")
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

I dont think Trump will pick a politician for his VP


52 posted on 02/24/2016 8:47:14 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, R)
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

Who likes Trump and has "gravitas"?

Giuliani has "gravitas", in spades.

http://nypost.com/2016/02/22/giuliani-is-trumps-campaign-consigliere/

54 posted on 02/24/2016 8:47:28 AM PST by Sooth2222 ("Every nation has the government it deserves." - Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821))
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment
Possibly Jim Webb, a moderate Southern Democrat who bailed out of the Democrat Presidential race early. His natural constituency, blue collar whites, has largely left the Democrat Party. He has extensive real military experience, unlike John Kerry, and would strengthen Trump's appeal among veterans and with blue collar whites, the so-called Reagan Democrats. One drawback is his age, 70, the same as Trump.
57 posted on 02/24/2016 8:48:36 AM PST by Wallace T.
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

Herman Cain

Allen West


62 posted on 02/24/2016 8:51:06 AM PST by RMDupree (I'm not really here.)
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

I would think Trump/Terminator but Arnold is not eligible. It would be a very Trumpian think to do though. Two “tough guys” who aren’t nearly as conservative as they posture themselves to be.


64 posted on 02/24/2016 8:51:23 AM PST by OrangeHoof (Obama - the AIDS virus for the American body politic.)
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

Glenn Beck.


66 posted on 02/24/2016 8:52:25 AM PST by Solson (Trump plays to win. Deal with it.)
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment
Like it or not, Trump is almost certain to be the nominee

Barring any surprises, I tend to agree. And while Trump may not be a "perfect" conservative candidate, he might be what the Republican Party needs.

He won't be a huge cheerleader for evangelical causes, but he won't openly mock Christians in the way Obama has. He also won't call himself a "Christian" in one breath, and then do everything he can to support Islam.

He will be pro-business, though this may come with some "deal-making." Overall, I would think his positives will overcome his negatives.

He will be pro-police and pro-military.

With any luck he will--as a successful businessman--surround himself with good people, and he'll trust their input into his administration.

Most importantly, he will be FOR the United States, unlike the traitor we've had over the past 7 years.

68 posted on 02/24/2016 8:53:30 AM PST by Lou L (Health "insurance" is NOT the same as health "care")
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

I really find it hard to believe after the issue that Trump made about Cruz’ eligibility, he would accept Rubio as a running mate. After all, at least Cruz, through his mother, was born an American citizen.


69 posted on 02/24/2016 8:54:05 AM PST by erkelly
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment
On Don's short list:

Oprah Winfrey
Vince McMahon
Kim Kardashian
Jesse Ventura

74 posted on 02/24/2016 8:57:46 AM PST by Charles Henrickson (Social and constitutional conservative)
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

I think Donny should put together a “Who Wants to Be a Vice-President?” reality show and let celebrities compete. Ratings blockbuster.


78 posted on 02/24/2016 8:59:18 AM PST by Charles Henrickson (Social and constitutional conservative)
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

Tom Tancredo.


80 posted on 02/24/2016 8:59:44 AM PST by crz
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment
Judge Jeanine Pirro!

Trump/Pirro!

81 posted on 02/24/2016 8:59:46 AM PST by CivilWarBrewing (u)
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

If Trump doesn’t pick Cruz, then he will not get my vote. I can vote the rest of the ballot without having to vote for Trump.

And .. think about it .. Cruz is the only Constitutional Scholar who will be able to keep Trump out of trouble - by writing the best legislation to put forth the Agenda that Trump keeps saying he wants to do. Without a person who can help Trump use the right language, I can never vote for Rubio .. because Rubio is a back-stabber and he has continued to lie about how he voted/supported the Gang of Eight legislation.

The last thing Trump needs is a back-stabber with knowledge of what Trump is planning to do.


83 posted on 02/24/2016 9:01:16 AM PST by CyberAnt ("Peace Through Strength")
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment
Rubio lets the establishment creep in. Cruz does not. West does not. Donny should wait to see what happens with Mrs. Hubble Clinton first.

He needs to see what he is up against.

Cruz would make sure those 10+million or so conservatives that have reservations about Don-Don don't stay home like the 4 million that did over the Mormon Romney.

No establishment candidates need apply. Rubio has to much of the smell of Bush on him.....

Just don't......

86 posted on 02/24/2016 9:03:42 AM PST by JEDI4S (I don't mean to cause trouble...it just happens naturally through the Force!)
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

I doubt Donald would pick anyone ineligible to step up to Pres, if needed.

ALL these comments about marco or cruz would be good VP are wasted space since it’s been discussed on FR repeatedly that they both are likely not truly constitutionally eligible.


90 posted on 02/24/2016 9:06:55 AM PST by b4me
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

Hillary?


93 posted on 02/24/2016 9:09:09 AM PST by Resolute Conservative
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment
Rubio? I don't know how much of a battleground Florida will be to Trump. Yes, the Dade/Broward/WPB Democrat machine is formidable, but I think Trump will be more popular than Romney, McCain, or GW Bush even was. A lot of retired New Yorkers live in Florida.

The swing states in 2012 were Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Virginia, and Ohio. A total of 1,193,729 votes in select precincts across those five states swung the election. Virginia and Ohio would be nice prizes. So would taking New York from Clinton; it's Trump's home state and Clinton's carpet-bag.

So who helps Trump in Virginia and Ohio? Obviously, Kasich helps in Ohio, but at what price? Would Trump get Kasich's support regardless of being on a ticket? Would early Trump supporters see choosing Kasich as selling out the movement?

What if Trump were to bring back somebody like Scott Walker, who dropped out early enough to not be too tarnished and still has a reputation as a fighter in Wisconsin? Walker beat the teacher's unions and Trump wants to bring education control back to the states. Could Walker help in the midwest?

What it Trump were to name Allen West? West is military and would help in Florida and with veterans, and Trump wants to fix Veteran Administration. West might also finally break out as a role model for African-Americans who are finally ready to cross over to vote for Trump.

Who is strong on immigration? How about former Arizona governor Jan Brewer? She was tough on immigration in Arizona, supports the military, fought Obamacare, improved Arizona child protective services, is pro-life, supports the second amendment, and would challenge Clinton for the women's vote.

-PJ

101 posted on 02/24/2016 9:13:43 AM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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