Posted on 02/19/2016 4:31:41 PM PST by Kaslin
Trump’s had enough solid numbers this week to expect he’ll win tomorrow night going away, but if you’re desperate for hope and looking around for data to cling to, there’s plenty out there. CNN’s survey earlier this week showed Trump dropping like a rock after his “Bush lied!” performance at the debate, from 40 percent to 31. Two days ago we got a national poll from WSJ/NBC showing Ted Cruz, whose support has been flat in South Carolina this week, nosing past Trump to take a two-point lead. Now here comes the WSJ/NBC again — this time using a different pollster than the one that conducted their national poll — and finding Cruz creeping up in SC as Trump’s begun to slip. Hmmmm.
Don’t stop believin’. At least for the next 32 hours or so.
Donald Trump is now leading Saturday’s South Carolina Republican primary by 5 points - down from his 16-point lead in the state a month ago, according to results from a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll.
Trump gets support from 28 percent of likely Republican primary voters in the state, while Ted Cruz gets 23 percent. They’re followed by Marco Rubio at 15 percent, Jeb Bush at 13 percent, and John Kasich and Ben Carson at 9 percent each.
In the January NBC/WSJ/Marist poll - conducted before this month’s Iowa and New Hampshire contests - Trump held a 16-point over Cruz, 36 percent to 20 percent, with Rubio at 14 percent and Bush at 9 percent.
Hey, it’s just one poll, right? Actually, no: Just as I’m writing this, a new poll dropped from Clemson University putting Trump at … 28 percent. In fact, take a peek at the RCP average of all South Carolina polls over the last 10 days. On February 14th, the day after his “Bush lied!” comment at the debate, Trump was at 37.0 percent. Five days later he’s at 32.9, partly due to today’s WSJ/NBC but partly also due to a Harper survey that put him at 29. And that average doesn’t include Clemson’s numbers. Also, there have been whispers all week among politicos on social media that some private polls conducted for third-party groups in SC have Trump south of 30. Harry Enten of Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight site dropped this cryptic tweet last night:
I expect Trump to win in SC, but I've seen some stuff (i.e. numbers) over the past 24 hours that makes me a little uneasy…
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) February 18, 2016
Trump has enough of a lead that he’ll probably win even if the debate really did hurt him, but he’s playing with so many different political matches lately that no one really knows if one of them might catch fire. Will his spat with the Pope alienate some last-minute undecideds? Probably not, but maybe! How about him talking up the ObamaCare mandate on CNN last night? Doubtful, but could be! On top of all this, don’t forget that Newt Gingrich trailed badly in the final polls before the election in SC four years ago and ended up blowing out the field. That win was attributed to his famous debate answer attacking the media shortly before SC went to vote, which just reinforces my point here — you don’t really know how a notably good, or bad, soundbite will play in South Carolina right before people go into the booth.
The other X factor right now is Rubio. Go back to the RCP poll average that I linked above and you’ll find that Cruz hasn’t risen as Trump has slipped. The guy who’s rising is Rubio, who was averaging 14.0 percent the day after the debate last weekend and is now right behind Cruz for second with 17.1 percent of the vote, no doubt thanks in part to Nikki Haley’s endorsement. Remember that buzzy ARG poll last night that showed Rubio surging into second with 20 percent? There are new numbers this morning. He’s still surging:
He’s not going to catch Trump at that rate but he could poison Cruz before the SEC primary if these numbers are anywhere near accurate. One caution about Rubio, though: Jay Cost is right that his surge in the overall RCP poll average is mainly just a function of his numbers in the ARG poll. Of the last seven surveys taken (including Clemson), five have him at 15-16 percent, not 20-22. In all five of those polls, he trails Cruz. That’s the other half of the suspense tomorrow night along with Trump’s performance — is the Rubio surge for real, enough for a shocking second-place finish, or is he looking at a possibly very narrow third-place win over Jeb Bush, a great disappointment after all the hype about Haley this week? The complexion of the race will change wildly depending upon which of those pans out.
Exit question via Jonathan Last: Why aren’t Cruz and Rubio blowing up Trump over his “Bush lied!” comments? Is defending Bush that risky even in a Republican primary? And, bonus question: Will this day pass without either of them dropping a new ad about Trump’s support for the mandate? Lots of South Carolinians are making up their minds today. Better get cracking.
Oh good grief.
Tantrum trump supporters just repeat and repeat the same garbage.
It’s boring.
Post #9 of the NBC Poll, Come on we can make it 10!!
deja vu, deja vu, deja vu, deja vu, deja vu, deja vu, deja vu, deja vu, deja vu
Poll-picking is like nose-picking. Fun for sure, but what do you learn really?
Can we say Cruz is under performing?
ok now that Trumps poll number is under 30% any number above that tomorrow will prove he’s over performed
If Trump wins by 20 it’s over.
Actually President Bush’s approval rating in SC is over 80 percent and even higher in TX, so don’t say he is not revered
I have a singular reply to thoise who believe these two outlayer polls.
listen to it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLYeL_z3hRs
Trump’s tactless brays about Iraq are deeply antagonizing to those who lost soldiers there... politicking on their graves, who is advising him?!?!
To make America great again, we must give life to our children and support their mothers.
Defend the Right to Life | Ted Cruz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQlmvEQFgV4
“America needs no words from me to see how your decision in Roe v. Wade has deformed a great nation. The so-called right to abortion has pitted mothers against their children and women against men. It has shown violence and discord at the heart of the most intimate human relationships. It has aggravated the derogation of the father’s role in an increasingly fatherless society. It has portrayed the greatest of gifts ~ a child ~ as a competitor, an intrusion, and an inconvenience. It has nominally accorded mothers unfettered dominion over the independent lives of their physically dependent sons and daughters.
And in granting this unconscionable power, it has exposed many women to unjust and selfish demands from their husbands or other sexual partners. Human rights are not a privilege conferred by government. They are every human being’s entitlement by virtue of his humanity. The right to life does not depend, and must not be declared to be contingent, on the pleasure of anyone else, not even a parent or a sovereign.”
~ Blessed Mother Teresa of Calcutta , “Notable and Quotable”, Wall Street Journal, 2/25/94 , p. A14 ~
Yes they do.....But post articles on positive Cruz Poll number and the thread gets pulled.
Lie of omission;
“Also known as a continuing misrepresentation, a lie by omission occurs when an important fact is left out in order to foster a misconception. Lying by omission includes failures to correct pre-existing misconceptions.”
Example of Ted’s lies of omission, seven lies and misrepresentations in under three minutes. That is walking the talk “the most principled conservative in the race”???
Lie 1 - Pro-abortion and supporting partial birth abortion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=197
Lie 2 - Trump is calling for the same socialized medicine as Sanders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=216
Lie 3 - pushed partial birth abortion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=239
Lie 4 - Even as a candidate Donald says we need to have full on socialized medicine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=298
Lie 5 - at the debates he said we ought to have socialized medicine like Canada and Scotland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=302
Lie 6 - If you as a republican don’t support socalized medicine you are heartless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=312
Lie 7 - If you want to see Bernie sanders style of socialized medicine Trump is your guy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=335
So this is a serious question. In the Iowa caucauses many Dems crossed over to vote against Trump. Does anyone see that happening in SC?
Two more recent polls & NBC/Marist:
Clemson University Poll
Trump 28%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 10%
Bush 9%
Kasich 6%
Carson 6%
Undecided 13%
Overtime poll
Donald Trump 31%
Marco Rubio 25%
Ted Cruz 18%
John Kasich 10%
Jeb Bush 7%
Ben Carson 5%
Undecided 4%
NBC/Marist
Trump 28%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 15%
Bush 13%
Kasich 9%
Carson 9%
Trend from RCP since the debate:
Since the debate Trump is trending down dramatically, while Rubio is trending up dramatically. Cruz is flat.
Averaging all three:
Avg. 29% Trump 28/31/28%
Avg. 19% Cruz 15/18/23%
Avg. 17% Rubio 10/25/15%
Avg. 10% Bush 9/7/13%
Avg. 9% Kasich 6/10/9%
Avg. 7% Carson 6/5/9%
It is insipid to compare differing polls to claim a downward trend.
How many have already voted?
JMHO
Insipid?
Click on the link I provided. Just look at the RCP graph. Trump has plummeted over the past week, while Rubio has climbed almost as much.
FWIW, most folks I know connected with Veterans are so disgusted with their treatment that they aren’t apt to support the wars in the Mideast.
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